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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

    Think the GFS OP is having an exerstential crisis. Scandi High or Greenland High which do I prefer? 

    gfs-0-360.png

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS ensembles perhaps just beginning to sniff out the sliders a little better although the snow hound P10 is unfortunately an outlier with its day 7 Winter charge.

     

    gensnh-10-1-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Stunning chart at 342 on the para, right in the heart of winter.

    Would make up for the near misses and long wait if this came off

     

    gfsnh-0-342 (2).png

    gfsnh-1-342.png

    Great chart would be even better if the high was slightly Futher north and tilted NW-SE instead to allow the Arctic air out over Siberia to sink into Scandinavia and over to us. As otherwise it drags milder air into eastern Europe from Georgia and the Black Sea. 

    Although it is unlikely to come off like that at that time frame so this is all academic at this stage. 

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Stunning chart at 342 on the para, right in the heart of winter.

    Would make up for the near misses and long wait if this came off

    top one looks like a bunny!

     

    gfsnh-0-342 (2).png

    gfsnh-1-342.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    GFSP shows a route to the Holy Grail....

    image.thumb.png.ad096fe6542443578d0b6ff99b05270b.pngimage.thumb.png.b2c14f97404b89ffaf2df5cf2508031f.pngThe Beast awakens!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Really disappointed with EC..

    There is virtually no vortex to our north west but still the lows keep a coming..

    image.thumb.png.443a36b487bc84563012a62ae0d0a561.png

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Really disappointed with EC..

    There is virtually no vortex to our north west but still the lows keep a coming..

    image.thumb.png.443a36b487bc84563012a62ae0d0a561.png

    Yes. And that bloody azores high🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬

    Probably wont verify at that range is the only positive. Our easterly is in Iceland lol

    Edited by joggs
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    Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
    13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    No interest between tomorrow and 144 hours?!!!

    Snow in the north east possible early hours of tomorrow morning but Looks marginal. 

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    And possibly here in the south ,weekend, not seen Ecm yet so will look later .cheerz gang ,quiet on here this morning. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    9 minutes ago, legritter said:

    And possibly here in the south ,weekend, not seen Ecm yet so will look later .cheerz gang ,quiet on here this mograb the Stella's... Er think tonight's charts are the ones to watch rning. 

    On 18/01/2021 at 08:25, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    deepest FI, but 2nd GFS run now to go for a 27/28 Dec 2000 type event!

    prectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.pngprectypeuktopo.pnghgt500-1000.png

     

    4 hours ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    I cannot recall seeing such crazy synoptic patterns in a long time - probably more fantastic than any of the charts drawn up by snow mad members when they were little nippers as some were reminiscing the other night. 
    Reasons not to happen:- Azores high in Iberia, too much Atlantic energy, MJO unreliable, our crud luck.......

    At least the charts brought a smile

    gfsnh-0-276.png.8298d424e3be78a108d312d8b0016a55.png

    gfsnh-0-252.png.908678702d269a95cb69516d3c52a4ce.png

    gfs-0-336.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Really disappointed with EC..

    There is virtually no vortex to our north west but still the lows keep a coming..

    image.thumb.png.443a36b487bc84563012a62ae0d0a561.png

    Why we disappointed? Look at the bigger picture, we have zero vortex in the usual place it calls home which means there's scope for very very interesting charts to pop up over the next few days, I think by the wkend we'll be looking at the cold spell on its way 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    As suggested, once we reach Feb there is a possibility of change as we see changes in the NH profile. The gfs was suggesting a Pacific ridge as maybe a response to the MJO but again as they play with this idea, they start to move away after further runs. Will the MJO signal be overriden? 

    Now gfs is on the 0z in FI returning to the potential solution it was edging slowly to pre-EPO+. A NW>SE jet and the UK in the confines of the trough. The gefs mean d8-16:

    anim_osa9.gif graphe3_10000_307.2703399658203_149.86061096191406___.thumb.png.f4f6c4ca6a531eb76c6a21e52bfc663e.png

    All rather tentative, but two main clues are the return of mean lower heights to our NW and the mean Iberian high returning to the Azores. The London ens^^^ suggests, as we would expect, a cooling down from the jet being pushed south again.

    So the solid support up to around d10 x-model of the pattern and then likely changes as we head into Feb, but low confidence atm until the models can agree on the way forward.

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    7 minutes ago, Mild Mannered said:

    Hello.

    I have watched weather patterns for some years. People mention the Azores high pressure. It is very strong & elongated across to Portugal and Spain. With that sitting there it is impossible to have proper cold in southern Britain. I will learn how to put a chart into my message to show.

     OK we get it but if you could have a word with the azores to do one and fast... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Really disappointed with EC..

    There is virtually no vortex to our north west but still the lows keep a coming..

    image.thumb.png.443a36b487bc84563012a62ae0d0a561.png

    image.thumb.png.92ec4057dd67e8bf514a368732106ad9.png

    This tells you all you need to know sadly. Cursed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    I’ll take one COBRA run please 😂 

    CF8B55E9-7732-4AF5-8FBB-ED8C0649121A.jpeg

    Like they say in here maybe a trendsetter?!!yeh right🤣🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    2 hours ago, Mucka said:

    GFS ensembles perhaps just beginning to sniff out the sliders a little better although the snow hound P10 is unfortunately an outlier with its day 7 Winter charge.

     

    gensnh-10-1-144.png

    Yes definite improvement, back edge snow tonight followed by snow chances almost anywhere throughout.

    Showers & battleground marginal events, but marginal can sometimes equal marvelous!

    Let's hope that snowline begins to move south from Scotland over the coming weeks.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    Really disappointed with EC..

    There is virtually no vortex to our north west but still the lows keep a coming..

    image.thumb.png.443a36b487bc84563012a62ae0d0a561.png

    I would stay clear of the mean eps in the medium term.  Strong ridging to the south extending a little north towards the UK.

    The Det at least has some promise.

    GEFS much colder than the EPS in the extended period.  Wish it was the other way round!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    B-E-A utifull !!!!!

    paralel is sticking to its guns if it’s last few runs so it’s a trend now!

    1E08B570-4953-4FE1-841E-B9749E25F3D0.png

    0F204811-ED8D-4D2E-8C53-C19344ECB636.png

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