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Model output discussion - into the last third of January

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted

It seems to be a rinse and repeat pattern between cold to the north east and those pesky iberian heights coming in and ruining everything. When will it end.

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted

Wouldn't mind the Gem coming to pass mind. Snow galore.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

It seems to be a rinse and repeat pattern between cold to the north east and those pesky iberian heights coming in and ruining everything. When will it end.

Are you a gambler...? 

I'm not, but an educated guess would suggest continued stress on the strat at the turn of the month, a dip back to briefly negative (easterlies), would certainly shake things up. At most zonal wins are forecast to return to average at best. 

So, even if not heralding a beast it means the rinse and repeat can continue to deliver wintry spells. Not to be underestimated. 

Edited by Griff
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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Are you a gambler...? 

I'm not, but an educated guess would suggest continued stress on the strat at the turn of the month, a dip back to briefly negative (easterlies), would certainly shake things up. At most zonal wins are forecast to return to average at most. 

So, even if not heralding a beast it means the rinse and repeat can continue to deliver wintry spells. Not to be underestimated. 

I'm certainly a gambler. Good point you make  too. I just want a snow day and I'd be happy out. Personally I don't want a month long freeze but I  want to see some snow fall for a a few hours and hang around for a few days.

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Ecm, coming soon! 

ECH1-144.gif

ECH0-144.gif

We need the low pressure to flattern out, more like a rugby ball rather than a football, with it been cut off and just slowly meandering about moving east, there's a good chance that could happen as it becomes a weaker feature, with cold air over the UK I think we could well be entering a snowy spell. 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

We need the low pressure to flattern out, more like a rugby ball rather than a football, with it been cut off and just slowly meandering about moving east, there's a good chance that could happen as it becomes a weaker feature, with cold air over the UK I think we could well be entering a snowy spell. 

I need a tropical holiday and a prepaid pension! 

The weather sadly will do its own thing, regardless of the charts.  

To be honest I'm just looking for disruptions and amplification leading to possible height rises, none of which need to be extraordinary under current circumstances with a decent chance of cold nearby

Bingo beautiful

ECH1-168.gif

ECH0-168.gif

Edited by Griff
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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted (edited)

I'm liking the profile to the north east at 192 on ECM, perfect angle of the Arctic \ Scandi High.

 

ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

Edited by KTtom
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, KTtom said:

I'm liking the profile to the north east at 192 on GFS, perfect angle of the Arctic \ Scandi High.

 

ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

Cool, and you've posted the ECM

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Good morning, looking out the window for snow to start falling and charts like this pop up! 

ECH1-192.gif

ECH0-192.gif

Morning Griff , yes me too lol

Good charts from ECM this morning 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Where the hell did that ECM pop up from?

Day 8 looks feb '96 reminiscent 

My naughty dreams! That's where. 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

Where the hell did that ECM pop up from?

Day 8 looks feb '96 reminiscent 

Yep - gorge 168....not even stupid FI range either. 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Not often you come in here of a morning and see such wonderful upgrades!

Usually more like you've taken the beer goggles off after the 18z.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Good morning, looking out the window for snow to start falling and charts like this pop up! 

ECH1-192.gif

ECH0-192.gif

 

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I'm liking the profile to the north east at 192 on ECM, perfect angle of the Arctic \ Scandi High.

 

ECMOPEU00_192_1.png

 

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Where the hell did that ECM pop up from?

Day 8 looks feb '96 reminiscent 

Should have known, look at the gem...  

gemnh-0-192.png

Edited by Griff
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
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Posted

Morning

Uncertainty after day 6 / next weekend with regards to deep cold pool dropping SW over NE Europe and height rises appearing over GIN corridor. 00z EC brings in a NEly at day 7 but Atlantic low pushes in day 8. GFS doesn't get as far as the NEly before pushing in the Atlantic low. Models maybe underestimating the blocking potential to the N/NE and the surface cold trying to push W/SW.  Interesting developements afoot, would expect the Atlantic lows to be forced under cold block developing to the N and NE. Models, especially GFS, probably too progressive.

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted

Such a wind up, just when you think the North will win those bloody iberian heights keep fighting back. Let's hope they're being over egged.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Such a wind up, just when you think the North will win those bloody iberian heights keep fighting back. Let's hope they're being over egged.

I wouldn't worry, overall steps in the right direction. Enjoy

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

With more of a wedge now showing for Wednesday/Thursday, could we continue to squeeze some more improvements as it comes closer?

Arpege for example

923AED7E-33A4-47D3-8293-3D362EF1513B.png

62DCC067-90C7-4F3D-A7F6-2D54D69F883F.png

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

I wouldn't worry, overall steps in the right direction. Enjoy

True . Encouraging signs.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
8 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Such a wind up, just when you think the North will win those bloody iberian heights keep fighting back. Let's hope they're being over egged.

Maybe prudent not to get hung up on what the models are showing past day 6 / T+144 me thinks.

A lot of uncertainty with blocking developing to the N and NE next weekend, deep cold pool moving SW over NE Europe while to the NW cold pool spilling south out of Greenland trying to power up the jet stream towards the UK.

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Maybe prudent not to get hung up on what the models are showing past day 6 / T+144 me thinks.

A lot of uncertainty with blocking developing to the N and NE next weekend, deep cold pool moving SW over NE Europe while to the NW cold pool spilling south out of Greenland trying to power up the jet stream towards the UK.

True. Suppose the main point to take from the models at the moment is cold is never far away.

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