Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Vikos]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wow an outlier from day 6!!!!!could we see better disruption on day 5 and 6 this evening from ecm?!!

Day 5 is +120h, day 6 is +144h

Some have said multiple times that FI is around that timeline. 
The trend is bad on that EC, indeed. But is it constant?

[nick sussex]

Still uncertainty for the north in terms of when the milder air will arrive .

The further north you go the more spread appears in the ensembles. The models are still juggling with two opposing forces .

The Azores high wants to head ne in response to the upstream troughing set up and the Arctic heights trying to push sw .

 

[Battleground Snow]

@sheikhy

Snow falling v settled

 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

@sheikhy

Snow falling v settled

 

Ecm the best so far!!gives 2 to 5cms of snow widely and 5 to 10cms in favourable spots!!

[MJB]

Very much an IMBY post ...apologies 

Obviously won't work out like that , but might have half a chance 

[sheikhy]

In terms of sundays snowfall is that a move towards ecm i see on the gfs 06z!!!?

[georgiedre]

The lows for later next week seem to be a lot further south than yesterday.  Hopefully they will keep on pushing South every run

[MJB]

Interesting Monthly update from J Hammond , meanwhile GFS .............

 

GFS brings the cold back , liking this run 

Edited January 22, 2021 by MJB

[Froze were the Days]

Same old theme on the ecm...Atlantic for the foreseeable after a chilly spell first few days, continuous lobes of low pressure off the Norwegian coast from start to finish (when will this end)?

CFS still signalling blocking first week of Feb and then again around mid-month.

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Vikos]

EC giving no joy

 

but then first days of Februray there are signals of hope

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Very much an IMBY post ...apologies 

Obviously won't work out like that , but might have half a chance 

MetO now onboard with this at T+48

 

 

 

[Cold Winter Night]

2 hours ago, Vikos said:

Day 5 is +120h, day 6 is +144h

Some have said multiple times that FI is around that timeline. 
The trend is bad on that EC, indeed. But is it constant?

 

33 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Same old theme on the ecm...Atlantic for the foreseeable after a chilly spell first few days, continuous lobes of low pressure off the Norwegian coast from start to finish (when will this end)?

Our main hope for cold (besides possible snow and frost in places this weekend) is still beyond +240h.

EC might not be that bad in the end. The extended EPS this morning is significantly colder than last night, I was actually surprised to see this shift. More Northeasterlies in this set.

Up to +240h the High res Op and the Low res Control look very much alike, they both go quite mild.
Unfortunately we don't get to look at charts of the individual members like on GEFS, but on the De Bilt Plume (below) you can see that the control cools down quickly as soon as the calendar says February.
Considering the similarity between the two before that, my guess would be that the Op would have followed the control. Although the spread after +120h leaves a lot of room for changes (for the better) earlier on.

Interesting developments again!

[Scandinavian High.]

17 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

MetO now onboard with this at T+48

 

 

 

I’m hoping this happens the last yellow warning was cancelled at last minute..

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

I’m hoping this happens the last yellow warning was cancelled at last minute..

One of those, could go either way at this stage or even the very last minute!

[sebastiaan1973]

17 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

 

Our main hope for cold (besides possible snow and frost in places this weekend) is still beyond +240h.

EC might not be that bad in the end. The extended EPS this morning is significantly colder than last night, I was actually surprised to see this shift. More Northeasterlies in this set.

Up to +240h the High res Op and the Low res Control look very much alike, they both go quite mild.
Unfortunately we don't get to look at charts of the individual members like on GEFS, but on the De Bilt Plume (below) you can see that the control cools down quickly as soon as the calendar says February.
Considering the similarity between the two before that, my guess would be that the Op would have followed the control. Although the spread after +120h leaves a lot of room for changes (for the better) earlier on.

Interesting developments again!

We do! 

Model charts for Europe (Mean Sea Level Pressure) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/05/2021, 01:00pm of parameter "Mean Sea Level Pressure", model chart for map "Europe"

E.g. control.

[Battleground Snow]

Arpege, Harmonie and euro 4 GIFs for the next few days

 

[sheikhy]

Anyone got any update from ecm 06z for the snow on sunday?!same as 00z or different?!!

[Purga]

Apologies if in the wrong thread Mods - please shift if required but thought this may cheer the troops:

 

John Hammonds Monthly update is interesting 

MONDAY 25th JANUARY – SUNDAY 31st JANUARY

Mild air briefly fights back

MONDAY 1st FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 7th FEBRUARY

Dice loaded towards cold

MONDAY 8th FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 21st FEBRUARY

Continental cold

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, Purga said:

John Hammonds Monthly update is interesting 

MONDAY 25th JANUARY – SUNDAY 31st JANUARY

Mild air briefly fights back

MONDAY 1st FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 7th FEBRUARY

Dice loaded towards cold

MONDAY 8th FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 21st FEBRUARY

Continental cold

...and that comes from a non-bias meteorologist. We all know John loves a bit of snow or something untoward to get people on weather trending. 

[Vikos]

12 minutes ago, Purga said:

Apologies if in the wrong thread Mods - please shift if required but thought this may cheer the troops:

 

John Hammonds Monthly update is interesting 

MONDAY 25th JANUARY – SUNDAY 31st JANUARY

Mild air briefly fights back

MONDAY 1st FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 7th FEBRUARY

Dice loaded towards cold

MONDAY 8th FEBRUARY – SUNDAY 21st FEBRUARY

Continental cold

Link? Source?

[Duane S.]

Just now, Vikos said:

Link? Source?

Am guessing it is Weather Trending

[Purga]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Am guessing it is Weather Trending

Yes indeed

Latest UK weather forecasts and blogs

WEATHERTRENDING.COM

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Here at weathertrending we bring weather broadcasting back in from the cold – making it relevant to modern life and how it affects everything from what we wear to what we eat. John Hammond & Sara Thornton.

 

[Methuselah]

Crikey, the GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles are exciting! Come on, now -- do stay awake!

    

[O'Maille80]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Link? Source?

John Hammond's Month Ahead - Midwinter meteorological mayhem

WEATHERTRENDING.COM

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Snow fans are going through an emotional rollercoaster this winter but meteorologist John Hammond tries to inject some calm to the forecast.

 

[Vikos]

-edit-

Edited January 22, 2021 by Vikos