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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Just now, Frosty Winter said:

The latest CFS run brings in an easterly by the 7th February with a beautiful cold pool to tap into to our NE. Another run that continues the trend for a cold spell during February that I was speaking about earlier as well!❄️
 

Well. Seem to me a historical February with CFS

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh, goody goody gum drops, here are the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

What to make of that, eh?!

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Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent

Model fatigue for in here for some. Or a bit of reverse psychology going on; I’m not sure..

Early February looks like the next chase for widespread snow for the UK and the background signals are showing little chinks of light in the current output. 
 

Keeps me interested that’s for sure. 

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Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps control even snowier than the 00z run in that a larger area under deep snow by day 12/13 ...... would be nuts !

but unlike the 00z run, it then breaks down as a system moves in from the west 

Is the EC control run viewable, BA?

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
21 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Still looks like the higher areas getting the most snow on that chart?

That would always be the case wouldn’t it?

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
3 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

Is the EC control run viewable, BA?

complete_model_modez_2021012312_318_18_1
METEOLOGIX.COM

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/05/2021, 06:00pm of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "United Kingdom"

 

 

Screenshot_20210123-200120.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:
complete_model_modez_2021012312_318_18_1
METEOLOGIX.COM

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/05/2021, 06:00pm of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "United Kingdom"

 

 

Screenshot_20210123-200120.png

Crikey, almost as busy as your notification bar!  

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
8 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

Model fatigue for in here for some. Or a bit of reverse psychology going on; I’m not sure..

Early February looks like the next chase for widespread snow for the UK and the background signals are showing little chinks of light in the current output. 
 

Keeps me interested that’s for sure. 

I've had a few days off watching the models and everything is still 10+ days off

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, thestixx said:

I've had a few days off watching the models and everything is still 10+ days off

It really isn’t ...... parts of the south will see a couple inches of snowfall tomorrow ........ 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Snow White said:

I wouldn’t think that chart would break down. I think it would be a similar situation to 21st March 2013 where the cold air wins.

image.thumb.png.10f91fcf1771ff09359d223db4eddca4.png   
 

thats day 15 ...

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps control even snowier than the 00z run in that a larger area under deep snow by day 12/13 ...... would be nuts !

but unlike the 00z run, it then breaks down as a system moves in from the west 

Wow. The UK is purple. Control run of this evening. Excuse. Double post.

complete_model_modez_2021012312_306_4855
METEOLOGIX.COM

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/05/2021, 07:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

 

Knipsel.JPG

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Dissect at your pleasure. Thinking further North and beefier front

image.thumb.png.2204180fea4524456d5779f99b650c9f.png

 

 

Screenshot_20210123_204924_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Dissect at your pleasure. Thinking further North and beefier front

image.thumb.png.2204180fea4524456d5779f99b650c9f.png

Screenshot_20210123_204414.jpg

Aperge looks inline with the radar

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon adjusts slightly north again with the band of precipitation, looks further north on current radar too.

 

Just edited pic to 20.30 not 19.00

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM mean . OP was near the top of the pack later on.

 

 

london_ecmsd850 (4).png

At D8, about 70% of the ECM ensembles have low pressure going underneath higher pressure to the NE (mainly weak ridges), and not many runs at all getting the 0C uppers line through the SW. Looks like next weekend will, again, have wintry potential for many areas. Control run is the leading mongral with a ridiculous amount of snow to start February.

Certainly has a SSW feel to it - Atlantic keeps looking like it might take over in our latitudes but lacks the energy to do so.

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