Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Froze were the Days]

CFS has muted the cold blocked signal out now into the 1st week of February (surprise surprise)...not good news! Even to mid-Feb (though very early to call looks less interesting). Typical that when we do see real cold to our east/north east we get barrelling Atlantic depressions to the west the likes of what we haven't seen for over a month...

Still all to play for but I've got a bad feelin' about this one!

[Ice Day]

The Para is showing some Scandi height rises around the 3rd Feb

The GFS showing some Scandi heights a couple of days later

Just very broadscale at the moment, but good trends all the same

 

[Froze were the Days]

It's what's out west we should be interested in...certainly the spoiler to the goodies, we need a bit more amplification.

[Vikos]

 

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

 

I have no idea about the SSW impact as we move into Feb so putting that aside we are awaiting the MJO Rossby Wave signal. It enters phase 7 around early Feb, so add 7-days for average response, by Feb 7th we should see a Pacific wave. The Atlantic should see a sympathetic ridge 1-3 days later, so d10 may be too early for anything MJO related?

gfs Feb 7th chart> 

Hopefully the ebb and flow plus wedges and maybe SSWE impacts can fill in until then with some colder weather. 

NB. Caveats as to the validity of the MJO signal and any interference to the expected composite reaction.

[rowan fawdon]

Could some one enlighten me , as a rookie lurker, -what is a Bartlett? Cheers! 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I certainly wouldn’t want to be calling the end of this week into the weekend yet. It could be rain and double figures for all or blizzards in the south with winds between the east and north across the country.

The fact that the Arpege never gets the milder air north of the Midlands is quite telling. A wide envelope even at the four day range.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Ice Day]

The 6z short GEFS show very nicely the growing risk of a renewed cold incursion from day 7.  Cracking morning of model watching - now time for some radar watching 

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

36 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

CFS has muted the cold blocked signal out now into the 1st week of February (surprise surprise)...not good news! Even to mid-Feb (though very early to call looks less interesting). Typical that when we do see real cold to our east/north east we get barrelling Atlantic depressions to the west the likes of what we haven't seen for over a month...

Still all to play for but I've got a bad feelin' about this one!

CFS hasn’t exactly been accurate with the freezer charts it has shown for weeks now so maybe it’s a good sign it is now showing less cold charts, the cold may now arrive!

Well proper cold it has been a colder winter than we are normally used to overall 

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

CFS hasn’t exactly been accurate with the freezer charts it has shown for weeks now so maybe it’s a good sign it is now showing less cold charts, the cold may now arrive!

Well proper cold it has been a colder winter than we are normally used to overall 

   

Whoever puts trust into CFS... well....

[Frosty.]

Such a complex set up..the ECM 0z ensemble mean for example does trend colder again following a short milder blip..there has been some epic output today, the Gem 0z for example..hmm...wow, just wow..anyway..I have everything crossed that the best of this winter is ahead of us..oh yeah, are you enjoying today’s snow darn sarf..if not right now..then Shirley very soooooooon!!

[northwestsnow]

Some places are going to be very wet some very white!

The further south the jetstream the better.

Of course the Atlantic could wind up and blow things away too, models weighted to a -AO so I think its unlikely we will see a traditional Euro high and Flat zonal pattern.

Edited January 24, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Tim Bland]

Aperge  still going for the low sliding on Tuesday ... FI is 48hrs! 

[Neilsouth]

Just shows how unreliable models can be even at this close range! Front today was expected to be further south, has traversed further north and north east with a mild sector across the south east. A lot more people had rain than expected too! So yes 10 days is just for fun? Nope today is! 

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Just shows how unreliable models can be even at this close range! Front today was expected to be further south, has traversed further north and north east with a mild sector across the south east. A lot more people had rain than expected too! So yes 10 days is just for fun? Nope today is! 

Any thoughts on that pesky mild sector.. will it scoot off and allow more snow

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

   

Whoever puts trust into CFS... well....

