Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Griff]

Just a note on how unusual this looks to my inexperienced eyes, splats of disorganised purple blobs, a bit fragmented, probably nothing though  

Edited January 22, 2021 by Griff

[MJB]

Getting there , block forming out in the Atlantic 

[Tim Bland]

1st week of Feb and rain turns to snow as it hits the cold air then it looks like an easterly flow with snow showers ...

Edited January 22, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Battleground Snow]

Nice split on the NH view 

 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

Harmonie at 48 hrs. 

 

 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Nice split on the NH view 

 

Vortex looks very different on this run... Remarkably so. 

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just a note on how unusual this looks to my inexperienced eyes, splats of disorganised purple blobs, a bit fragmented, probably nothing though  

Develops to this, T192:

Good run this, exactly what we should be seeing given background signals...

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Griff said:

Vortex looks very different on this run... Remarkably so. 

Indeed, it's just for fun, but it's absolutely cracking.

 

[MJB]

Looks good 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

What is best model for dew points? Slight concerned im at 90 asl (on downslope of chilterns). And this is current DP for 48hrs when peak snowfall expected (GFS)

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Vortex looks very different on this run... Remarkably so. 

This is gonna be a stonker!  looked messy but isobars now straightening, powerhouse northerly.

[Griff]

Dog's face and huge Arctic high 

[ICE COLD]

This is gonna be a cracker 

[MJB]

This looks stunning 

[ICE COLD]

I just wish this would actually happen . Better output the last few days . 

[Purga]

A cracking end to the pub run building

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

Interesting ICON much further SW for sunday. Intrigued from an IMBY who will out 

[Uncertainty]

 

As I said before, day 12:

Blocking = likely

Amplitude: Big time

Location: More runs needed! Though worth noting the trend today is more Greenland than Scandi...

[Vikos]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Develops to this, T192:

Good run this, exactly what we should be seeing given background signals...

I want to apply a copyright claim!

My hope that this trend keeps up, 00z has to pick the line up...

[Allseasons-Si]

25 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

 

As I said before, day 12:

Blocking = likely

Amplitude: Big time

Location: More runs needed! Though worth noting the trend today is more Greenland than Scandi...

Just joined and what an 18z run

...And viola...

 

^just look at that cross polar flow,...nice.

 

[Cloud 10]

Good ole' pub run.

 

lol,allseasons.

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Cloud 10

[feb1991blizzard]

P18 186 onwards is the encyclopedia to textbook clean undercutting without being littered with shortwaves that scupper everything.

Edited January 22, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS firming up on the resumption of cold, cyclonic weather as we go into Feb

850 mean a couple of degrees colder than the 12z suite by this point

Edited January 22, 2021 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEFS firming up on the resumption of cold, cyclonic weather as we go into Feb

 

 

850 mean a couple of degrees colder than the 12z suite by this point

Yes, some dreamy members in there with some proper non marginal dumpings.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come on my son get in there...some lovely ensembles emerging..

Tonight's ens may be onto something... just like a bus you wait ages for one, then hey presto a load turn up together..

Edited January 22, 2021 by MATTWOLVES