Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

As far as the GFS 00z and its ensembles go Member 3 is my favourite as overall it keeps cold going or very close throughout the entirety of the run.

gfs-scunthorpe-gb-535n-0.thumb.jpeg.60aab9069edada7c0a4db506971ebdf5.jpeg

The above for Scunthorpe clearly shows the next few days cold spell as well as a trend for another milder interlude later in the month but this still isn't nailed on with all that scatter even then. Member 3 is one of those that doesn't have this milder interlude for Scunthorpe at least anyway and overall it stays close to -5 at 850hpa throughout the run. There is a trend to go colder again later on but this region is also full of scatter, more so than where the milder spell is.

Member 3 selected charts

+144 hours

image.thumb.png.43ae8f6c007e87de6bca1f2a384ad0f2.pngimage.thumb.png.e8eb0d19a8d1e063e5526d8b4f245734.png

A nice little snow maker here for some northern parts of England, hopefully Scunthorpe gets in on the action here

+216 hours

image.thumb.png.4e49c2b5d973db034f173a810ec288a5.pngimage.thumb.png.466a260503e9b2768306c15ea9e39b2d.png

A real battle taking place here with mild from the west hitting cold high to the east. Maybe a possible snow event here in the east especially

+384 hours

image.thumb.png.3358c5ed06cd3663485a0338445feb7b.pngimage.thumb.png.c4bc29e5da80e91a90a1dacb446383b1.png

After this the cold high just wins and sits close to the UK

Other good charts

Member 2 +282 hours and +324 hours

image.thumb.png.2fe378f69a8bc3ba573c02ac4ed7b920.pngimage.thumb.png.b918341b18dba041e1c1c639db56ede6.png

image.thumb.png.29fd76f448b201ff4c795076454d0d64.pngimage.thumb.png.6bb4ff263b810deac85cc280d7e9eb37.png

Member 4 +324 hours

image.thumb.png.ff00db54aeda5238780707aa4e906228.pngimage.thumb.png.c4dcbb51e963c2492a092cfb3f9be642.png

Member 24 +354 hours

image.thumb.png.e5889966496a2105f8fe06266f2f7834.pngimage.thumb.png.0cf8c64786a5ae64fed45151a63e499a.png

Also a few nightmare charts to show how much it could all go wrong in the potential colder period later on

Member 12 +378 hours

image.thumb.png.92c4467525c37baa2fbc0be33d3bad14.pngimage.thumb.png.46e516d9d864e8ada78c7f234f6e4b2a.png

Member 14 +306 hours

image.thumb.png.1b496f85fb010a7495a08f809c3b806d.pngimage.thumb.png.224f4f4055813834f5d0f8fafa98b655.png

Member 23 +360 hours

image.thumb.png.6efe2bc8e5728fd5b6fd627f122911dc.pngimage.thumb.png.9f04239d9dec605bc3f097028cd135af.png

Member 29 +282 hours

image.thumb.png.5399cf13b4f239cc3801dcb6c9f574c7.pngimage.thumb.png.3424635d617b3c4d0201b106cf291779.png

Basically cold in the near term. Most likely milder to end the month but this isn't guaranteed with a few colder outliers still in there then a trend to colder later on but as has been seen with the few charts just above this there is still the chance of a milder spell even into early February too

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
14 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Does this also apply to the EC MJO? It looks a bit more conservative without so many outliers then GFS

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Phase 7 is preferred

• Many ensemble members in the GEFS and ECMWF predict the MJO to emerge over the Western Pacific during the next two weeks. • This forecast should be taken carefully; both of these models have had similar forecasts over the past month, which have not verified.

From the same source.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Just now, IDO said:

• Many ensemble members in the GEFS and ECMWF predict the MJO to emerge over the Western Pacific during the next two weeks. • This forecast should be taken carefully; both of these models have had similar forecasts over the past month, which have not verified.

From the same source.

Thank you. Now it's the question which influences there have been for the forecast to be wrong. Was it the SSW? Or even less airplane traffic (C0/NOX/trails) due Covid? Right now we are on the standards of first years of the 80's regarding air traffic all over the world.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Thank you. Now it's the question which influences there have been for the forecast to be wrong. Was it the SSW? Or even less airplane traffic (C0/NOX/trails) due Covid? Right now we are on the standards of first years of the 80's regarding air traffic all over the world.

We should know soon as the data over the next two days will qualify the forecast either way. Good question and would be interesting to know the reasons apart from any signal being overriden by the SSWE, or El Nina opposing the normal MJO signals, or as you say data assimilation?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

Charts showing a changeable theme from middle of next week with a possible uptick in

 Temperatures,still some uncertainty of how long mild spell could last GEM good example.

The exact orientation and tracks of the Atlantic lows are still open to change inclusive of

overall push against colder continental air.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Pretty poor 0z ecm this morning it has to be said...with an increase in Atlantic activity, only 1 run but I thought we were entering another period of interest late Jan/early Feb?, looks the opposite to me.

CFS still retaining a signal but if the ecm doesn't come on board at the same time juncture, little hope.

cfs-0-336.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, should these charts for 29/2 verify (I've found that the FV3 can be quite successful with plumelets, at times) my voluntary farm work could well recommence!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Spanish plume

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very late in the run, but maybe a weak MJO response on the OP.

