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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
2 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Ha, realistic would be nice

Ok, there you go

2cf4y4xz.jpg

 

The main center of the polar vortex lies over Siberia with a strong cold trough over Scandinavia to M/W-Europe, a smaller part of the vortex lies over central Canada with a high pressure bridge from northern Canada to the North Pacific (polar vortex split). Between the high pressure bridge and the main vortex over Eurasia, arctic air masses can flow from eastern Siberia over the Arctic directly to Europe. This is around 25.1.

For the outcome of that SSWE, we are in a good timeline according this graph

wcd-1-373-2020-avatar-web.png

See the stratosphere Thread, where @sebastiaan1973 postet a paper about the downwelling events of SSWE

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

My eyes are on the ECM with everything crossed that it follows the GEM

I meant to add, as I posted earlier, my belief is that the ECM on current form might be late to the party, but never say never...

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

UKMO showing the low over the southern half of U.K. at 72 hrs while Fax showing it to the south east 

very finely balanced for a chance of the white stuff in the south.

Think ecm wont follow the ukmo at 72 hours and will be further south!!lets see!!hope im wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
8 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

UKMO showing the low over the southern half of U.K. at 72 hrs while Fax showing it to the south east 

very finely balanced for a chance of the white stuff in the south.

It hasn't updated yet 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

The channel low runner is a shortwave west of Ireland at T+48 on the ECM

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

ECM still has the low south of the UK. Some snow for the far south perhaps. Will see shortly when precip charts are out 

0D4B2FCA-4ED5-4C92-B81E-A9905E33E097.gif

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

From this 

65AEBB66-87B6-4356-B547-341DBAFC5A6E.thumb.jpeg.6782d609af0bbd5a67fc42c0e2e26ea7.jpeg

to this

A12CA9F7-0026-4041-95CC-DB93A52F3860.thumb.jpeg.2eae5b7f8b4f7495176b1cc420a959f9.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

What did i say earlier mike

Haha you posted 6 mins ago when Friday’s chart was out. It was easy to see where it was going..can’t call you Nostradamus just yet a bit of rain fir Kent and that it in afraid. Lots to be resolved ! 

2EF6F7D6-103F-4ACD-BA9E-CB4AF97403E6.jpeg

EF467F93-89B2-401B-99E1-A74BCA4DED99.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
1 hour ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.54233196754e337bc51403eb753e3343.png

Widespread snow south of the M4 

One can dream 

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Haha you posted 6 mins ago when Friday’s chart was out. It was easy to see where it was going..can’t call you Nostradamus just yet a bit of rain fir Kent and that it in afraid. Lots to be resolved ! 

2EF6F7D6-103F-4ACD-BA9E-CB4AF97403E6.jpeg

EF467F93-89B2-401B-99E1-A74BCA4DED99.jpeg

At least it will be cloudy preventing a decent frost

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

For balance, JMA makes very little of the feature:

54EEAE28-5DAB-4F4F-8827-8B1FBFACF2DD.thumb.gif.a8bbbba260c6102e9be73a368cd1175f.gif

So, UKMO, GFS // go for it, GEM, GFS and JMA not really interested, and ECM somewhere in the middle.  And at just T72, hmmmm...

Add ARPEGE to the yes list!

70038C5E-484D-4C89-8E6A-9BD73036466F.thumb.png.2f50c4d639833a0e3bac342aa43e458a.png

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Expect UKMO to back down tomorrow, on it's own with deeper northerly feature, Saturday my guess S of m4 event EC got this I think

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2021012012/ECM1-72.GIF?20-0

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
20 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Ok, there you go

2cf4y4xz.jpg

 

The main center of the polar vortex lies over Siberia with a strong cold trough over Scandinavia to M/W-Europe, a smaller part of the vortex lies over central Canada with a high pressure bridge from northern Canada to the North Pacific (polar vortex split). Between the high pressure bridge and the main vortex over Eurasia, arctic air masses can flow from eastern Siberia over the Arctic directly to Europe. This is around 25.1.

For the outcome of that SSWE, we are in a good timeline according this graph

wcd-1-373-2020-avatar-web.png

See the stratosphere Thread, where @sebastiaan1973 postet a paper about the downwelling events of SSWE

Google 1928 1929 winter very similar set up.First part of winter the same as now .Second part very cold and wintry.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

image.thumb.png.a2900cc6552e0fe5bde8164bf77c4e5a.png
 

image.thumb.png.89b61e106d7d058d8abed1dfa1665ea4.png

 

Plenty of interest for the weekend with two shallow systems predicted to cross the south half of the U.K. (Track and depth to still be determined). The shallow the system will mean less mixing out of the cold air, however a shallower system will track further south. So swings and roundabouts, but the ECM would probably offer some snow on both days this coming weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Here’s a chart no one can be called IMBY for posting...and a rare site at day 5...Almost every part of the Uk with snow cover ...

EEBCEC66-0BD3-468B-BA21-FA03CFC1384F.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
4 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Google 1928 1929 winter very similar set up.First part of winter the same as now .Second part very cold and wintry.

Do you mean this article?

winter-weather-pattern%C2%B8forecast-jan
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

United States and Europe will see a similar Winter weather pattern as in January 1929, which was one of the coldest winters of 20th century

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s a chart no one can be called IMBY for posting...and a rare site at day 5...Almost every part of the Uk with snow cover ...

EEBCEC66-0BD3-468B-BA21-FA03CFC1384F.jpeg

Not sure how any snow could have fallen over Manchester by that stage when the purple missed.

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Do you mean this article?

winter-weather-pattern%C2%B8forecast-jan
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

United States and Europe will see a similar Winter weather pattern as in January 1929, which was one of the coldest winters of 20th century

 

Unfortunately with that sight it seems like its an organisation with Nathan Rao as the editor and James Madden as the senior forecaster.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately with that sight it seems like its an organisation with Nathan Rao as the editor and James Madden as the senior forecaster.

I don't know, the article I shared is from Recretos/ Andrej Flis . In the past he was a regular guest at the stratosphere topic.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

No following of the GEM unfortunately. ECM makes little work of pushing the Atlantic air through midweek...

26E18164-646B-4F01-9337-44C2B62FA261.jpeg

D0245869-1556-4FB5-93E3-9C3C8091686F.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
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