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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
    21 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    It's the odor wich is hanging in the air in here.... deep frustration and resignation. That's what's odd to me.

    (I have the same odors in my german forum atm.)

    Not really that surprising after two months of great NH pattern which delivered almost nothing in Europe (unless you live in Madrid). Not much to hunt at the moment. Cold air is blown away from Europe and GEFS are mild apart from an odd run like control from this morning. All we have are signals for February which let's be honest probably won't deliver anyway 😃

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
    13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    With uppers of -2 and flow from the west I’d says it’s very unlikely to see snow that far south. Perhaps high ground of Wales, Pennines and Moors but not low ground sub 200m

    Yes think that is very unlikely, the weekend looks best looking at 850-1000s and dew points (if there is anything falling):

     

    Screenshot_20210119-153648.png

    Screenshot_20210119-153903.png

    Edited by Butter Pie
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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    With uppers of -2 and flow from the west I’d says it’s very unlikely to see snow that far south. Perhaps high ground of Wales, Pennines and Moors but not low ground sub 200m

    makes you wonder why a high res model like this cant work that out ......

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    54 minutes ago, MAF said:

    again, forgive me if this is not model discussion Mods; 

    So as a percentage you would give the NOAA charts an above 50% rating. And thats what i am asking everyone here, how reliable would you give a winter model a rating. Obviously other seasons may be easier to model, but it seems winter is the most unreliable season to even try and predict past 5 days. 

    basically, it boils down to me wondering "why are you looking so far ahead?" when even tomorrow might not turn out to be as forecast. And, yes, i totally agree that an answer to that question might be that 'its the fun of the chase' And i also am a person of belief that 'each to their own' is how things should be 🙂 

    Accuracy varies according to how regular the patterns are... how much volatility, mobility, etc. But usually  when they are consistent over several runs they can be very accurate in picking out the pattern of ridge/trough plus mean upper flow. Its possible to identify new patterns emerging, like the record August bank holiday heatwave of 2019, saw that 12 days in advance and this cold spell, that became visible in November as a pattern developed towards northern blocking.
    Obviously the 6-10 day is more accurate then the 8-14 day.

    But i find they steer you in the right direction and iron out the wilder swings of the ops... when theres conflict between the anomalies and ops at say day ten, the anomalies are usually nearer the mark, i say nearer because no day ten chart verifies exactly as predicted.

    Why?.... well tbh i like doing it, i like the daily challenge, i like the thought process, and i like trying to spot a new pattern first, be it summer heat or winter cold. After this weekends cold snap, which the anomalies confirmed, its all eyes west, cold to the North, milder sweeping across the South, there will a a lot more rain and snow flooding will be an issue.

    Some deep FI charts are hinting at a pressure build over Scandinavia, currently the Anomaly charts dont support that, until they do itll remain a fantasy.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    14 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    UKMO 12z is very interesting at t96. Potential snow event for the south depending on the uppers?

    EE81B424-8CF1-418A-9CE7-1CA3AAC67756.gif

    Yep, UKMO with the feature quite well organised, Almost splits it in two?

    spacer.png

    850 s marginal but ok I think, depending on flow.

    spacer.png

    GFS not so keen

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    Yep, UKMO with the feature quite well organised, Almost splits it in two?

    spacer.png

    850 s marginal but ok I think, depending on flow.

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    GFS not so keen

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    The uppers look fairly good to me, at least there’s no obvious warm sector on the t96 chart. Hope it has support from the GEM/ECM 12z runs later.👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here.

    I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get myself back into the groove again.

    114-574UK.thumb.GIF.e8383e9f0ce92470718c6d689ff66623.GIF

    Stay safe guys, the sooner the country gets vaccinated the better!

    Great to see you back posting again Day 10. Very glad to hear that you’re recovering well from the virus.😊

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here.

    I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get myself back into the groove again.

    114-574UK.thumb.GIF.e8383e9f0ce92470718c6d689ff66623.GIF

    Stay safe guys, the sooner the country gets vaccinated the better!

    Nice looking chart, still plenty of winter left so many surprises to pop up anytime, also same here had symptoms and had to isolate. Get well soon mate. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Sale 35m asl
    2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here.

    I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get myself back into the groove again.

    114-574UK.thumb.GIF.e8383e9f0ce92470718c6d689ff66623.GIF

    Stay safe guys, the sooner the country gets vaccinated the better!

