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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Icon looking interesting at the end,a scandi high on the way..

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    This is just ridiculous, the difference between UKMO and GFS at T72:

    99101689-4A02-4850-89F3-A32D57A56689.thumb.png.05704efab080bddffb769930256c17b8.png199E7EB8-A50F-4B11-8AB2-289E73311977.thumb.gif.adfcaa4421707f0565fff68425538313.gif

    At that range and in this location my money is lumped on the UKMO!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    3 minutes ago, SnowSalah said:

    I’ve noticed a few different times that there seems to be a Great Wall that stops the precipitation from carrying over Ireland and stops at coasts, is this an error within the models or due to some weather phenomena I’m not familiar with? Thanks in advance 😁😁

    Haha, I'm not sure why that happens, maybe it's because the system deepens as it moves further east... It looks very weak when over Ireland

    Screenshot_20210120-160339.png

    Screenshot_20210120-160346.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Location: Barnsley
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    This is just ridiculous, the difference between UKMO and GFS at T72:

    99101689-4A02-4850-89F3-A32D57A56689.thumb.png.05704efab080bddffb769930256c17b8.png199E7EB8-A50F-4B11-8AB2-289E73311977.thumb.gif.adfcaa4421707f0565fff68425538313.gif

    At that range and in this location my money is lumped on the UKMO!

    Can you please explain in more details please 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Dogs dinner springs to mind, hopefully the Iberian heights can ridge over us and bring us some much needed dry weather

    168E4ACD-F175-424E-A840-E4D2E7996646.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Hatewarmth said:

    Can you please explain in more details please 🙂

    Sure, maybe best to switch to euro view as it relates to the UK specifically.  

    Here’s the UKMO, GFS and GFS // at T72, when you would expect little difference between the models:

    FEDB5C4A-DAF3-499B-ABFD-EF3F2DE939C3.thumb.gif.465348b7bcf4c0eb02b1a3d96d26a0a3.gifD1AB9D32-FC3B-46FA-B422-C8D13CDDFAE3.thumb.png.5ea65de3cdc7ffd484a8f060b4f51255.png193A726B-005B-4F95-A99E-B66FD2206FC4.thumb.png.9216b19657ed8187fa236c209a106827.png

    The UKMO and and the // make much much more of the secondary low to the south of the main one - the one that might bring snow to the south, than the GFS which just doesn’t really want to know.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    9 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

    Can you please explain in more details please 🙂

    UKMO develops a feature which runs eastward on Saturday.

    GFS develops this for Sunday either way were getting snow

    image.thumb.png.42c4505086aad790655094c70d8ec796.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Mmm someone's getting pasted

    image.thumb.png.7b9752684994634a8376867646f0a43d.png

    Blimey! UKMO has been pretty consistent with this Low, right down from 120, though that 72 charts is the most notable. Hasn't been fully supported though.

    Lets hope UKMO has this one!! The nature of the low developing spins in some less cold air, so that's another thing to consider.

    spacer.png spacer.png

    GFS for the same time.

    spacer.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Sure, maybe best to switch to euro view as it relates to the UK specifically.  

    Here’s the UKMO, GFS and GFS // at T72, when you would expect little difference between the models:

    FEDB5C4A-DAF3-499B-ABFD-EF3F2DE939C3.thumb.gif.465348b7bcf4c0eb02b1a3d96d26a0a3.gifD1AB9D32-FC3B-46FA-B422-C8D13CDDFAE3.thumb.png.5ea65de3cdc7ffd484a8f060b4f51255.png193A726B-005B-4F95-A99E-B66FD2206FC4.thumb.png.9216b19657ed8187fa236c209a106827.png

    The UKMO and and the // make much much more of the secondary low to the south of the main one - the one that might bring snow to the south, than the GFS which just doesn’t really want to know.  

    Which one has the better resolution at 72 hours?!!ukmo or gfs?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Mmm someone's getting pasted

    image.thumb.png.7b9752684994634a8376867646f0a43d.png

    I'd go with the fax charts really , they would be more reliable IMO

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Looking at the NH view,all that blocking over the arctic,surely we must tap into the deep cold before too long.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Which one has the better resolution at 72 hours?!!ukmo or gfs?!

