Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think its foolish to be trying to compare with previous years,each and every year is different..and let's face it turn the clock back 40 or 50 years and cold pools were more extreme and extensive...and for sure general weather patterns were also different. There is know need to get down over what the models are currently showing, tomorrow is another day and things may improve. If not life goes on and that surely is a good thing considering present times.

I'm not going to beat around the Bush here,current model output is poor...but so what,let's see what the weekend brings. And let's not forget many significant cold snaps are preceeded by milder and mundane conditions. Gem brings a brief plume towards next weekend towards the South with very mild 850s..Im not so sure of that outcome,but perhaps its as likely as real cold. You know me folks I'm a cold ramper but I'm running out of ideas at present.. im just gonna sit back and chill and let it play down with know stress...I absolutely hate mild charts in Winter,and for me they should fail to exist...but just for the hell of it I'm posting that Gem warm up with a little reverse mentality..and hoping we infact have the complete opposite! Fast forward the clocks another 5 or 6 weeks and we may be doomed,until then all options on the table...dont give up yet.

Rember the 2018 Beast....yeh yeh

 

Spring warmth guys...come on please...early spring warmth spells one thing for me..Summer down the pan...if we get at a 2019 Feb spell im retiring for good I wouldn't wish it on my worse enemy.

Edited January 21, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Troubleatmill]

All is not lost, the CFS at +708 hours looks interesting, new trend? ?

[Matt H]

P1 is the winner this afternoon, what a beauty! Albeit very isolated though.

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think its foolish to be trying to compare with previous years,each and every year is different..and let's face it turn the clock back 40 or 50 years and cold pools were more extreme and extensive...and for sure general weather patterns were also different. There is know need to get down over what the models are currently showing, tomorrow is another day and things may improve. If not life goes on and that surely is a good thing considering present times.

I'm not going to beat around the Bush here,current model output is poor...but so what,let's see what the weekend brings. And let's not forget many significant cold snaps are preceeded by milder and mundane conditions. Gem brings a brief plume towards next weekend towards the South with very mild 850s..Im not so sure of that outcome,but perhaps its as likely as real cold. You know me folks I'm a cold ramper but I'm running out of ideas at present.. im just gonna sit back and chill and let it play down with know stress...I absolutely hate mild charts in Winter,and for me they should fail to exist...but just for the hell of it I'm posting that Gem warm up with a little reverse mentality..and hoping we infact have the complete opposite! Fast forward the clocks another 5 or 6 weeks and we may be doomed,until then all options on the table...dont give up yet.

Rember the 2018 Beast....yeh yeh

 

Spring warmth guys...come on please...early spring warmth spells one thing for me..Summer down the pan...if we get at a 2019 Feb spell im retiring for good I wouldn't wish it on my worse enemy.

Wait to see if this evening's ecm zonal wind chart supports the GFS's forecast negative dip at the beginning of February. I reckon it will. 

 

[Anthony Burden]

Short possible 4day milder spell beginning to firm up on the charts next week,after that period 

is looking more like a colder outlook.Need to keep a keen eye on ensembles for extended period,

but before we look that far a head some snow is possible for the south Sunday morning,nothing

to think anything but a continuation of winter with a short mild spell.

 

[Tamara]

4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Am i the only one who doesnt rate the MJO influence? Is there any corrobrative evidence that the MJO is much of a player? What state was the MJO in when we have had previous Big Freezes?

Seems to me people are grasping at straws for some kind of confirmation of a favoured weather type is likely.

Currently, imho, there is no sign of any developing Easterly, not in the ops nor my favoured NOAA anomaly charts ................................. but then again there wasnt in January 24th 1985 whos synoptic pattern was very close to whats expected by Tuesday next week. And we all know how February 1985 turned out!

There is no doubt that the intra seasonal influence of the MJO has a large scale effect on global weather patterns - but at ALL times of the year and not just in the rabid anticipation and frenzied expectations that so many have for winter.       The diagnostic Global Synoptic Dynamical Model (GSDM) has a framework that encompasses wind-flow inertia changes c/o tropical convection (MJO) and also within extra tropics and presented in a phase plot depiction known as the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO)

If one puts aside all the fancy titles and acronyms, what you have with this diagnostic model, is a measure of total aggregate wind-flow inertia within the total atmospheric circulation to give an highly accurate depiction of the jet stream around the globe, and how this may subsequently evolve and change,  i.e whether it is accelerating (forward momentum) or decelerating (falling momentum) in any given place. In turn it is possible to get an idea of where amplification may occur in any given place (and which creates cold and corresponding warm air advection in different parts of the hemisphere),. It therefore also identifies where faster flow might flatten the pattern and subsequently transfer amplification wavelengths away downstream and in doing so alter where cold and warm air advection re-sets itself .

