Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

This is just ridiculous, the difference between UKMO and GFS at T72:

99101689-4A02-4850-89F3-A32D57A56689.thumb.png.05704efab080bddffb769930256c17b8.png199E7EB8-A50F-4B11-8AB2-289E73311977.thumb.gif.adfcaa4421707f0565fff68425538313.gif

At that range and in this location my money is lumped on the UKMO!

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
3 minutes ago, SnowSalah said:

I’ve noticed a few different times that there seems to be a Great Wall that stops the precipitation from carrying over Ireland and stops at coasts, is this an error within the models or due to some weather phenomena I’m not familiar with? Thanks in advance

Haha, I'm not sure why that happens, maybe it's because the system deepens as it moves further east... It looks very weak when over Ireland

Screenshot_20210120-160339.png

Screenshot_20210120-160346.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This is just ridiculous, the difference between UKMO and GFS at T72:

99101689-4A02-4850-89F3-A32D57A56689.thumb.png.05704efab080bddffb769930256c17b8.png199E7EB8-A50F-4B11-8AB2-289E73311977.thumb.gif.adfcaa4421707f0565fff68425538313.gif

At that range and in this location my money is lumped on the UKMO!

Can you please explain in more details please

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Hatewarmth said:

Can you please explain in more details please

Sure, maybe best to switch to euro view as it relates to the UK specifically.  

Here’s the UKMO, GFS and GFS // at T72, when you would expect little difference between the models:

FEDB5C4A-DAF3-499B-ABFD-EF3F2DE939C3.thumb.gif.465348b7bcf4c0eb02b1a3d96d26a0a3.gifD1AB9D32-FC3B-46FA-B422-C8D13CDDFAE3.thumb.png.5ea65de3cdc7ffd484a8f060b4f51255.png193A726B-005B-4F95-A99E-B66FD2206FC4.thumb.png.9216b19657ed8187fa236c209a106827.png

The UKMO and and the // make much much more of the secondary low to the south of the main one - the one that might bring snow to the south, than the GFS which just doesn’t really want to know.  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
9 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Can you please explain in more details please

UKMO develops a feature which runs eastward on Saturday.

GFS develops this for Sunday either way were getting snow

image.thumb.png.42c4505086aad790655094c70d8ec796.png

Edited by winterof79
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Mmm someone's getting pasted

image.thumb.png.7b9752684994634a8376867646f0a43d.png

Blimey! UKMO has been pretty consistent with this Low, right down from 120, though that 72 charts is the most notable. Hasn't been fully supported though.

Lets hope UKMO has this one!! The nature of the low developing spins in some less cold air, so that's another thing to consider.

spacer.png spacer.png

GFS for the same time.

spacer.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Sure, maybe best to switch to euro view as it relates to the UK specifically.  

Here’s the UKMO, GFS and GFS // at T72, when you would expect little difference between the models:

FEDB5C4A-DAF3-499B-ABFD-EF3F2DE939C3.thumb.gif.465348b7bcf4c0eb02b1a3d96d26a0a3.gifD1AB9D32-FC3B-46FA-B422-C8D13CDDFAE3.thumb.png.5ea65de3cdc7ffd484a8f060b4f51255.png193A726B-005B-4F95-A99E-B66FD2206FC4.thumb.png.9216b19657ed8187fa236c209a106827.png

The UKMO and and the // make much much more of the secondary low to the south of the main one - the one that might bring snow to the south, than the GFS which just doesn’t really want to know.  

Which one has the better resolution at 72 hours?!!ukmo or gfs?!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Mmm someone's getting pasted

image.thumb.png.7b9752684994634a8376867646f0a43d.png

I'd go with the fax charts really , they would be more reliable IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Which one has the better resolution at 72 hours?!!ukmo or gfs?!

Quick google search UKMO 10km, GFS 13km.  But it is also down to the accuracy of the model in our area, UKMO was designed to model our area well, the GFS for the states, so I think we should be confident this feature on Saturday will exist.

Edit GEM now out to T72 and it is less certain with the feature:

B5692BFF-8EBF-4C2D-822B-E42BF150E2DE.thumb.png.d8b2d87cf2de8d0435d017b14a9a21de.png

This feature emerging late should be watched carefully over the next couple of runs, as it could cause an unexpected (hitherto) dumping for some in the south.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

I'd go with the fax charts really , they would be more reliable IMO

Yes I agree, it'll be interesting to see how the pros down in Exeter read it. I have a feeling it will be further north than the previous 84h FAX but not as developed as the UKMO 12z. That would be a good position to be in for many in the south inland and away from the far south.

Previous 84h FAX for comparison later.

spacer.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Sure, maybe best to switch to euro view as it relates to the UK specifically.  

Here’s the UKMO, GFS and GFS // at T72, when you would expect little difference between the models:

FEDB5C4A-DAF3-499B-ABFD-EF3F2DE939C3.thumb.gif.465348b7bcf4c0eb02b1a3d96d26a0a3.gifD1AB9D32-FC3B-46FA-B422-C8D13CDDFAE3.thumb.png.5ea65de3cdc7ffd484a8f060b4f51255.png193A726B-005B-4F95-A99E-B66FD2206FC4.thumb.png.9216b19657ed8187fa236c209a106827.png

The UKMO and and the // make much much more of the secondary low to the south of the main one - the one that might bring snow to the south, than the GFS which just doesn’t really want to know.  

Also different with the low coming off the US's eastern sea board.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This is just ridiculous, the difference between UKMO and GFS at T72:

99101689-4A02-4850-89F3-A32D57A56689.thumb.png.05704efab080bddffb769930256c17b8.png199E7EB8-A50F-4B11-8AB2-289E73311977.thumb.gif.adfcaa4421707f0565fff68425538313.gif

At that range and in this location my money is lumped on the UKMO!

The overall synoptic pattern is very close.  
 

BFTP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

03z ukv has the system clipping the south coast. Doesn’t get as far as north of the Thames.

E5A1056C-1D4B-441C-B3B8-A12FB70000B9.thumb.png.1809a45b23efca5b1ac8e0e41a6082c3.png

2449FACE-08A1-466D-9AF5-D47F3A89F456.thumb.png.7cd51da22ac68cf542932c6788d0cf26.png

Be interesting to see next extended run 1500z

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Quick google search UKMO 10km, GFS 13km.  But it is also down to the accuracy of the model in our area, UKMO was designed to model our area well, the GFS for the states, so I think we should be confident this feature on Saturday will exist.

I guess an 11.5km model will have it right then!!somewhere down the middle!!not as developed as ukmo but not as non existant as the gfs and running somwhere across the home counties!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Is there anywhere to see precip charts for the UKMO
 

edit - Found it, not updated yet 

complete_model_modgbr_2021012000_18_4855
WEATHER.US

UKMO (6 days) - Current forecast valid for 01/20/2021, 12:00pm of parameter "Precipitation, 3h", model chart for map "England"

 

Edited by Tim Bland
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is there anywhere to see precip charts for the UKMO

Weatheronline does have the ppn charts but they seem delayed by 24 hours. Not sure what time they update?

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

image.thumb.png.43e0878317df7fd50ce6292fa9bf7a95.png

image.thumb.png.8534478a477d93fde4ea03f0e2674a80.png

Met do talk about a Northerly - Feb starts chilly 

Edited by MJB
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...