Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    As far as the GFS 00z and its ensembles go Member 3 is my favourite as overall it keeps cold going or very close throughout the entirety of the run.

    gfs-scunthorpe-gb-535n-0.thumb.jpeg.60aab9069edada7c0a4db506971ebdf5.jpeg

    The above for Scunthorpe clearly shows the next few days cold spell as well as a trend for another milder interlude later in the month but this still isn't nailed on with all that scatter even then. Member 3 is one of those that doesn't have this milder interlude for Scunthorpe at least anyway and overall it stays close to -5 at 850hpa throughout the run. There is a trend to go colder again later on but this region is also full of scatter, more so than where the milder spell is.

    Member 3 selected charts

    +144 hours

    image.thumb.png.43ae8f6c007e87de6bca1f2a384ad0f2.pngimage.thumb.png.e8eb0d19a8d1e063e5526d8b4f245734.png

    A nice little snow maker here for some northern parts of England, hopefully Scunthorpe gets in on the action here

    +216 hours

    image.thumb.png.4e49c2b5d973db034f173a810ec288a5.pngimage.thumb.png.466a260503e9b2768306c15ea9e39b2d.png

    A real battle taking place here with mild from the west hitting cold high to the east. Maybe a possible snow event here in the east especially

    +384 hours

    image.thumb.png.3358c5ed06cd3663485a0338445feb7b.pngimage.thumb.png.c4bc29e5da80e91a90a1dacb446383b1.png

    After this the cold high just wins and sits close to the UK

    Other good charts

    Member 2 +282 hours and +324 hours

    image.thumb.png.2fe378f69a8bc3ba573c02ac4ed7b920.pngimage.thumb.png.b918341b18dba041e1c1c639db56ede6.png

    image.thumb.png.29fd76f448b201ff4c795076454d0d64.pngimage.thumb.png.6bb4ff263b810deac85cc280d7e9eb37.png

    Member 4 +324 hours

    image.thumb.png.ff00db54aeda5238780707aa4e906228.pngimage.thumb.png.c4dcbb51e963c2492a092cfb3f9be642.png

    Member 24 +354 hours

    image.thumb.png.e5889966496a2105f8fe06266f2f7834.pngimage.thumb.png.0cf8c64786a5ae64fed45151a63e499a.png

    Also a few nightmare charts to show how much it could all go wrong in the potential colder period later on

    Member 12 +378 hours

    image.thumb.png.92c4467525c37baa2fbc0be33d3bad14.pngimage.thumb.png.46e516d9d864e8ada78c7f234f6e4b2a.png

    Member 14 +306 hours

    image.thumb.png.1b496f85fb010a7495a08f809c3b806d.pngimage.thumb.png.224f4f4055813834f5d0f8fafa98b655.png

    Member 23 +360 hours

    image.thumb.png.6efe2bc8e5728fd5b6fd627f122911dc.pngimage.thumb.png.9f04239d9dec605bc3f097028cd135af.png

    Member 29 +282 hours

    image.thumb.png.5399cf13b4f239cc3801dcb6c9f574c7.pngimage.thumb.png.3424635d617b3c4d0201b106cf291779.png

    Basically cold in the near term. Most likely milder to end the month but this isn't guaranteed with a few colder outliers still in there then a trend to colder later on but as has been seen with the few charts just above this there is still the chance of a milder spell even into early February too

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    14 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Does this also apply to the EC MJO? It looks a bit more conservative without so many outliers then GFS

    ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

    Phase 7 is preferred

    • Many ensemble members in the GEFS and ECMWF predict the MJO to emerge over the Western Pacific during the next two weeks. • This forecast should be taken carefully; both of these models have had similar forecasts over the past month, which have not verified.

    From the same source.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    Just now, IDO said:

    • Many ensemble members in the GEFS and ECMWF predict the MJO to emerge over the Western Pacific during the next two weeks. • This forecast should be taken carefully; both of these models have had similar forecasts over the past month, which have not verified.

    From the same source.

    Thank you. Now it's the question which influences there have been for the forecast to be wrong. Was it the SSW? Or even less airplane traffic (C0/NOX/trails) due Covid? Right now we are on the standards of first years of the 80's regarding air traffic all over the world.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    1 minute ago, Vikos said:

    Thank you. Now it's the question which influences there have been for the forecast to be wrong. Was it the SSW? Or even less airplane traffic (C0/NOX/trails) due Covid? Right now we are on the standards of first years of the 80's regarding air traffic all over the world.

    We should know soon as the data over the next two days will qualify the forecast either way. Good question and would be interesting to know the reasons apart from any signal being overriden by the SSWE, or El Nina opposing the normal MJO signals, or as you say data assimilation?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Charts showing a changeable theme from middle of next week with a possible uptick in

     Temperatures,still some uncertainty of how long mild spell could last GEM good example.

    The exact orientation and tracks of the Atlantic lows are still open to change inclusive of

    overall push against colder continental air.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Pretty poor 0z ecm this morning it has to be said...with an increase in Atlantic activity, only 1 run but I thought we were entering another period of interest late Jan/early Feb?, looks the opposite to me.

    CFS still retaining a signal but if the ecm doesn't come on board at the same time juncture, little hope.

    cfs-0-336.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, should these charts for 29/2 verify (I've found that the FV3 can be quite successful with plumelets, at times) my voluntary farm work could well recommence!👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Spanish plume 🤩

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    This run drops 10cm in the south east on Sat..

    DD9F687B-7617-44A6-9B07-075252DBB7C9.gif

    CFEA8ED6-FF07-4312-9FDA-86D7D761E64F.gif

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Very late in the run, but maybe a weak MJO response on the OP.

