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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    ECM 12z day 9 full of potential 🙂 if we can get that low to shift east/south east near Denmark at day 10, no it just wants to take up residence in another place, guess where?...heading to that bloody Norwegian coast!!!

    Okay these are just details of charts I'm waffling on about which most probably won't come about and at that time scale...but what's the bets that limpet low of that fore-mentioned coastline scuppers real cold getting to the UK at some point?

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    As pleasing as EC is, I'd want to see an improvement in the mean...

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    I think your GEFS ensemble perts Matt are a bad omen...we could have 19 decent ones and the worst one will verify!

     

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    18 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    c64d13ae84884520fafd6eabf10dbfe4.jpg

    Nice one Vikos..my German friend...I do think there’s a chance based on the 12z output I’ve mentioned, eg / i.e...Ukmo, ECM..GEFS 12z...onwards and upwards hopefully..or rather downwards as far as temperatures are concerned! 🥶 😉 

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    T216

    image.thumb.gif.c6f406d0e3bb49c28988f67b327da8d0.gif

    image.thumb.gif.77b97073a5f515c11cd14fc62f03fe9c.gif

    if we get to there with that cold and it’s followed by this....it’s a snowfest with blizzards for SW and likely the Southern counties too

    image.thumb.gif.7738371bd8170c7697b5ccfcb16d320d.gif

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Think all the seasonal forecasts have bust,although someone mentioned the chinese! model may have been  the nearest to the actual reality.I cant make head or tail on their website to find out.

    http://bcc.ncc-cma.net/

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
    6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Remember this glosea run from December?

    image.thumb.png.4e6e16b89fa4db4a8170bc0089f19160.png

    image.thumb.png.482167cf1129c481746d511a8f37a5fe.png

     

    3 month smoothed average - chocolate teapot. But where is the greatest fail this season? Maybe you might like to comment more accurately on that.

    Well the pressure anomaly is way off but in the end it is pretty spot on temp wise so far for most of the Europe. UK got pretty lucky in December with that pattern but let's not kid ourselves, this winter has been very poor so far.

    image.thumb.png.3fe7904d3434a1c82ae225aca2dcf16c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Just thought I'd add - haven't the models done well with this spell? They predicted a good Greenland ridge 10 or so days ago, but not a great one - and now they've been pretty close to the mark with the transition back to the Atlantic. No massive SSW issues!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    A lot of talk of weekend snow but it won't stick around as milder air marches back in midweek with daytime maxima in the south likely to be well into double figures. From there, hints upstream developments might shift the mild or very mild pattern to a more unsettled and cooler pattern towards the end of the month. As to whether February produces the goods for winter fans, that remains to be seen.

    Don asked me yesterday if I thought we would see a cold February - I think we'll see an extended cold spell in February but an entire cold month looks improbable. If we get 10-14 days of well below average temperatures, we'll be doing well. That's nothing to do with anything - that's how winter operates in the UK.

    For now, let's see what tonight's offerings provide - a sumptuous banquet or thin gruel?

    12Z GEM: T+120 takes us to Wednesday next week (January 27th). A mild SW'ly air flow covers most of the British isles with HP over western and south-western Iberia, a trough in mid-Atlantic and a residual LP near Iceland as well as another LP far to the east over the Baltic States. Mild air with positive uppers covers all but the far north of the British Isles. From there, small lobes of energy ejected from the core of the Atlantic trough cross the British Isles to the north but a new LP developing to the south of the main trough deepens and re-aligns the trough as it swings NE while a new powerful storm emerges out of North America. Heights are suppressed further south over Iberia and North Africa. Mild or very mild air over most of Britain but colder air in the far north by T+180 with a weak push of heights to the north west. That push of heights from the north west towards the northern North Sea causes the trough to disrupt close to the British Isle but the trough persists to the west and by T+240 it looks as though any wedge of heights is giving way to a new push from the Atlantic. It remains mild over most parts with any cooler air restricted to the far north.

    image.thumb.png.490bdbb59152630a0028d05a20106e90.pngimage.thumb.png.1d3bdd7ec05c5423c2886f0287202967.pngimage.thumb.png.649d646419b006c7c5e834c8d599fe26.png

    Not much for coldies from the GEM run in all honesty with the Atlantic firmly in charge at this time.

    12Z GFS OP - on then to the American model. At T+120 not too different to GEM. The tiniest wedge of heights near Iceland but basically the Atlantic is in charge with the mild regime further supported by HP over Iberia. A chain of secondary LP are developing in the circulation of the Atlantic LP as the colder and warmer airmasses interact. The wedge of heights to the north west is significant as it causes successive LP systems to head east across the centre of the British Isles. By T+180 yet another active LP is approaching south-west Ireland with a shallow trough over Scandinavia. Mild air persists over the south but further air colder air remains and in the far north the milder air never really arrives. From there, the evolution gets a little messier and more interesting - the next Atlantic LP crosses the British isles and pulls down a brief PM interlude but he big storm coming from the lower latitudes begins to fill as it moves NE allowing weak heights to build to the north so by T+240 a slack pressure pattern exists over the British Isles. Colder air has pushed back with uppers below -4 for most but milder air again approaching slowly from the south west.

    image.thumb.png.94d0cf26c8b3899ecb82143dca3961b6.pngimage.thumb.png.52ec7b29525cb6aa6c0bbf744b1c7751.pngimage.thumb.png.f4450e375ee328f89e9cda977b4cadc2.png

     

    Certainly a more interesting if less clear cut evolution from GFS OP suggesting a slowing Atlantic and opportunities for amplification. 

