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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Bermuda High said:

    Well I guess the SSW has had no effect on UK weather, bog standard fare at the surface. Its all been a virtual unreality. Still this time next year Rodney....

    Yep, only flooding (150mm of rain) and some heavy snow over Scotland.....nothing to see here.

    It is blatantly obvious the impact the SSW is having, just look at the N. Hemisphere charts, we are just not having much luck with cold that is all. As Chino said last night, the wheel of fortune is still spinning and hopefully we will get our turn soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 hour ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    Why we disappointed? Look at the bigger picture, we have zero vortex in the usual place it calls home which means there's scope for very very interesting charts to pop up over the next few days, I think by the wkend we'll be looking at the cold spell on its way 

    Fingers crossed mate !

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Fax chart 96 hrs showing possible snow event in the south / southeast due to 

    small low development dragging down cold northerly air stream,definite chance

    of the white stuff needs careful watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Cold, Thunder
  • Location: Telford, 160m asl
    10 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    MJO as it's affects for sure. In phase 5 and 6 we have some kind of blocking to our conditions, with phase 7/8 Northerly blocking with Greenland Heights become more likely, thus leading to - ve/NAO.. So colder for the UK increases.. The problem right now with the expected MJO increase to something more favourable coincides with LA Nina which could possibly be masking it somewhat. Everything is up in the air but I still feel we can get something favourable very soon. 

    Edit.. Guys... All. I'm hearing is Snow possibly in the North and the South this weekend... What about us forgotten folks in the Midlands... Can we have some please 🙏😂

    Yeah, every chart seems to show snow just inching into the north or south of the Midlands, but never anything right into the middle! How unfair 😭

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, GokouD said:

    Yeah, every chart seems to show snow just inching into the north or south of the Midlands, but never anything right into the middle! How unfair 😭

    👍 

    E2C1BFD8-8C8B-4E5A-BC72-7BC9B38FDF80.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, GokouD said:

    Yeah, every chart seems to show snow just inching into the north or south of the Midlands, but never anything right into the middle! How unfair 😭

    ‘One mans feast is another mans famine ‘

    4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Fax chart 96 hrs showing possible snow event in the south / southeast due to 

    small low development dragging down cold northerly air stream,definite chance

    of the white stuff needs careful watching.

    The updated T84 moves that particular feature a little further away from the se .....we still remain on alert re this weekends snow pop ups 

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The ssw was the 5th 

    It’s now two weeks later 

    generally ssw after effects are felt in the toprop two to three weeks later away from any areas which see a quick response. Thereafter downwelling waves come every few weeks for a period. Again, no certainties about how that manifests itself in the trop 

    we saw the reversal head down quickly into the trop and the effects were to sustain the already neg AO.  This has led to a long fetch easterly from the urals to the nw Atlantic ...... 

    so yes, no affect on U.K. weather but many opportunities over the next six weeks or so should show 

    exactly. With zonal winds being so low and close to easterly even at the beginning of February there will be opportunities. Here the best analogy I can think of having roll of dice and normally without SSW we have a few opportunities for pattern to line up  cold for us in Europe, with SSW we have extra 4 or 5 throws to get 6, according to Baldwin/Dunkerton weak vortex events there will have to be more oportunites right until march. Even pathetic final warming of last winter in April produced coldest May here in Slovakia with persistent NE winds and about 15 days of frost. I dont believe we are going full on zonal for the rest of the winter, its only matter of time before another opportunity comes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    16 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    Really interesting output this morning. Clearly the winner is the GFS parallel. The second absolutely stunning run in a row. 
     

    0CC11893-E44D-4EA8-87C5-889F4824EF06.thumb.png.5ed704adb76b5b04d15da7e56197ed94.pngBA762A95-66C1-4858-9B06-D0BF046B7E76.thumb.png.874020ddaa3d2181698a38b039185d6c.png
     

    It’s that relatively innocuous looking ‘nosing down’ of a ridge from the Arctic that I will be looking for to set the path for what could follow. It seems to be part aided and abetted by a powerful far East Siberian vertical ridge that isn’t showing on most others. This is definitely one to watch I’d say.

    Saturday is also starting to get more interesting. These waves are unpredictable as they try to form a closed low pressure system at the best of times. Could pop a surprise or three for some in the snow starved south?

    And, in answer to a comment earlier, quite obviously the SSW, and the weakening in general of the SPV, is having an effect on our weather, and a very big one. Its effects are far from finished, it would be a mistake to give up on winter yet, there’s a long way to go with this one...

    Couldn't agree more S4L.

    Plenty of opportunities yet this winter. I,m always reminded of the legendary Blizzard of Feb 78 when people give up on winter in January. That was a pretty non descript winter overall with near misses etc but come the 8th Feb the cold set in and the rest is history. I,m surprised people haven't learnt from 2018 as well about giving up on winter.