    It's a shame the para run has got stuck at 102.

     

    gfsnh-0-342 (5).png

    image.thumb.png.e12b82889309a54b34509becd9ebc6ec.png

    Hopefully the start of Feb is the one to watch 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    See post further up.

    There is no MJO movement.  They're false signals caused by Kelvin waves.

    With no MJO and a failed SSW, there is little cheer and we can maybe hope for an early Strat final warming to bring some late Winter promise into early March.

    How can it be a false signal for something that hasn't happened yet, we will only find out if it's incorrect in a few days. The ncep Article said that confidence is low on the forecast, and to remain cautious, they didn't say it wouldn't progress into the west Pacific.

    Also that tweet is referring to the end of January, not into February, with a 10-12 day lag, we wouldn't see the effects until 1st of Feb at the earliest.

    Edited by Battleground Snow
    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    57 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    This run drops 10cm in the south east on Sat..

    DD9F687B-7617-44A6-9B07-075252DBB7C9.gif

    CFEA8ED6-FF07-4312-9FDA-86D7D761E64F.gif

    Sunday looks ok too with the potential of some snow especially across the southern half of Wales and England.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about?

     

    Apologies, I meant failed as in providing a sustained (+7 days) proper cold spell to most of the islands of Britain and Ireland.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
    41 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    See post further up.

    There is no MJO movement.  They're false signals caused by Kelvin waves.

    With no MJO and a failed SSW, there is little cheer and we can maybe hope for an early Strat final warming to bring some late Winter promise into early March.

    are the next 5-6 weeks all set in stone then, and is there no possibility of some interesting weather in February?

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    Just now, mountain shadow said:

    Apologies, I meant failed as in providing a sustained (+7 days) proper cold spell to most of the islands of Britain and Ireland.

    I might be wrong but wasn't the cold spell in March of 2013 caused by the SSW in January 2 months before? We have a lot of winter left to get something good out of it 🙂

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    37 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    How can it be a false signal for something that hasn't happened yet, we will only find out if it's incorrect in a few days. The ncep Article said that confidence is low on the forecast, and to remain cautious, they didn't say it wouldn't progress into the west Pacific.

    Also that tweet is referring to the end of January, not into February, with a 10-12 day lag, we wouldn't see the effects until 1st of Feb at the earliest.

    The issue is that the La Nina base state is Pacific West based, and that the MJO signal will come out of COD into that region is maybe just the algorithms reading the Kelvin Wave as an MJO wave? This has happened recently as well as in the last two years. This could be a coincidence, both enso and MJO spiking at the same place at the same time, but realistically qualifying on the data we have, it is not worth relying on the MJO to reboot the poor NH profile until we know for sure? The models will know shortly and will correct the MJO forecast if need be.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    15 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about?

    With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread.

    - There actually was a SSW, that is actually still ongoing. So that part did not fail.
    - Seeing the difficulty the models are having (the verification stats posted earlier this morning show how all models drop), it is very likely we are already seeing the effects in the output, and in reality. So that part probably did not fail either.
    - The influence of the SSW comes in waves and covers a period from as little as 9 days to as much as 60 days (or perhaps even more). So we are just getting started with this SSW. You seem to dismiss any February opportunities, which is truly odd on January 21st. In other words, it's way too early to call it a fail.
    - Finally, that the SSW so far did not result in a load of snow on your doorstep (nor on mine), does not mean it 'failed'.

    For your own sanity, drop the IMBY outlook, look at the hemispheric picture, don't put too much trust in FI output (+144h and later) and reserve judgement on the SSW and its effect at least until mid March.

    Enjoy whatever weather you have now, and just be curious about what might happen in a few weeks time 🙂

    The SSW happened, and it has not 'failed'; it is what it is . . . but Hypers Anonymous clearly have failed -- but then they usually do!🤔

    Edited by General Cluster
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Apologies, I meant failed as in providing a sustained (+7 days) proper cold spell to most of the islands of Britain and Ireland.

    No need for apologies, I am not mad at you 😉

    It's just what I said, there are no promises for our backyards, but for all we know right now, there might be a legendary February around the corner. With a very sustained cold spell for you and me. Or the mildest one ever!
    That's the reality. It's way too early to call this.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    The latest 10 dayer video from the Met acknowledge the SSW has happened and explained that the colder than average weather we are currently experiencing is because the SSW has pushed the jet stream to the South .

     

     

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    Just now, General Cluster said:

    The SSW happened, and it has not 'failed'; it it what it is . . . but Hypers Anonymous clearly have failed -- but then they usually do!🤔

    Summed up my thoughts, so deleted my musings, and will just add, reality<expectations!

    The mean in fi for the 06z back in line with my personal expectations for post-d10:

    gensnh-31-1-324.thumb.png.69530b432f581941c89feb2226990fc3.pnggensnh-31-0-324.thumb.png.2b3cf92e2417ca4b325bf3857eaf517a.png

    Flow from the NW>SE with a colder than average setup. Azores High, vortex to NW, Arctic High Asian side, and the axis of cold remaining Asia to Canada but the movement of the coldest pool towards the conus.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    No need for apologies, I am not mad at you 😉

    It's just what I said, there are no promises for our backyards, but for all we know right now, there might be a legendary February around the corner. With a very sustained cold spell for you and me. Or the mildest one ever!
    That's the reality. It's way too early to call this.

    The impacts of ongoing strat (to trop) events can linger into spring, so it seems we may have to contend with unsupported supposition (both for and against colder chances) for some considerable time to come.

    Why don't we all use charts to demonstrate future modelling and and data to support recorded occurrences? Disappointment and complaints belong in the moan thread. The mods don't need the hassle. 👍

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...