    No Parallel again tonight so Control steps in - as you might expect, very similar to the OP at T+120. Moving on and a couple of LP disrupt and move east across the British Isles but at T+180 a new deep LP is well to the west of Ireland with some early hints of heights building over Scandinavia. The first LP moves NE and then stalls to the north west of the British isles by T+240 while a new strong LP from lower latitudes moves towards the British Isles. 850s slightly negative over the British Isles suggesting average temperatures at this time.

    image.thumb.png.c7ce2f92087a78ed0f4530a97bf207df.pngimage.thumb.png.582ba79645fcda4a750822304fb06a26.pngimage.thumb.png.254046458a2020bf93fb8314d137bbdf.png

    Like the OP, Control ends interesting if inconclusive.

    12Z ECM - no real surprises at T+120 with a flow of long-fetch SW'lies between an HP over south-west Iberia and an Atlantic trough. The trough is generating secondary features to its southern and eastern flank. From there, the ECM evolution diverges from some of the others - one LP crosses the British isles with another taking a big chunk of the trough's energy and moving east across southern Britain at T+192 with a NE'ly following to the north and west and a weak ridge from Iceland south while a shallow trough is upstream of that and a new LP emerges from lower latitudes. Colder air has displaced the milder air in the north and west but it remains mild to the south and east.  By T+240, a complex trough sits over the British isles with one LP centre to the south-west and a second over Norway leaving a cyclonic flow for most parts. Heights extend north west from the Azores and are over the far NE of Scandinavia. Cold air with uppers below -4 covers all parts.

    image.thumb.png.cd2fde42397ef62d32e442563b2ab4ae.pngimage.thumb.png.c39874404c7733af7ee6c06c73662e73.pngimage.thumb.png.d41d592f9d43531e61bb1097997fbbd2.png

    ECM ends cold and also interesting so could we be looking at a brief mild interlude of 3-5 days rather than, as seemed likely yesterday evening, a 10-14 day mild spell? Too early to say but with GFS and ECM sniffing for change, GEM looks a little on its own this evening.

    Looking further ahead, the T+312 and T+384 directions of travel from OP and Control.

    image.thumb.png.3cf5662763b35886f1adda46e8df43a2.pngimage.thumb.png.7944756759fd3c2fb0d8147eff5ab396.png

    image.thumb.png.de68b4acc41c08e6f27bdc24f7aa1cf8.pngimage.thumb.png.6a10eaa20f2609812d1dca1a5a11fb21.png

    So how do you want your -12 uppers, via a Greenland HP or a Scandinavian HP? The net effect is the same but hugely different with OP keeping the PV over Northern Russia and Control bringing the PV back to its usual home. 

    Conclusion: plenty of ifs, buts and maybes about the output this evening. The milder spell may be shorter lived than seemed likely with the Atlantic trough disrupting toward the British Isles after which opportunities for amplification develop (it would seem). I'm not sure where this is going but it's going to be interesting finding out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    As pleasing as EC is, I'd want to see an improvement in the mean...

    I think we got a little one D8-D10. Jet further south, cold creeping back down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Sun
  • Location: Bristol
    54 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    Go on then Sign Me Up!

    I have walked down so many garden paths in the last few years what's another one!

    Netweather model watchers are the 21st Century equivalent of our brave soldiers in the First World War going over the top only to be gunned down within a few seconds! Least we forget....  

    Andy

    hqdefault.jpg

    Probably the worst analogy ever. Dear oh dear

    Edited by Bald Eagle
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    30 minutes ago, MJB said:

    @Catacol very valid points and in particular as to who has seen snow  , let's not kid ourselves here if that snow had fallen in the SE it would have been headline news for days and a lot would have been saying " what a great SSW " 

    Realism 

    True. And that's because the south-east is by far the most densely populated part of the UK. Therefore for most people in the UK, the SSW so far has simply not-delivered. Happy for those of you in the north of course 😐

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    43 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    It's been a fascinating winter and a great winter for some.

    Fascinating? Perhaps in terms of teleconnections. Of course the SSW, the different synoptics are nice to see. But in the end, lies the real thrill what you can experience with your eyes, away from the computer/ smartphone.

    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Fascinating? Perhaps in terms of teleconnections. Of course the SSW, the different synoptics are nice to see. But in the end, lies the real thrill what you can experience with your eyes, away from the computer/ smartphone.

    This is true Sebastian, but as always the weather you experience with your eyes is always localised.

    Ask those in northern England and Scotland what they have seen and you'd get a list of extreme events.....snowfalls.....heavy rains....and some very very cold nights. Its all relative to your location as always.

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