    Glad to hear you've recovered from the dreaded Covid.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Another look at the various outputs Wed 20 Jan

    Ec-gfs and no marked changes on either from 24 hours ago; no ridging w of uk, a generally coldish conour w’ly flow from the base of the main trough they show off the eastern seaboard, not very marked as Noaa shows very well.

    Noaa 6-10 again shows the very large +ve anomaly where the major upper trough usually resides, giving an actual closed ridge and a fairly shallow trough south of Greenland, much as ec-gfs; the flow then shows a bit s of west into uk (unlike ec-gfs, see above),and slight ridging over uk into broad shallow trough well east over Europe. Small height rises showing over Iberia.

    Links to two ECMWF outputs one from26-30 Jan inc and the other ten days from 20-30 Jan

    Indicating the cold spell 20-25 th, as 24 hours ago and the increase in 850 mb temperatures thereafter with a 5 C into SW England at the end, with an Atlantic flow predicted from s of west. Not seen a +5 C for a good many weeks over any of the UK, predicted anyway!

    http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

    http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    31 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    Really interesting output this morning. Clearly the winner is the GFS parallel.

    Wasn't there a post a week ago about how poorly the GFS parallel performs post DAY7?...so I'll shun those charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    very unusual to see SW'ly this cold! Saturday could be snowy for areas near Bristol channel

     

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    4 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Stunning chart at 342 on the para, right in the heart of winter.

    Would make up for the near misses and long wait if this came off

     

    gfsnh-0-342 (2).png

    gfsnh-1-342.png

    hhhmmmm...CFS (1 monthly) still with a signal for 'something' into February  although nothing on the 0z this morning but this was last nights 18z.

     

    cfs-0-360.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    very unusual to see SW'ly this cold! Saturday could be snowy for areas near Bristol channel

     

    h850t850eu.png

    Do hope so, seen nothing white falling from the sky so far this Winter. Strangely this week maybe our best chance, both Saturday and Sunday show something.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Next month!!!😍

    cfsnh-3-2-2021.thumb.png.a7a66c8e7228365ef7951c9e19baf8aa.png


    Is it?....  Looks like the cold remains locked up to the North to me, so a continuation of the cold north/mild south battle which we are expected to see next week.
     

    21 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Another look at the various outputs Wed 20 Jan

    Ec-gfs and no marked changes on either from 24 hours ago; no ridging w of uk, a generally coldish conour w’ly flow from the base of the main trough they show off the eastern seaboard, not very marked as Noaa shows very well.

    Noaa 6-10 again shows the very large +ve anomaly where the major upper trough usually resides, giving an actual closed ridge and a fairly shallow trough south of Greenland, much as ec-gfs; the flow then shows a bit s of west into uk (unlike ec-gfs, see above),and slight ridging over uk into broad shallow trough well east over Europe. Small height rises showing over Iberia.

    Links to two ECMWF outputs one from26-30 Jan inc and the other ten days from 20-30 Jan

    Indicating the cold spell 20-25 th, as 24 hours ago and the increase in 850 mb temperatures thereafter with a 5 C into SW England at the end, with an Atlantic flow predicted from s of west. Not seen a +5 C for a good many weeks over any of the UK, predicted anyway!

    http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

    http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

    As i see it, on the NOAA 8-14 day chart (so into early February) theres no support (yet anyway) for that Scandinavian high the GFSP is suggesting for early February. So either the GFSP has spotted this change before the NOAA charts or they are wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    21 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Wasn't there a post a week ago about how poorly the GFS parallel performs post DAY7?...so I'll shun those charts.

    And yet you post the CFS chart further in FI ?

    As much as the CFS is easy on the eye ,  I have found them so poor .

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Three members on the 00z ens now stopping the Atlantic from making inroads, its a small but interesting change.

    spacer.png

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    10 minutes ago, MJB said:

    And yet you post the CFS chart further in FI ?

    As much as the CFS is easy on the eye ,  I have found them so poor .

    Yes I alluded to that about the CFS yesterday in my post but as it's showing a fairly continuous signal for blocking between 1st week and mid- February I have been showing updates...if it was just a one off I wouldn't bother as I know what the CFS is like but it did pick up on the effects of the 2013 SSW into March and April.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    UKMO still with the system crossing the south Saturday, it has been quite consistent with this. But not supported really. It would be nice if we had a bit more detail!

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

    GFS doesn't develop this system Saturday, but does bring a front through Sunday morning.

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

     

    Certainly looks like there is a risk of some snow in the south at some point this weekend but details uncertain.

     

    EDIT.

    UKMO Fax showing Saturdays system skirting to the south, so the guys at Exeter currently going with a more southern track.

    spacer.png

     

     

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Para maintaining those height rises again at 222. Can it stop the Atlantic from blasting through later in the run and build into scandi again?

     

     

    gfsnh-0-222 (7).png

    Small acorns / big trees etc... 👍

    Just for fun, gem has cold pooling to the east that was absent mid run, and even ecm at 240 shows some amplification rather than a flat Atlantic... 🤔 

    gemnh-1-240.png

    ECH1-240.gif

    ECH0-240.gif

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