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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Berkshire
  • Location: Berkshire
    15 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    Well the refreshed MetO outlook certainly doesn't follow the GFS with the emphasis on wintryhazards and any less cold weather reserved for the south.

    With the ENScso certain of milder weather next week the Met update is surprising.

    Then again how often do the ENS predict a cold spell, the Met is having none of it and the outcome is no cold spell!

    Let's see what things look like once the cold northerly gets established.

    Andy

    I believe those long rang text daily updates are 24 to 48hrs old. Detailed long term is for paying customers. I think some responded about this a few years ago.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Hmmm, I can't imagine the MetO putting out an update they know to be wrong, but hey these are crazy times and nothing surprises me.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    Just now, Penrith Snow said:

    Hmmm, I can't imagine the MetO putting out an update they know to be wrong, but hey these are crazy times and nothing surprises me.

    Andy

    In regard to what situation?, tia

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    No more MetO discussions in here please or they will get moved. Thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
    16 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    You British say: Boom ☺️ Germans: Der Hammer.

    Wonderful chart. Are things getting better with the turning of the month?

    GFSPARAEU12_288_2.png

    I wonder if they also say Tag Zehn or Zwolf in this case. 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    The mood in here is like the d10 correlation graph from GFS. Ups and downs every 6h 🥸

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

    Accuracy varies according to how regular the patterns are... how much volatility, mobility, etc. But usually  when they are consistent over several runs they can be very accurate in picking out the pattern of ridge/trough plus mean upper flow. Its possible to identify new patterns emerging, like the record August bank holiday heatwave of 2019, saw that 12 days in advance and this cold spell, that became visible in November as a pattern developed towards northern blocking.
    Obviously the 6-10 day is more accurate then the 8-14 day.

    But i find they steer you in the right direction and iron out the wilder swings of the ops... when theres conflict between the anomalies and ops at say day ten, the anomalies are usually nearer the mark, i say nearer because no day ten chart verifies exactly as predicted.

    Why?.... well tbh i like doing it, i like the daily challenge, i like the thought process, and i like trying to spot a new pattern first, be it summer heat or winter cold. After this weekends cold snap, which the anomalies confirmed, its all eyes west, cold to the North, milder sweeping across the South, there will a a lot more rain and snow flooding will be an issue.

    Some deep FI charts are hinting at a pressure build over Scandinavia, currently the Anomaly charts dont support that, until they do itll remain a fantasy.

    and that is why i have no problem with why people model watch. if it gives the challenges to try and sort out what might happen in the future, then thats a reason enough. mind you, it really is a big challenge at times 😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    33 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

    I wonder if they also say Tag Zehn or Zwolf in this case. 

    No, we say „immer nur in der Glaskugel“ wich means those BOOOM charts always are in the gipsy Cristal ball (this thing they use to predict the future...)

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Charts showing a mixed bag for the last week in January,but plenty going on before then

    for us cold lovers.will be watching ECM12z carefully for this possible disturbance dropping south southeast,

    could be a a possible snow event around 168 hrs.Requires more confirmation and into reliable time frame.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    16 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    No, we say „immer nur in der Glaskugel“ wich means those BOOOM charts always are in the gipsy Cristal ball (this thing they use to predict the future...)

    The funny thing is, we Dutch use this German term as well. Mostly the abbreviation: GKB. (bereich)

     

    11 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Charts showing a mixed bag for the last week in January,but plenty going on before then

    for us cold lovers.will be watching ECM12z carefully for this possible disturbance dropping south southeast,

    could be a a possible snow event around 168 hrs.Requires more confirmation and into reliable time frame.

    I'm intrested in the long term as well. Para/ GEM pressure rising at Scandinavia.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.0a5040502ae775237a33a7ae9efa7aa0.png

    image.thumb.png.8dbd24c8038147ee2f4838952797b321.png

    image.thumb.png.6d95f06d4c7e3b4af0e63367a9a932bc.png

    Into FI the Para isn't without interest 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    54 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Channel Low anyone?

     

    image.thumb.png.fc0f0f2172e7372cdab91c45ed2c8944.pngimage.thumb.png.0a4585fd14aa5fe288a16aa1cf0fc5ef.pngimage.thumb.png.b6a4b5cce0f574f475e24b21b0687aea.pngimage.thumb.png.778990b7323acb666f7aa2bba7d72629.png

    To warm the cockles of the Southerners' hearts (or freeze them) 🤣

    if only Purga .....30cm for my location .......only 14 days away. only probelm is seen about 20 charts at 10 days plus teleport me to FI please

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl

    I would be highly sceptical of a few progressive op runs atm. With the MJO on the move I think the pattern will back west a touch from time to time with a bigger risk of lows modelled to vigorously and more likely disrupt. This as a scandi ridge gets modelled day 10 to 14 imo. 

    As ever, we will see.

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Euro trough digging more south quite visible for Italy at day 5 can only be a positive. 

    542687D9-731C-4319-AF4B-58C4E0B224F2.thumb.png.9c412b1c6deee27b440376be18bb3cf4.pngA440DA52-71C3-4E68-B1DC-24338083E327.thumb.png.a25c49b9b0e0868ec4193a8f41ebc9d5.png

    Hmm. Doesn’t look so mild... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    ECM day 6 is interesting - can the trough disrupt significantly?

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM looking a little more interesting at 144 with the ridge ahead of the weaker Atlantic trough.......

    spacer.png

    Saturdays feature is non existent at 500hpa, need to see ppn charts to see embedded fronts etc.

    spacer.png

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