Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Some interesting news from Marco this evening!

Link: https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1352345781584461824?s=21

An important point to highlight here (for all the snowflakes...metaphorically, not literally lol) is that we have seen a pretty impressive reverse flow in the NH from the original warming... see here

 

It just hasn't set up in a favourable position for the UK as of yet (a decent sustained Atlantic ridge would have sorted that but you can't win them all (66-33 for sustained cold are the odds I think) so moving forward our odds increase and the ongoing effects of the previous SSW along with these new warmings should increase our chances of a prolonged cold spell even more. But nothing is ever certain. Just keep up with the charts and enjoy the ride is what I say

[Battleground Snow]

6 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

It was very weak la Nina around -0.4, when the MJO passed through West Pacific.

Interestingly the 2018 event was an moderate Nina that weakened, it also featured a SSWE

@IDO , maybe we are both correct on this. The moderate la Nina has interfered with the MJO so far, but now it's weakening, the MJO may be able to progress easier

 

@IDO can it weaken enough before we run out of winter time?

Latest multi model ENSO forecast.

 

[sebastiaan1973]

EC46.

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

[Tim Bland]

16 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Paul Sherman was just talking about this and how poor the ECM has been for verifying snow position in the south east this winter 0 out of 6! show me that chart at day 24 hours out and maybe we've got a chance.

iCON is similar (see below) and GFS just drops the front south so it misses eastern areas. It’s not ECM Vs all others, but I get Paul's point ..ECM doesn’t have a great track record. At 76hrs it verifies better than most models though. Let’s see what the pub run has to say. Higher res models such as Hirlam & Euro 4 will give us clarity tomorrow 

[sebastiaan1973]

EC46 update MJO

 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC46 update MJO

 

Hey, well we can wait for the cold a couple more weeks, it is not like we have anything else to do is it?  

[Tim Bland]

It was first week of Feb a few days ago, he said second week of Feb this morning and now it’s middle of Feb! At this rate it will be April being talked up by the weekend  

[Scandinavian High.]

Looking interesting 

[Methuselah]

So here are the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles. And aren't they exciting: It's a 47, 56, 63, 65, 69, 79, 85 87... Oh poo, it's not:

    

My sincerest apologies to Mr. Cash!

Edited January 21, 2021 by General Cluster

[Phil Blake]

2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Looking interesting 

Am I the only one that can see Elvis with a big nose? Lol. Looking good though

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Looking interesting 

Is that Pablo Picasso's rendition of @Griff's avatar?

Edited January 21, 2021 by General Cluster

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Is the Pablo Picasso's rendition of @Griff's avatar?

Beavis and Butt-Head - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

(it's a very close likeness, sadly, as it happens) 

Here's a chart

Edited January 21, 2021 by Griff

[Day 10]

28 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Looking interesting 

The Ginger Elvis with his out of date Movember tash blowing smoke over Greenland, every little helps I suppose. He's getting Greenland High! 

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Good overall agreement in the pattern for the next ten days but quite a lot of detail still to iron out.

Two main points of uncertainty , one at day 3 and the other day 5 into 6 .

Day 3 ,  a band of snow possible crossing from the west or a shortwave running se as per the UKMO . This of course will make a difference to who gets any snow.

Day 5 into 6 .

The UKMO looks least interested in any snow as fronts move in from the Atlantic as you can see its day 4 throws a shortwave east but instead of disrupting cleanly it then becomes absorbed into the main trough which makes the day 5 angle of attack less favourable. It’s persisted with this shortwave for several runs whilst neither the ECM or GFS are interested .

Day 7 into 9 

The Azores high looks like winning this as it noses ne bringing some milder conditions with one caveat here the cold air still remains close to the north so that area has a bit more uncertainty .

Day 10 onwards 

The Azores high looks like getting flattened , with signs of it then displacing further west .

Looking at the potential from there , for coldies I think it would be look ne if anything is to develop more favourably .

The build of pressure into the Arctic from the Pacific building towards the Svalbard area would help push the Euro troughing further south opening up something from the ne .

That’s not too much of a leap of faith given the overall trends around that day ten mark .

Something to keep an eye on if those day ten charts count down .

Good summary here.

Possible direction of travel, azores high advecting back west allowing deeper troughing into Europe, northerly then follows, with heights building in behind and ridging NE. Seems plausible and ties in with Met Office thoughts. A shortlived milder blip end Jan followed by cold conditions.

[SqueakheartLW]

Someone give us Member 1 from the 12z GFS for our grand opening to February 2021 please

At least it had backing from the GEM on it's 00z run but the 12z isn't showing all of its ensembles yet, just the operational and it doesn't go out this far yet

I'll take either of these options for 1st February thank you. Now come on weather gods and deliver either of these beasterlies

[Matt H]

ICON 18z is still showing the band of snow on Sunday, will be interesting to see what the high-res models make of this system tomorrow.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ICON 18z is still showing the band of snow on Sunday, will be interesting to see what the high-res models make of this system tomorrow.

GFS though pants! not moving east

[ANYWEATHER]

A Rare Westerly Snowfall is likely on Sunday across Southern  Britain.....Just watch this Space....?

[chris55]

GFS for Sunday at 4pm. 

[Bartlett High]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

GFS for Sunday at 4pm. 

Looking good for me........for now.

[sheikhy]

Gfs leaves the snow across the west and wales!!ecm and icon take it east!!gfs 00z joins ecm in the morning?!!

[Griff]

Pub run is fairly consistent so far with 12z...

If it ends the same (), cool... 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Its must be said again..Overall poor model output.. but the EC46 is very promising it as to be said.Its possible we could revert back to more blocking next month...Matt H also pointing this fact out. Also of note  Marco P just pointed out to me that its only been 2 weeks since the warming,and perhaps the very frigid conditions in siberia are a result of it...and that this warmer spell incoming could be the la nina imprint on things.. So we could still be waiting for the impacts on the UK of that earlier warming,and with further warming likely and a lag time we could be pushing cold conditions into late spring....seriously its possible.

[Don]

4 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational..bring on the spring warmth I say!...not a very subtle use of reverse psychology from a coldie I admit..it might work though?!

 

Yeah and you can bet your bottom dollar those charts will verify!  Always the way!

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Its must be said again..Overall poor model output.. but the EC46 is very promising it as to be said.Its possible we could revert back to more blocking next month...Matt H also pointing this fact out. Also of note  Marco P just pointed out to me that its only been 2 weeks since the warming,and perhaps the very frigid conditions in siberia are a result of it...and that this warmer spell incoming could be the la nina imprint on things.. So we could still be waiting for the impacts on the UK of that earlier warming,and with further warming likely and a lag time we could be pushing cold conditions into late spring....seriously its possible.