    Quick google search UKMO 10km, GFS 13km.  But it is also down to the accuracy of the model in our area, UKMO was designed to model our area well, the GFS for the states, so I think we should be confident this feature on Saturday will exist.

    Edit GEM now out to T72 and it is less certain with the feature:

    B5692BFF-8EBF-4C2D-822B-E42BF150E2DE.thumb.png.d8b2d87cf2de8d0435d017b14a9a21de.png

    This feature emerging late should be watched carefully over the next couple of runs, as it could cause an unexpected (hitherto) dumping for some in the south.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 minutes ago, MJB said:

    I'd go with the fax charts really , they would be more reliable IMO

    Yes I agree, it'll be interesting to see how the pros down in Exeter read it. I have a feeling it will be further north than the previous 84h FAX but not as developed as the UKMO 12z. That would be a good position to be in for many in the south inland and away from the far south.

    Previous 84h FAX for comparison later.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Sure, maybe best to switch to euro view as it relates to the UK specifically.  

    Here’s the UKMO, GFS and GFS // at T72, when you would expect little difference between the models:

    FEDB5C4A-DAF3-499B-ABFD-EF3F2DE939C3.thumb.gif.465348b7bcf4c0eb02b1a3d96d26a0a3.gifD1AB9D32-FC3B-46FA-B422-C8D13CDDFAE3.thumb.png.5ea65de3cdc7ffd484a8f060b4f51255.png193A726B-005B-4F95-A99E-B66FD2206FC4.thumb.png.9216b19657ed8187fa236c209a106827.png

    The UKMO and and the // make much much more of the secondary low to the south of the main one - the one that might bring snow to the south, than the GFS which just doesn’t really want to know.  

    Also different with the low coming off the US's eastern sea board.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    This is just ridiculous, the difference between UKMO and GFS at T72:

    99101689-4A02-4850-89F3-A32D57A56689.thumb.png.05704efab080bddffb769930256c17b8.png199E7EB8-A50F-4B11-8AB2-289E73311977.thumb.gif.adfcaa4421707f0565fff68425538313.gif

    At that range and in this location my money is lumped on the UKMO!

    The overall synoptic pattern is very close.  
     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    03z ukv has the system clipping the south coast. Doesn’t get as far as north of the Thames.

    E5A1056C-1D4B-441C-B3B8-A12FB70000B9.thumb.png.1809a45b23efca5b1ac8e0e41a6082c3.png

    2449FACE-08A1-466D-9AF5-D47F3A89F456.thumb.png.7cd51da22ac68cf542932c6788d0cf26.png

    Be interesting to see next extended run 1500z

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Quick google search UKMO 10km, GFS 13km.  But it is also down to the accuracy of the model in our area, UKMO was designed to model our area well, the GFS for the states, so I think we should be confident this feature on Saturday will exist.

    I guess an 11.5km model will have it right then!!somewhere down the middle😜!!not as developed as ukmo but not as non existant as the gfs and running somwhere across the home counties!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Is there anywhere to see precip charts for the UKMO 🤔
     

    edit - Found it, not updated yet 

    complete_model_modgbr_2021012000_18_4855
    WEATHER.US

    UKMO (6 days) - Current forecast valid for 01/20/2021, 12:00pm of parameter "Precipitation, 3h", model chart for map "England"

     

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Is there anywhere to see precip charts for the UKMO 🤔

    Weatheronline does have the ppn charts but they seem delayed by 24 hours. Not sure what time they update?

    WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

    Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.43e0878317df7fd50ce6292fa9bf7a95.png

    image.thumb.png.8534478a477d93fde4ea03f0e2674a80.png

    Met do talk about a Northerly - Feb starts chilly 

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    hmmm, what's this, need to see it on EC though to stand any chance

    UW72-21.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.73fca8e3ac293576c041a7b4a0d0b15d.png

    I'm sure most would be happy with this 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.54233196754e337bc51403eb753e3343.png

    Widespread snow south of the M4 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.73fca8e3ac293576c041a7b4a0d0b15d.png

    I'm sure most would be happy with this 

    Indeed, the para is trying to make a miraculous recovery here too and doesn't look too dissimilar to the OP. Early Feb again ..

    gfsnh-0-312 (1).png

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