    Glad to have you back @Day 10 !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
    2 hours ago, chris55 said:

    Saturdays runner is a chance for some places in the south to seem the first snowfall of the winter.

    Track and intensity are still very uncertain, and we'll need to wait a few more days to firm up on details, could well miss us altogether!! But seeing as the chance is there its something worth following over the next few runs. We need to see it develop as it moves east spinning up momentum to pull it further north into the UK.

    EC tracks it across the south Saturday with main snow risk to the south east.

    spacer.png

    GFS operational 6z takes it into northern France.

    spacer.png

    UKMO doesn't really develop it, keeping it well south.

    spacer.png

     

    P22 on GFS ensembles is a good scenario with 20 cm for Westcountry and 10cm for London, highlighting a swath of southern England getting snowfall.

    spacer.png

    Snow depth charts for London show the risk of the system delivering snow, but the mean also shows confidence is very low with only 6-7 members bringing worthwhile amounts.

    spacer.png

     

    Overall, something to keep an eye on, but not to get to excited about at this point 🙂

     

    Can I ask where I can get the snow depth chart? Is it on xtra ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Models for this week as showing pretty similar weather to what we had for last week.....rain midweek, snow turning to rain for the weekend.

    It's "every seventh wave" weather.  I find it weird how we do get spells of weather that appear to repeat themselves every seven days.... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    7 minutes ago, Biggin said:

    Can I ask where I can get the snow depth chart? Is it on xtra ??

    Its on WetterZentrale, 

    link 🙂 

    Go to variables for different selections.

    WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

    Forecasted Snow (png) from GFS, 12Z

     

    Ensemble P3 is going for 43.2cm of snow in London on Saturday....... seems a bit much lol....maybe it broken.....or maybe not 😉 (Click on New Snow Depth to see the full chart once your on Wetter)

    spacer.png

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    5 minutes ago, Biggin said:

    Can I ask where I can get the snow depth chart? Is it on xtra ??

    I use this but not 100% gospel

    Screenshot_20210119_162931_com.android.chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne
  • Location: Eastbourne

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&runpara=1

    At around this period (132hrs) the // is showing some heights rising in the Atlantic between our lows. Is it possible that with a little less forcing from the Jet Stream that maybe this height rise can gain some traction? Even if it only produces a wedge of heights being left behind?

     

    Sent from a long term lurker 😃

    p.s. no idea how to link a picture but I am sure you can all find the image I was trying to show

    Edited by grca
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    14 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Its on WetterZentrale, 

    link 🙂 

    Go to variables for different selections.

    WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

    Forecasted Snow (png) from GFS, 12Z

     

    Ensemble P3 is going for 43.2cm of snow in London on Saturday....... seems a bit much lol....maybe it broken.....or maybe not 😉 (Click on New Snow Depth to see the full chart once your on Wetter)

    spacer.png

    I think central London would be lucky to see 0.2cm 🤣

    GEM goes to far south to effect us. Looks like UKMO is on its own with the northerly track of a proper low across southern areas. It’s top model at that range though,  so wouldn’t bet against it

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Well the refreshed MetO outlook certainly doesn't follow the GFS with the emphasis on wintryhazards and any less cold weather reserved for the south.

    With the ENScso certain of milder weather next week the Met update is surprising.

    Then again how often do the ENS predict a cold spell, the Met is having none of it and the outcome is no cold spell!

    Let's see what things look like once the cold northerly gets established.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I think central London would be lucky to see 0.2cm 🤣

    GEM goes to far south to effect us. Looks like UKMO is on its own with the northerly track of a proper low across southern areas. It’s top model at that range though,  so wouldn’t bet against it

    Here is the corresponding 500 chart for that ensemble member at that time........Looks more like UKMO.......Ill get my coat.  AND SLEDGE 🤣

    spacer.png

    UKMO

    spacer.png

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
  • Location: essex/suffolk/cambs border
    5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

    Well the refreshed MetO outlook certainly doesn't follow the GFS with the emphasis on wintryhazards and any less cold weather reserved for the south.

    With the ENScso certain of milder weather next week the Met update is surprising.

    Then again how often do the ENS predict a cold spell, the Met is having none of it and the outcome is no cold spell!

    Let's see what things look like once the cold northerly gets established.

    Andy

    I think the Cold Northerly is where all this will end up. Something like the spell with the infamous M11 fiasco. Can’t remember the Year. Later ECM charts are on it and so now are the Met. 

    0725D567-60D2-4E83-A6E4-7EF1B6EE1632.png

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