Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[carinthian]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lots of uncertainty regarding both snow potential re any breakdown from the Atlantic and whether the milder air will actually get to the far north .

 

Nick, I think this is a big upgrade from UKMO/ GFS at 144t.  A real squeeze going on mid week. Cold air actually intensifies to the North of Scotland compared to this morning run ( note the positioning of the 500-1000mb thickness values)  The 300mb jet  further south as well in comparison. Something is happening.  Looks like at least the mild air will now struggle to get into much of Scotland .

C

[nick sussex]

The question now are the models still underestimating the forcing on the pattern ?

Some corrections south over the last few days . Is that the end of them or are there more to come .

[Battleground Snow]

GFS at 228 (into Feb)

Wedges popping up in our locale, cold still with below average temperatures.

 

 

[Singularity]

The convective signal sure has moved quickly toward the West Pacific - at the faster end of the prior model spread.

Composite-wise, I'd use about a 2/3 Jan, 1/3 Feb blend, but water it all down a bit as we're not necessarily looking at a fully-fledged MJO wave according to some analysis going around on Twitter - but a flurry of Kelvin waves should still have some appreciable effect.

[Battleground Snow]

Scandi high pushing back the Atlantic at 288, the para was showing this in FI before we lost it.

 

 

[karlos1983]

oh my, brace yourselves. fl beauty incoming 

[MJB]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

oh my, brace yourselves. fl beauty incoming 

Quite wintry

[Battleground Snow]

Gem getting all wedgey too, hope to see the ECM show at least something broadly similar in FI soon.

 

[Matt H]

Maybe all of those CFS runs showing an easterly in February weren’t for nothing then. 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

oh my, brace yourselves. fl beauty incoming 

We can dream

Meanwhile gem is still interesting too

[MJB]

Lets hope this trend continues 

[snowking]

For those wondering about the 12z UKMO output for Sunday:

Difficult to make out given the big time steps, but it's generally still sliding SEwards

[Methuselah]

Winter at T+312... Guaranteed to verify!

    

And this is me: 

[Man With Beard]

The models have really kept us guessing about next week, and it's not getting easier - the cold/mild boundary still very much up for grabs, especially for northern areas.

In the meantime, models starting to firm up on some snow events further south this weekend - a number of areas yet to see snow this winter in the frame. Below is ARPEGE - it is in good agreement with  AROME, my choice for best performing short term model of the year, for the next 48 hours 

 

[Tim Bland]

 Best fantasy island for a while. Let’s hope it becomes a consistent signal and actually happens this time. Regardless of any background signals Feb is usually our best chance at widespread cold and snow

[karlos1983]

Heights are on the move, cracking ending possibly on the cards here.

 

[mb018538]

I think whatever happens in the remainder of January, there is growing confidence now that as we enter February patterns will start to shift, potentially very much in our favour at last. MJO moving into favourable orbits, a second zonal wind reversal, and ECM sniffing out a possible shift into a more easterly based -NAO than what we've had recently. All quite exciting, and I'm a pessimistic sod at the best of times.

 

[Pray4snow]

Nice to see more charts and positive posts guys. keep it up

[southbank]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Heights are on the move, cracking ending possibly on the cards here.

 

certainly in FI we seen a few hints of  'he who shall not be named on this forum'   sausage type flow - GFSp had it before dropping it be interesting to see over next few days how signal develops

[Methuselah]

Nice end to a nice run:       

And my friends are all present and correct, too:  

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12 z Op for 6th Feb

Outrageous FI from the GFS 12z Op with the -12 isotherm over the SE .....well it could happen i suppose !

[Mike Poole]

I think a consistently inconsistent signal in FI for some real cold is now starting to show up.  Like the end of the GFS 12z, and some earlier // runs.  Likely due to continued effects of the SSW and some help from the MJO.  Still way out in FI at the moment, but given the reasoning why this is a plausible evolution, I would expect the signal to increase rather than fade away in subsequent runs...we will see...

[Cymro]

38 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

The models have really kept us guessing about next week, and it's not getting easier - the cold/mild boundary still very much up for grabs, especially for northern areas.

In the meantime, models starting to firm up on some snow events further south this weekend - a number of areas yet to see snow this winter in the frame. Below is ARPEGE - it is in good agreement with  AROME, my choice for best performing short term model of the year, for the next 48 hours 

 

Excuse me if this is a stupid question, but reading that chart, is it not for next Wednesday rather than Sunday?? 

[That ECM]

Feels like there should be a on this chart. Who knows, maybe there is a pot of gold coming. We will see.

[Alexis]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Surely for February you need phase 8 not 6 or 7 (6 is similar to 7)

 

A Scandi High is probably more likely with 7 than 8 though