No I don't put trust in the CFS as I said the other day, I've only being showing the charts of recent days as there has been a fairly continuous blocked signal which of recent runs has been muted...as for GFS(P) snowmaggedon charts, that's hardly been verifying particularly well, but the posts keep coming!

Edited January 24, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[SLEETY]

CFS is crud dont know why people use that model,it never verifies when the time reaaches reality.Anything after midweek is up in arms,could end up in the proper cold or it stays milder,lots to be resolved

Edited January 24, 2021 by SLEETY

[johnholmes]

Sunday 24 th update from jh

Ec lost its ridge and gfs ‘found’ it, same place about; close on w’ly into uk both, flow into Europe split southern=trough, n’ern=w’ly?

Noaa little change on 6-10 , most of w’ly into uk is s of border; 8-14 is pretty much w’ly from lhLH edge chart, trough over ne russia to e end, again little flow n of border w’ly for uk; this contour showing 534 DM on both = fairly cold so no major warm up I would suggest, just what may occur on individual days is hard to decide. Ec links suggest, today, 30/01-3/02 fairly general w’ly with minor troughs-ridges, with main surface low staying w of uk; 850 temps shown -5 briefly wash-outer Hebrides before retreating ne of Scotland. Second ec chart sun 24/01-wed 03/02 starts ‘cold’ warms out by T+72, colder again by sat 30/01(-5 or <) borders area, with brief n’ly into s 0/-5 in s and stays with 0 to -5  tempo > 0 to end run T+24 on wed 03/02

So take your pick, which will be nearer the mark. The EC does show what could happen with the day to day flow based on the 500 mb charts in my view. No ‘real’ warming up other than now and then?

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

Numerical Weather Prediction Maps | MeteoCentre.com

METEOCENTRE.COM

 

 

[fujita5]

1 hour ago, rowan fawdon said:

Could some one enlighten me , as a rookie lurker, -what is a Bartlett? Cheers! 

 

Taken from an ancient NW post by Essan...

"A 'Bartlett' High (also referred to as a 'Eurotrash' High) is a very persistent area of high pressure situated over Europe during the winter months - for Britain this means weeks or months of very mild though often wet and windy weather under a predominantly southwesterly airflow. The worst possible conditions for anyone wanting cold and snow. A typical 'Bartlett Winter' was '88/'89 - one of the mildest winters on record.

The terms is sometimes wrongly used to refer to any short lived period of high pressure over Europe"

So a temporary ridge over nearby continental Europe is NOT a Bartlett, it's a long term feature.

[SqueakheartLW]

Looks like GFS 06z isn't even nailed on with the milder weather coming up next week, particularly the further N and E you go

For me in Scunthorpe this is the 06z 850hpa ensemble spread

Considering how close that milder period is in the chart there is still a fair amount of scatter even at this range. Hope these 4 coldest outliers are the trend setters for next week

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Although all of these charts get milder air close or into the S and W they don't get the mild air anywhere close to the N or E and the lower pressure dominated options could be snowmageddon for someone along the boundary

Also further out there are some more colder options showing up too

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Plenty of cold interest further out as we head into February and these colder options keep showing up, particularly easterly options over northerlies.

[Climate Man]

2 hours ago, rowan fawdon said:

Could some one enlighten me , as a rookie lurker, -what is a Bartlett? Cheers! 

 

Don't say that word in here!

[Frosty.]

Guys..Guys..Gals.., please believe me when I say there is some cold potential in the extended GEFS 6z meannnnn...all too play for?!

Edited January 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Mjo update, looks like we will need to put up with 6 for a little bit.

Nice to get away from the computer models today and take the 3 year old for her first sledging experience!

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge  still going for the low sliding on Tuesday ... FI is 48hrs! 

NMM showing the sider with snow for the north midland etc

[phil nw.]

Just a heads up folks.

Will close this thread shortly so just hold back on further posts for a few minutes.

Ta.