Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Indeed, the para is trying to make a miraculous recovery here too and doesn't look too dissimilar to the OP. Early Feb again ..

Let's hope the start of Feb is the trend to keep an eye on 

[Tim Bland]

GFSp goes with a. Ridge up to Greenland to end ..

[Battleground Snow]

Wow split vortex at almost the perfect angle for us

[Nick F]

Re: 12z GEM, looks like combo of an arctic high extending south and amplification of Atlantic flow N over UK which triggers interesting heights/pressure rise over GIN corridor. Also note the cold pool/vortex moving W/SW over N Russia then over NE Europe

certainly slowing the Atlantic in its tracks.

Edited January 20, 2021 by Nick F

[ALL ABOARD]

You don't just go from this 

 

To this 

Unless its picking up on a major downwelling wave or the combination of the weak strat and the MJO on the move? 

[MattStoke]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hmmm, what's this, need to see it on EC though to stand any chance

Looks a lot more developed than on the other models.

[Matt H]

Another very good parallel run in the extended range, and it ties in well to the signal on the CFS/extended GFS control runs for northern blocking to return during February. Will be very interesting to see whether this consistency comes to anything or not.

[chris55]

Coming back to the mid term, the Atlantic is really struggling to make inroads early next week. The main Atlantic trough isn't able to push through as was modelled a few days ago, instead we see energy splitting off and staying further south than previously modelled. Will be interesting to see how this develops going forward. However with the jet squeezed south, the zonal flow is pushed south, and that could well mean some exceptionally wet weather for the southern half of the UK! Lets hope these lows disrupt and leave some of that moisture in the Atlantic!

 

 

 

[winterof79]

Anyone hazard a guess where that small disturance  to our NW will dive

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Re: 12z GEM, looks like combo of an arctic high extending south and amplification of Atlantic flow N over UK which triggers interesting heights/pressure rise over GIN corridor. Also note the cold pool/vortex moving W/SW over N Russia then over NE Europe

certainly slowing the Atlantic in its tracks.

Sure Carinthian mentioned the pros over there were looking at the Arctic high pushing the trough South

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

You don't just go from this 

 

To this 

Unless its picking up on a major downwelling wave or the combination of the weak strat and the MJO on the move? 

Really? We've seen individual charts like that since the start of Winter that have failed to materialise. 

I'll wait until it's inside day 7 before getting excited.

[Ladyofthestorm]

GFS going for another warming over Siberia. 7 days later the vortex splits with causing cold air to spill on from the North.   

 

Away out in lala land, however the caveat this winter is that it appears to Tue in with the tekeconnections . 

[Singularity]

 

Welcome to 'WedgeGate' late Jan 2021 edition!

I've been studying how the GEM 12z compares to the ECM 00z, seeking the key difference(s) that enable GEM to build a wedge to our north 28th-30th.

Key moment is around +156 hours when both models have a shallow low peeling away from the Atlantic trough. Note that GEM (right) has a large consolidated low to the west at this point, while ECM (left) has two lows along a very positively (SW-NE) tilted polar jet.

The GEM version of events pushes up more of a ridge between the main trough and peel-away low. Things then escalate from there.

Of the other 12z runs so far, UKMO's the closest at +144. After that it's ICON, though by this point there's not much difference to the GFS & GFS(P) runs.

Large consolidated lows are not the easiest of features to come by but it's nice to know that the route is there.

[Tim Bland]

GEM is a for snow lovers. It tries 3 x to push the Atlantic through next week and fails every time with rain turning to snow and fizzling out. Net result = 10cm+ in central areas ...

[Mucka]

Disappointing to see GFSp drop the height rises and block building to our N/NE with undercut and no improvement on 12z Op but at least the ensembles have shown another small step toward it being a possibility, albeit still very much the outside bet and a bit of a straw clutch unless and until the Euros come on board and we see it back in GFSp and improvement in GFS operational runs.

Are the models overplaying the Westerly theme against the backdrop of the strat warming?

Just a little less energy would cause Atlantic lows to develop less and thus take a slightly more Southerly track which in turn would aid disruption, height rises to our N and ultimately undercut of any developing block so it is probably more plausible than the output is reflecting if not the favoured outcome as yet.

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Really? We've seen individual charts like that since the start of Winter that have failed to materialise. 

I'll wait until it's inside day 7 before getting excited.

Missing my point completely... 

I'm not in anyway saying its going to happen.. 

I'm merely pointing out that on that specific run you don't go from the initial pattern to the secondary pattern in 50 hours unless it's detecting a major pattern change. 

[Griff]

37 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem has decent heights near Iceland at 228 and the GFS op looks interesting at 300, however looks like the para has lost the Scandi high signal

It will be back... Oh wait it already did

GEM is vast improvement. 

Eyes to the pub... 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

It will be back... Oh wait it already did

GEM is vast improvement. 

Eyes to the pub... 

My eyes are on the ECM with everything crossed that it follows the GEM

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is a for snow lovers. It tries 3 x to push the Atlantic through next week and fails every time with rain turning to snow and fizzling out. Net result = 10cm+ in central areas ...

like Feb '94, shame only the GEM

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

My eyes are on the ECM with everything crossed that it follows the GEM

To be totally honest, lost track of what day it was earlier, let alone what the time is

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

To be totally honest, lost track of what day it was earlier, let alone what the time is

Know the feeling...it’s like Groundhog Day at the moment. ...I’m confident that we will get a beast from the east in time for Christmas though...day 10 looks promising

In all serious though we don’t need much of a tweak to make next week snowy, GEM shows this perfectly,  so if ECM shows something similar it could be an exciting afternoon.  I’d much rather see short term upgrades than chase FI rainbows that never materialise ! 

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Hi, anyone any news on whether the SSW will couple with the trop this time?  As presumably, if it were to have an affect, we would be seeing this in the models by now?   Or was there simply not enough oomph from the warming to disrupt the strat enough in the first place?   Thanks..

[Mike Poole]

GEM is a decent run. But it is a wedge not a block - not that these can’t happen, 2013 about this time of the month an obvious example.  SSW same time, not ideal straight away, then the late January snow, and then of course, March.  

ECM coming soon, so two things to look for, it follows the UKMO Saturday (T72), and how close to the GEM evolution late doors...

Edited January 20, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Hi, anyone any news on whether the SSW will couple with the trop this time?  As presumably, if it were to have an affect, we would be seeing this in the models by now?   Or was there simply not enough oomph from the warming to disrupt the strat enough in the first place?   Thanks..

Do you want a rather pessemistic or a rather optimistic outlook?

[Mr_Pessimistic]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Do you want a rather pessemistic or a rather optimistic outlook?

Ha, realistic would be nice