With that (simplified) overview in mind, the rossby wave changes that occur in the tropics c/o intra-seasonal MJO activity are the catalyst for weather pattern changes in the extra tropics, and indeed potentially at all layers of the atmosphere from the troposphere to the stratosphere. It is just the case that the winter has the added variable of the stratospheric vortex  to consider which makes identifying pattern changes more complex, relatively speaking, than in the summer when rossby wave activity dictates the troposphere much more (though not always exclusively)

The essence of all that analysis and overview is that where your post is correct, is to suggest that the MJO (and any other meteorological driver for that matter) is not some putative golden bullet to delivering to weather preferences, though on this thread in winter one might be forgiven for believing that these intra-seasonal drivers suddenly comes into being as hailed snowmakers (or villains of the peace if they 'don't appear to work'!)  before apparently disappearing into obscurity in tandem with the seasonal audience in March or April

Each season, each set of variables have to be taken on their own merits - and while it might be exciting and entertaining to make believe that MJO Phase x = object y blizzard - a cursory look at the past three winter seasons has seen some different outcomes based around MJO activity involving eastward propagation of tropical activity.  There is neither the time, the place or the space to go into each of them in detail and explain the differences. This has been done exhaustively in many places already, many times.

It would be just as easy to point to the role that tropical and extra tropical wind-flow circulations have played in the different outcomes of those same three summers in those respective years and so on and so forth. Alas, there is nowhere near the same interest between about March and October. It doesn't diminish the true fascination and complexity of the science that underpins it however. And it is very complex with still so much more to learn. But that is, or should be, the purpose and the reward.

In respect of the ongoing outlook : A previous post of mine recently mentioned an array of possibilities, that included the heavily biased solution of the majority in this thread, but it is included through how feasible , on this particular occasion, it is as ONE of the probabilistic outcome - but without intention or any wish whatsoever to pander to bias preferences.  It is wholly counter intuitive (and indeed self defeating) to inextricably try to link or fit MJO phenomenon (and all other variables) to ANY given weather type without  proper diagnostic assessment of ALL probabilities.. Posts such as the one under reply offer the opportunity to provide some realism instead of fantasy -  however it is accepted that is not the primary motivation in any way of this thread

Edited January 21, 2021 by Tamara

[Daniel*]

Perhaps this is a big factor in boost of mobility late month, strengthening of zonal wind still below average but a fair rise to now, but it quickly weakens and perhaps even reverses again into early February. Don’t think this uptick was expected but looks a hiccup. With MJO assistance into February looks quite promising this month will offer our best chance of a proper nationwide cold spell. 

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Don’t think this uptick was expected but looks a hiccup.

 

It seems to be these unexpected 'hiccups' always seem to crop up to ruin things these days!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational..bring on the spring warmth I say!...not a very subtle use of reverse psychology from a coldie I admit..it might work though?!

Edited January 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

It seems to be these unexpected 'hiccups' always seem to crop up to ruin things these days!

It’s issue with models they tend to smooth things out, they miss out on the cracks, not until it’s much closer the cracks are noticeable. It’s clear to me there’s always some underlying uncertainty.

[MAF]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational..bring on the spring warmth I say!...not a very subtle use of reverse psychology from a coldie I admit..it might work though?!

doubt it  

joking aside, all i can see in the near future is average temps here in the SE and the mild is continually overbearing the cold. so those shots you have posted are probably about where it is going currently. 

[sebastiaan1973]

53 minutes ago, Vikos said:

So, if things are just so clear and no more winter to come, why not just hit the logout button and sign off instead of moaning around in the Models thread? 
yes gfs is not showing anything good but the models are just low in performance and FI is still very close. 
 

jezz, everywhere the same, be it English or German forums... shows we are all the same

Include the Netherlands. Where the so called realist are instead pessimist

[Tim Bland]

ECM keeping the dream alive for a bit of snow for much of England & Wales on Sunday 

[Frostbite1980]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM keeping the dream alive for a bit of snow for much of England & Wales on Sunday 

Hopefully we will get agreement on this with other models by tonight/tomorrow

[Mike Poole]

ECM T72 with the shortwave in southern UK, which may bring some snowfall, though it seems shallower than yesterday’s models, but for those who have yet to see a single flake this winter, might bring something:

Tomorrow we should have the short rangers on to it so may be able to firm up predictions for snowfall then.

[Methuselah]

56 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

P1 is the winner this afternoon, what a beauty! Albeit very isolated though.

But will it materialise?

[Tim Bland]

ECM has be steadfast re the front Sun but other models keep changing their minds. You would expect by tomorrow eve to have agreement surely. Aperge has nothing Sunday (day) but a week front Sunday night 

[Snipper]

Apart from a few is this a seek the cold thread or a carefully considered model discussion?

[Tim Bland]

Front Tuesday goes a bit further south and goes more east / south east. There’s scope for quite a few to see snow from this before the inevitable warm up midweek

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM has be steadfast re the front Sun but other models keep changing their minds. You would expect by tomorrow eve to have agreement surely. Aperge has nothing Sunday (day) but a week front Sunday night 

Any snow tuesday??!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Front Tuesday goes a bit further south and goes more east / south east. There’s scope for quite a few to see snow from this before the inevitable warm up midweek

Great timing i just asked you about tuesday at the same time as your post!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lets look on the bright side of life..der der,der der der der der der..

The vortex is splattered and really is a sorry state..its leaking like I do at night with prostate issues.

[Battleground Snow]

Huge scatter in the ensembles. A mean towards -5 at end of the run is a decent signal for at least below average temperatures, in the first week of February that will not feel at all mild.

 

[Vikos]

EC --->

Not even worth posting any ridicules charts

Edited January 21, 2021 by Vikos

[Stu_London]

1 hour ago, Frosty Winter said:

P1 is the winner this afternoon, what a beauty! Albeit very isolated though.

bit marginal for Cork and the Isles of Scilly, otherwise not too shabby.