It's a shame the para run has got stuck at 102.

 

gfsnh-0-342 (5).png

image.thumb.png.e12b82889309a54b34509becd9ebc6ec.png

Hopefully the start of Feb is the one to watch 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

See post further up.

There is no MJO movement.  They're false signals caused by Kelvin waves.

With no MJO and a failed SSW, there is little cheer and we can maybe hope for an early Strat final warming to bring some late Winter promise into early March.

How can it be a false signal for something that hasn't happened yet, we will only find out if it's incorrect in a few days. The ncep Article said that confidence is low on the forecast, and to remain cautious, they didn't say it wouldn't progress into the west Pacific.

Also that tweet is referring to the end of January, not into February, with a 10-12 day lag, we wouldn't see the effects until 1st of Feb at the earliest.

Edited by Battleground Snow
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Just now, Cold Winter Night said:

Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about?

 

Apologies, I meant failed as in providing a sustained (+7 days) proper cold spell to most of the islands of Britain and Ireland.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
41 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

See post further up.

There is no MJO movement.  They're false signals caused by Kelvin waves.

With no MJO and a failed SSW, there is little cheer and we can maybe hope for an early Strat final warming to bring some late Winter promise into early March.

are the next 5-6 weeks all set in stone then, and is there no possibility of some interesting weather in February?

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Apologies, I meant failed as in providing a sustained (+7 days) proper cold spell to most of the islands of Britain and Ireland.

I might be wrong but wasn't the cold spell in March of 2013 caused by the SSW in January 2 months before? We have a lot of winter left to get something good out of it 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
37 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

How can it be a false signal for something that hasn't happened yet, we will only find out if it's incorrect in a few days. The ncep Article said that confidence is low on the forecast, and to remain cautious, they didn't say it wouldn't progress into the west Pacific.

Also that tweet is referring to the end of January, not into February, with a 10-12 day lag, we wouldn't see the effects until 1st of Feb at the earliest.

The issue is that the La Nina base state is Pacific West based, and that the MJO signal will come out of COD into that region is maybe just the algorithms reading the Kelvin Wave as an MJO wave? This has happened recently as well as in the last two years. This could be a coincidence, both enso and MJO spiking at the same place at the same time, but realistically qualifying on the data we have, it is not worth relying on the MJO to reboot the poor NH profile until we know for sure? The models will know shortly and will correct the MJO forecast if need be.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
15 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about?

With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread.

- There actually was a SSW, that is actually still ongoing. So that part did not fail.
- Seeing the difficulty the models are having (the verification stats posted earlier this morning show how all models drop), it is very likely we are already seeing the effects in the output, and in reality. So that part probably did not fail either.
- The influence of the SSW comes in waves and covers a period from as little as 9 days to as much as 60 days (or perhaps even more). So we are just getting started with this SSW. You seem to dismiss any February opportunities, which is truly odd on January 21st. In other words, it's way too early to call it a fail.
- Finally, that the SSW so far did not result in a load of snow on your doorstep (nor on mine), does not mean it 'failed'.

For your own sanity, drop the IMBY outlook, look at the hemispheric picture, don't put too much trust in FI output (+144h and later) and reserve judgement on the SSW and its effect at least until mid March.

Enjoy whatever weather you have now, and just be curious about what might happen in a few weeks time

The SSW happened, and it has not 'failed'; it is what it is . . . but Hypers Anonymous clearly have failed -- but then they usually do!

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Apologies, I meant failed as in providing a sustained (+7 days) proper cold spell to most of the islands of Britain and Ireland.

No need for apologies, I am not mad at you

It's just what I said, there are no promises for our backyards, but for all we know right now, there might be a legendary February around the corner. With a very sustained cold spell for you and me. Or the mildest one ever!
That's the reality. It's way too early to call this.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

The latest 10 dayer video from the Met acknowledge the SSW has happened and explained that the colder than average weather we are currently experiencing is because the SSW has pushed the jet stream to the South .

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Just now, General Cluster said:

The SSW happened, and it has not 'failed'; it it what it is . . . but Hypers Anonymous clearly have failed -- but then they usually do!

Summed up my thoughts, so deleted my musings, and will just add, reality<expectations!

The mean in fi for the 06z back in line with my personal expectations for post-d10:

gensnh-31-1-324.thumb.png.69530b432f581941c89feb2226990fc3.pnggensnh-31-0-324.thumb.png.2b3cf92e2417ca4b325bf3857eaf517a.png

Flow from the NW>SE with a colder than average setup. Azores High, vortex to NW, Arctic High Asian side, and the axis of cold remaining Asia to Canada but the movement of the coldest pool towards the conus.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

No need for apologies, I am not mad at you

It's just what I said, there are no promises for our backyards, but for all we know right now, there might be a legendary February around the corner. With a very sustained cold spell for you and me. Or the mildest one ever!
That's the reality. It's way too early to call this.

The impacts of ongoing strat (to trop) events can linger into spring, so it seems we may have to contend with unsupported supposition (both for and against colder chances) for some considerable time to come.

Why don't we all use charts to demonstrate future modelling and and data to support recorded occurrences? Disappointment and complaints belong in the moan thread. The mods don't need the hassle.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...