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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The movement and squeeze from the north on approaching trough at t144 to t168 looks really good to me....I think an improvement coming for cold to dig back in quickly.  The trough to be forced to slide SEwards

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
33 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM still taking the front on Sunday further North / East than other models. Up to 13cm south mids! I’d go for cotswolds / Chikterns being among best places 

FC59EA87-911B-43AE-99D2-8BD90B91EF66.jpeg

AE4713C9-96CC-460F-BBD0-BBA9D2A44A07.jpeg

742FE5B9-3096-40B2-9A1D-F333870339FD.jpeg

Slightly sceptical, but it would be welcomed here! 

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The movement and squeeze from the north on approaching trough at t144 to t168 looks really good to me....I think an improvement coming for cold to dig back in quickly.  The trough to be forced to slide SEwards

 

BFTP 

Good call

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No fireworks from the ECM between day 4 and 5 .

The shortwave west of Norway gets too far nw and stops a cleaner ridge extension sw .

The UKMO has the ridge more favourably aligned .

Expect more changes from ecm i think!!think its struggling!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Slightly sceptical, but it would be welcomed here! 

Be more than welcomed here lol 

Ben Rich hinted there could be more than just a few cm's 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well the ECM has given us something at day 9 

image.thumb.png.b3a3c064cd9ed75af91c7a039253ffc6.pngimage.thumb.png.2c061e759966ef793a277ccb97ce68cb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Just now, Ice Day said:

Well the ECM has given us something at day 9 

image.thumb.png.b3a3c064cd9ed75af91c7a039253ffc6.pngimage.thumb.png.2c061e759966ef793a277ccb97ce68cb.png

@Griff and @Battleground Snow were too damn quick

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Posted
  • Location: Chiltern
  • Location: Chiltern
42 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM still taking the front on Sunday further North / East than other models. Up to 13cm south mids! I’d go for cotswolds / Chikterns being among best places 

FC59EA87-911B-43AE-99D2-8BD90B91EF66.jpeg

AE4713C9-96CC-460F-BBD0-BBA9D2A44A07.jpeg

742FE5B9-3096-40B2-9A1D-F333870339FD.jpeg

Interesting and definitely would take this. We have had nothing this way (chilterns , Bucks). We usually do fairly well. 

 

AROME AND APERGE don't seem to give as much as this. As always still a few days out

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Not quite what I expected at day 10 - but this would surely lead to some fun and games days 11 onwards?

image.thumb.png.b27515d290df2cf0529cb2d54c97253f.pngimage.thumb.png.39e0520150e892113d42fe11889653f6.png  

Much better run from the ECM, but it's been flapping around a bit lately so good or bad, big pinches of salt needed.  I think we'll need to wait for a few days yet until we get early Feb into the semi-reliable.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
19 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Not quite what I expected at day 10 - but this would surely lead to some fun and games days 11 onwards?

image.thumb.png.b27515d290df2cf0529cb2d54c97253f.pngimage.thumb.png.39e0520150e892113d42fe11889653f6.png  

Much better run from the ECM, but it's been flapping around a bit lately so good or bad, big pinches of salt needed.  I think we'll need to wait for a few days yet until we get early Feb into the semi-reliable.

Agreed, looking for amplification around day 8 anything sooner would be an unexpected bonus, but over all nothing like as flat as had been modelled

Hopefully, and it looks like it might, the Atlantic should be closer to the GFS - more runs needed - whilst the GEM has other teases too but not looking as favourable to the west... 

ECH1-240.gif

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Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Good that the ECM adjustments also have their roots in a more influential Euro trough.

Most models have shifted in unison - similar to when they all shifted toward a dominant Atlantic trough and Euro high yesterday morning. Makes you wonder!

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