Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[snowspotter]

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

Edited January 21, 2021 by snowspotter

[Griff]

12z gfs is going to in a different direction in FI looking across the pond... 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

Frankly it's a cracking chart.. might even be the 1st bit of warmth in the sunshine.. and ready for a weekend in the garden setting things up.

Off I'll welcome a beast.  But if not to be then I'm more than I'm content with above

[Griff]

Take that Iberian high! 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Frankly it's a cracking chart.. might even be the 1st bit of warmth in the sunshine.. and ready for a weekend in the garden setting things up.

Off I'll welcome a beast.  But if not to be then I'm more than I'm content with above

I'd agree. Barring the odd slider over the next few days the nhp looks average at best. I think folk are getting a bit tired and suffering with model fatigue. I'd actually take some low level sun and decent temps to cheer me up atm. I think we all need some cheer

[Pray4snow]

Come on guys to much negativity in here 

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

Doesn’t last for long though

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

I think your correct. The current trend offers little and February is nearing. It seems chasing severe wintry weather is like politics, promises galore but delivers little in the uk

[Bricriu]

18 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

Who knows what could happen from there a few days afterwards. If you had been looking at model output prior to some previous noteable cold spells, you would likely have expressed the same cynicism as regards the prospects of a cold outbreak ever happening.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Bricriu

[Coopsy]

18 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

It’s reminiscent of Feb 2019 charts to the untrained eye. 20oC was hit back then....

[MJB]

20 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

I'm not sure you fully understand what the results of an SSW are / can be .

I should also add it can't be the effect of the SSW when its in the future 

Edited January 21, 2021 by MJB

[sebastiaan1973]

The pressure is rising at Scandinavia, but it is to weak to stop the yellow/orange train from the Ocean. GEM

Edited January 21, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[swfc]

Just now, MJB said:

I'm not sure you fully understand what the results of an SSW are / can be .

I do and looking at the output, nhp and PV it Dosnt at the moment look like bringing any joy to the uk ie widespread wintry weather. The PV has been on its ars for many weeks but most areas have seen very little wintry weather of note. Things can and could change but there are zero guarantees for us in the UK via a SSW,mjo ete. 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

We the pressure rising at Scandinavia, but it is to weak to stop the yellow/orange train from the Ocean. GEM

Not exactly screaming scandi heights at the end of the run

[sebastiaan1973]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Not exactly screaming scandi heights at the end of the run

The lack of high pressure at Scandinavie is one of setbacks of this winter.

[Singularity]

   

Hmm - UKMO 12z has questioned how a more amplified Atlantic trough and Iberian high might play out for the middle part of next week.

It manages to combine a peel-away low from the Atlantic trough with a small low hanging out to our northeast, which serves to keep cold air closer to our north as of +144.

I'm not sure what would happen next - would the little low north of the Azores merge with the one to our north to keep things colder (but probably not cold away from the north), or would the bigger low west of the Azores catch up with it first and drive a balmy southwest flow akin to GFS? - but it's a reminder not to presume that the majority model outcome will be the way forward in the 5+ day range.

[MJB]

6 minutes ago, swfc said:

I do and looking at the output, nhp and PV it Dosnt at the moment look like bringing any joy to the uk ie widespread wintry weather. The PV has been on its ars for many weeks but most areas have seen very little wintry weather of note. Things can and could change but there are zero guarantees for us in the UK via a SSW,mjo ete. 

My point is anyone thinking cold weather is a given because of the SSW clearly don't understand what the variety of outcome's can be .

 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

   

Hmm - UKMO 12z has questioned how a more amplified Atlantic trough and Iberian high might play out for the middle part of next week.

It manages to combine a peel-away low from the Atlantic trough with a small low hanging out to our northeast, which serves to keep cold air closer to our north as of +144.

I'm not sure what would happen next - would the little low north of the Azores merge with the one to our north to keep things colder (but probably not cold away from the north), or would the bigger low west of the Azores catch up with it first and drive a balmy southwest flow akin to GFS? - but it's a reminder not to presume that the majority model outcome will be the way forward in the 5+ day range.

Would the phasing not drive amplification? Driving the trough over the North Sea SE?

Interesting UKMO but is it to be trusted?

[sunnijim]

30 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

Is this the fabled SSW effect we’ve been hearing about since mid December?  A big fat Azores/souther European  high pumping warm air from a westerly direction ? Don’t tell me ‘Mid February looking great for coldies ‘

It has been discussed and studies have shown that the type of SSW that occurred can promote Southwesterlies over our part of the world.

No real surprise to see the latest model offerings to to me.

[SLEETY]

Boring gfs run again,likewise icon,and ukmo and probably ECM ,think this SSW event isnt going to deliver anything special,remember its a 30% chance of  a SSW NOT  bringing bitter cold to the UK looking increasingly likely this SSW is in the 30%  chance of the bitter cold not arriving.

Might as well get the Azores high over us then,bring a bit of spring warmth and dry everything out,,better than this endless cold rain and wind crud.

Edited January 21, 2021 by SLEETY

[joggs]

Yes, a bad outlook for coldies. All the dream charts were nearly day 10 tbf. SSW happens and tbh we knew it didn't guarantee cold. 

I just wonder what the main driver is?.

[Timmytour]

There is a lot of pessimism in here, but people should always remember that there was a lot of mild weather around this time of the month in January 1948, and we all know what happened then don't we?

That's right....it ended up being the wettest January of the 20th century over England and Wales!!

Second half of February bought some chilly snowy weather though.....

 

 

[MJB]

As always lets see where the OP sits within the ENS 

[Vikos]

So, if things are just so clear and no more winter to come, why not just hit the logout button and sign off instead of moaning around in the Models thread? 
yes gfs is not showing anything good but the models are just low in performance and FI is still very close. 
 

jezz, everywhere the same, be it English or German forums... shows we are all the same

[MP-R]

30 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

It’s reminiscent of Feb 2019 charts to the untrained eye. 20oC was hit back then....

I wouldn't say no to a February 2019... from the snowy start, to the brief Atlantic spell in the first week, to the lengthy springlike spell... personally it's the next best thing in February to a proper cold spell, especially after the recent flood misery. The Atlantic did come back more than at all during the winter in March though.

     

A key difference here though is that we didn't have heights to both the north and the south. Either we could do with one of them shifting or a large enough gap between Atlantic lows to allow a sort of link up (the less likely of the two scenarios I feel). If not, it's just a very tedious and wet outlook.