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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    This one?

    ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.9046675ec030f908b52a441f4475f4ad.gif

    yes, the links changed

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    And there’s still hope 🤗

    Just that at the moment DWW☺️

    Just now, Don said:

    Not great are they.

    no but they only go out to day ten,the interest still lies past that when hopefully amplification takes hold

    the latest gefs ens look better than the 12z going into Feb with the mean getting down to -5...

    ens_image.thumb.png.422899761aeae53ad58a474a3d28e430.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    This perturbation has it nailed!

    image.thumb.png.6c3cdafd5c24f6e0ce5568123e0e4cde.png

    You just know what’s going to happen on the 0z though don’t you!

    TBF there are lots of good ones in there maybe 50% look like they would go blocked, northerly U.K. high or snowy battleground.

    That’s a signal and we can’t ignore it...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

    I think the amplitude matters too Don, the Nina imprint might weaken it so it’s not strong enough to really shake things up in the NA sector, 2018 had a record breaking phase 6/7 push that IMHO was as big a driver for the blocking as the split in the strat was. 
    As I say if the reversal + a >1 amplitude MjO 6/7 wave verifies then the 18z is a good manifestation of the probability space. Big if mind, especially as you say the Nina factor which Marco himself is still referencing...

    Absolutely.  However, another point isn't La Nina now weakening anyway?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    yes, the links changed

    ?

    i have been using this same link for years Feb,what has changed?

    WWW.METEO24.FR

    Prévisions Météo gratuites pour toute la France : Alertes pluie, neige, verglas sur 14 jours. Images radar et satellites. Plus de 2 millions de lieux référencés dans le monde.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    Just now, Don said:

    Absolutely.  However, another point isn't La Nina now weakening anyway?

    Yes, I mentioned this in my earlier post. I imagine the dynamics of how well it’s  able to cut off tropical convection whilst it is weakening are extremely complicated and I can’t profess to have more than a rudimentary understanding of the matter.

    What I can do though is see a trend and this 18z GEFS is the first with real mean ridge visible on the pressure charts, building just west of the UK here not just the phantom reds to the north  in the anomalies...

    image.thumb.png.53cc3c12d1d3c98d53769aeae80e9cd2.png

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Is it me or does the Atlantic look as dead as a dodo past day ten on the gefs ens?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    ?

    i have been using this same link for years Feb,what has changed?

    WWW.METEO24.FR

    Prévisions Météo gratuites pour toute la France : Alertes pluie, neige, verglas sur 14 jours. Images radar et satellites. Plus de 2 millions de lieux référencés dans le monde.

     

    i was using weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html - now it takes you to something else

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The latest...

    762228093_ens_image(2).thumb.png.8dd317c218c361f6736902862236141d.png

    if we can capitalize on the extended!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    18 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

    This perturbation has it nailed!

    image.thumb.png.6c3cdafd5c24f6e0ce5568123e0e4cde.png

    You just know what’s going to happen on the 0z though don’t you!

    TBF there are lots of good ones in there maybe 50% look like they would go blocked, northerly U.K. high or snowy battleground.

    That’s a signal and we can’t ignore it...

    Awesome chart. Was about to throw in the towel on this winter until Matt posted that tweet from the Meto chief, and now gfs seem to be showing the impacts of the SSW and another one is going to happen to increase the chance of a bitter Feb. 

    The deep cold is there over Siberia, can it finally get to the UK for February. 

    SST are also lower in February too. 

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

    Not much of interest within 10 days on the GFS however the GEM shows some interest with a possible Scandi High/Euro Ridge at Day 9/10 maybe an evolution to keep an eye on.

    However there a lot of important features that need to go in our favour in particular the main low beginning to slide around Day 6. This helps to allow heights to rise over Scandi then secondly  with the two main lows out in the Atlantic at Day 7/8 to favourably phase for us otherwise it will stop the heights over Northern Europe from being reinforced by the Azores RIdge through the UK.

     gem-0-228.thumb.png.4af5ec65cdc20ece6c4eb3b1ca8bc36c.png

     

    Whether it is picking up on signals mentioned below and is factoring them in too early or not is yet to be seen. 

    There may be some other details I missed but I claim to be no expert at this. Just wondering If it is possible should certain elements go our way whether it is possible for some cooler weather sooner than we think. Especially with the La-Nina signal gradually weakening and the MJO starting to become more favourable. Especially Phase 6/7 tend to promote UK Ridges and Scandinavian heights. 

    May I muse that if we do get a Scandi High locked in is it possible that if the MJO transitions over to Phase 8/1 that into Mid February we may transition from Scandi High to Greenland/Griceland High whether it be from Atlantic Ridge or from retrogression of heights from Northern Europe. 

    Either way I'd say things look fairly favourable for us we just have to be patient in my opinion a bit like 2018 it took almost a month to reap the benefits it's only just over two weeks since the SSW happened. 

     

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    GFS ends with another cold spell developing, so it's by no means over yet.

    Next week looks to me rather like a box of fireworks that blew up on the ground, lows going off in every direction, generally mild but notice that the Tuesday low has had most of its mild sector removed, now a rather weak warming signal there. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

    Awesome chart. Was about to throw in the towel on this winter until Matt posted that tweet from the Meto chief, and now gfs seem to be showing the impacts of the SSW and another one is going to happen to increase the chance of a bitter Feb. 

    The deep cold is there over Siberia, can it finally get to the UK for February. 

    SST are also lower in February too. 

    Yes, finally the ssw effect s are being felt 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    27 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    Yes, finally the ssw effect s are being felt 

    I think we need to wait before making that statement ref majority nw Europe ....

     many in Scotland and n England, Scandinavia and Asia  would say that they’ve already seen the effects .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The path of the shallow system further sw on Exeter’s models than gfs, icon 
     

    image.thumb.png.f71e7517eda1c07d2403ef158412483d.pngimage.thumb.png.e4a86126f9a5d8e5416b9e25807b76a5.png    

    This could come down to nowcasting the way it's going. The GFS does seem a bit ahead of itself compared to other models as it shows quite a bit of snow for quite an area during Sunday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    EC going for another 50-60mm of unwelcome rain for parts of NW England next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Snow still there on ecm for sunday??!!has gfs improved?!!any midweek snow  or has it diminished?!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Day 10 anyone? Easterly into East/SE at yep day ten, uppers not cold at this stage but one to watch on ECM

    ECM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Just a quick one before work, but the best set of FI GEFS for quite a while:

    image.thumb.png.eef0f9e335a30ee6a0a3084e4a908fde.png

    To be honest, that's quite a turnaround.  Will it be there tonight though?

    Have a good day all.

     

    Good question, but probably as good a start to the day as one could have hoped for (yes I have a bias for cold weather in winter). 

    👍 

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