Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Don]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Nothing much for most of us I suspect. The reds and oranges are still over or near to Spain so that will really limit opportunities.

Had better make the most of that snow tomorrow then!

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

His idea of southern England is the midlands though!

Well from latest data, 

a shift N and potentially warning area may need shifting east slightly (not to include me or anything)

who knows if we will see there famous and accurate amber warnings

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Uncertainy said:

you sure?

Yup, only one winner from there. Always bet on mild with southern heights. Also look SW as heights will likely be reinforced by new high cells. That could go the 'full Bartlett'. 

I'm just talking about that run to be clear!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The latest GFS shows the majority of snow now reserved for the south Midlands ?

The South once again manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Edited January 23, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[Uncertainty]

3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

you sure?

Though the para is showing how this can go wrong, the WAA is half hearted 

Still no clearer this eve

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The latest GFS shows the majority of snow now reserved for the south Midlands ?

The South once again manages to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

That maybe so,

but didn’t think the GFS was doing well at handling this event?

looks more ECM has this nailed..

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The OP gets better later in the run, I think the GFS runs are messing up the MJO forecast, they seem to try to recover out of the blue later into their runs, ukmo and ECM will interesting overnight

Is that because the GFS is slower with the MJO progress and could it be a Nina interference?

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Yup, only one winner from there. Always bet on mild with southern heights. Also look SW as heights will likely be reinforced by new high cells. That could go the 'full Bartlett'. 

I'm just talking about that run to be clear!

 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Though the para is showing how this can go wrong, the WAA is half hearted 

Still no clearer this eve

Yep, the // went bad, but the op GFS, that seems to have gone the full seahorse at T348:

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Don said:

Is that because the GFS is slower with the MJO progress and could it be a Nina interference?

Yeah could be both, GFS also keeps the MJO amplitude lower which could be a factor. Can't say it will be wrong though

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Yup, only one winner from there. Always bet on mild with southern heights. Also look SW as heights will likely be reinforced by new high cells. That could go the 'full Bartlett'. 

I'm just talking about that run to be clear!

Look at the jet! That is not a Bartlett chart! It’s heading almost due north from Azores towards the pole with a 1050mb N.Scandi high advecting Siberian cold around the rear towards Europe! With a trigger low about to disrupt near the U.K. 

Where’s the southern heights???

 

On the other hand the para illustrates your point perfectly!

[Don]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yeah could be both, GFS also keeps the MJO amplitude lower which could be a factor. Can't say it will be wrong though

It always seems what can go wrong does go wrong these days!  However, far too early to say if this will be the case.

[Allseasons-Si]

That system is still pushing NE!!!!

hmmm!

[Jason M]

23 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Look at the jet! That is not a Bartlett chart! It’s heading almost due north from Azores towards the pole with a 1050mb N.Scandi high advecting Siberian cold around the rear towards Europe! With a trigger low about to disrupt near the U.K. 

Where’s the southern heights???

 

On the other hand the para illustrates your point perfectly!

Yup, not saying it will pan out like that, but once heights settle in that area they can be persistent and its an option that shouldn't be discounted. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

That system is still pushing NE!!!!

hmmm!

No it isn’t.  The top half of that showing red dies out it is the bottom half that goes on to deliver whatever snow we get as per the latest models. 

[Jason M]

GEFS out to 276. A few cold runs in there but overall a bit meh. Will probably be better by T1000 hours as usual though . Anyway, we get a shiny new set in the morning.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No it isn’t.  The top half of that showing red dies out it is the bottom half that goes on to deliver whatever snow we get as per the latest models. 

You will probably be ok for snow, but I feel I'm too far south now.  Had a feeling this could go wrong, although that won't be confirmed until tomorrow!

[Battleground Snow]

GEFS look like they are struggling with mixed signals to me, look at that scatter, mean still dives but it's getting pushed back,

ECM at 168 tomorrow is where I will be looking at with the most interest.

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GEFS look like they are struggling with mixed signals to me, look at that scatter, mean still dives but it's getting pushed back,

ECM at 168 tomorrow is where I will be looking at with the most interest.

 

Bad night all in all.  Tomorrow looks like a non-event for the far south and longer range less good also!

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No it isn’t.  The top half of that showing red dies out it is the bottom half that goes on to deliver whatever snow we get as per the latest models. 

I am only saying what it shows on the tin and that looks to be pushing NE to me,i am sure you will do fine out of this snow event and i hope you get a good dumping but what i am stating is there are chances further north looking at that latest radar.

[Bartlett High]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Bad night all in all.  Tomorrow looks like a non-event for the far south and longer range less good also!

Don't worry it'll be frigid come mid Feb/late Feb/early March.

[Cryosphere.]

40 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That system is still pushing NE!!!!

hmmm!

indeed...more bones too chew on as thats much way further north..

[Cryosphere.]

26 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am only saying what it shows on the tin and that looks to be pushing NE to me,i am sure you will do fine out of this snow event and i hope you get a good dumping but what i am stating is there are chances further north looking at that latest radar.

agreed....changes are a on-going..northern areas may be game..or with a shout. good for a covering. The most northern point is non script..surprises are, what they are.  btw...great freezing fog in stockport right now.

 

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 144 and GFS at 174.

More snow events possible.

 

[Phil Blake]

Alot of post in here should maybe be confined to the regionals. 

Onto the models and gfs looks like a wedge going up at t144 and trough disrupts se at 168. Ukmo has the low more organised. It should disrupt se too but who knows. 

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Phil Blake