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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And heeeeyyy! The GEFS 12Z temp ensembles are 'picking up', 'trend-setting', ''mind-blowing' a snowy nirvana . . . sometime well after Day 10::santa-emoji:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

What's more, there's a 'loony (I mean 'trend-setter') perb' in there too . . . Over to you @Jon Snow?:drunk-emoji:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

UKV looks like it’s following UKMO for sat?!

70C56C0C-A4C7-4E76-9237-BFB0AA0D9829.jpeg

We are none the wiser by the looks of it lol, I just posted the FAX and its way south ^^^. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Yes the first thing that caught my eye was the ecm day 10 Russian High at such a latitude which in years gone by always gave us a chance further down the line (probably be gone by tomorrow)...secondly next thing to catch me eye was that bloody Norwegian coast short wave popping up after giving it a rest for 1 almighty day!!!...if that was to somehow to stop any real cold from the east getting to us I'd give up watching the models altogether after firstly sawing my leg off with that hacksaw.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, chris55 said:

We are none the wiser by the looks of it lol, I just posted the FAX and its way south ^^^. 

Developing feature was just a kink in an isobar a day before so understandable uncertainty over the track and depth of the feature, as we’ve seen on the 12z model output, not sure that fax will have yet factored in the 12z models?  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Outrageous chart ....no more likely of verifying than -16 upper BFTE in FI im my opinion. That's what I'm telling myself anyway to keep me in good mental health

But, but . . . but, isn't that nailed on?:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

ECM 12z ensemble mean looks very similar to the UKMO regarding the system on Saturday. Could deliver a decent snow event by the look of it!

945AFD54-20E1-48E3-8C08-B0BAA0E78A1B.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
47 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

So, the much-delayed Xmas 2020 BFTE, is still on track eh, Fred... I blame it on Covid!

Pete, the question was can anyone see any positives on the ECM, so my answer is what I see on the model not what WILL happen?  

Anyway I’m very happy that we turned cold on Xmas week timing wise which was on nicely on track.  Models toyed with the beast but alas not to be .  

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Hoping as many get some snow as possible over the coming days...

Might be a while until the next shot judging by the EC mean which seems to be getting worse by the day.

BBC monthly updated today is also very poor.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
10 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ECM 12z ensemble mean looks very similar to the UKMO regarding the system on Saturday. Could deliver a decent snow event by the look of it!

945AFD54-20E1-48E3-8C08-B0BAA0E78A1B.gif

I expect the fax would have looked different if they had seen that mean before creating it...

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping as many get some snow as possible over the coming days...

Might be a while until the next shot judging by the EC mean which seems to be getting worse by the day.

BBC monthly updated today is also very poor.

I think we need to make the most of whatever flurries we get between tomorrow and tuesday!! Still not ruling out any changes after 144 hours but its not looking good right now!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Pete, the question was can anyone see any positives on the ECM, not what WILL happen?  

 

BFTP

A mere technicality, mate!:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hoping as many get some snow as possible over the coming days...

Might be a while until the next shot judging by the EC mean which seems to be getting worse by the day.

BBC monthly updated today is also very poor.

Yep the mean is going one way milder and milder . Probably a good time to not look at the models for a week . (But it’s so hard not too ) 

The horrible SW winds are coming back

A05BCD2C-FE94-4434-BDE3-30DAD869A8BA.png

BC03BC1F-95CC-4B83-AE13-5AB059BC0F3E.png

130EC249-19B2-4EFA-9C57-BDADACE45AC4.png

28982710-A432-4E23-8581-FBB252FC536E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A mere technicality, mate!:drunk-emoji:

Not if it does descend

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

spacer.png

Outlier for me

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I think we need to make the most of whatever flurries we get between tomorrow and tuesday!! Still not ruling out any changes after 144 hours but its not looking good right now!

ECM will follow the GEM if a change is coming...

Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,

Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,

To the last syllable of recorded time;

And all our yesterdays have lighted fools

The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!

Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,

That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,

And then is heard no more. It is a tale

Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,

Signifying nothing.

 

I just felt inspired and came up with a little rhyme for you

OK that might have been Judah Cohen or Marco P at the Met... Innit. 

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Posted
  • Location: Waterford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Waterford Airport
1 minute ago, Vikos said:

spacer.png

Outlier for me

Even so only trending one way after day 6 unfortunately. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, FreezingFog said:

Even so only trending one way after day 6 unfortunately. 

There's recent form for models to be too progressive and making inroads east... 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

Plenty of attention currently on Storm Christoph and rightly so with more rain falling over many areas again this evening. Looking further ahead, a colder weekend followed by a transition to milder weather early next week before, well, it depends. GFS OP last evening was relentlessly mild but other models were showing a change in the pattern to perhaps something more settled as height rises over Scandinavia started to manifest at the beginning of next month.

Let's see where this evening's offerings take this - will it be the finest cut for cold fans or scrag end?

12Z GEM: T+120 takes us to next Monday (25th January). The remnants of Christoph are over southern Norway as part of a complex trough extending into south-eastern Europe and western Scandinavia. A ridge of HP approaches from the south west heralding the arrival of milder air with a large LP in mid-Atlantic and heights over the Canaries. 850s between -4 and -8 over the British Isles at this time. The evolution from there to T+180 is more complex than seemed likely yesterday. The energy from the Atlantic trough forms a small LP over the north of Ireland but that slides SE and the next push of energy also disrupts as heights build from the north toward the Faeroes. The LP elongates in the Atlantic with a shallow residual trough to the east and a more significant LP over the Aegean. Milder air has pushed in to southern and western Britain but has stalled across central parts with colder air to the north and east as a SE'ly flow develops in the west and calmer conditions elsewhere. From there, a real stand-off develops. The Atlantic trough continues to disrupt SE while heights develop to the north of the Faeroes with a weak ridge through the north and east of the British Isles. A frigid air mass to the north east over Scandinavia is inching closer with embedded troughs. The 850s reflect a steep temperature gradient with +4 uppers in the far south west and -8 uppers in the north and east.

image.thumb.png.5224cf236e755ec5d7288cd22b4b0915.pngimage.thumb.png.2aaab0a9f15f099eac1675074a4a2bc0.pngimage.thumb.png.76b3bdefd1e29675ee360ea15df74bb7.png

GEM ends with a real battleground and the evolution from there is anybody's guess.

12Z GFS OP - by far the mildest of the output yesterday. At T+120 the remnants of Christoph are closer than was the case on GEM stretching from the Faeroes to the northern North Sea and then down to the Balkans. The ridge is already into southern and western parts with milder air coming. Heights persist over Greenland and the Canaries. Uppers of -4 to -8 across the British Isles at this time. From there, the evolution gets quite complex - the Atlantic trough phases with the residual trough to the north and east and creates a complex elongated feature in which secondary LP run west to east across southern Britain. By T+180, the trough runs from mid-Atlantic to the Norwegian Sea and across Scandinavia with heights to the south. A mild SW'ly flow covers southern Britain with calmer conditions further north. Milder air with positive uppers is across most of the British Isles by this time with any colder air confined to the far north east. Moving on, the pattern continues with Atlantic LP moving east over the British Isles and by T+240 another LPis moving through southern counties with a NE'ly to its northern flank. Heights to the far north east and near the Azores. Still mild across the British Isles with positive uppers for most.

image.thumb.png.e7d5d202cb0f525afa0c1c52c1344cd4.pngimage.thumb.png.4e65c3927f24cb39bf7819a5f50c80f8.pngimage.thumb.png.22b7e5b8b98899a012b1e10daf60a593.png

A very different evolution to GEM with no sign of heights to the north and a generally mild and unsettled picture. Plenty of rain to come over the next 10 days as well.

image.thumb.png.f9ab537efef15632d0349282fc2d1f24.png

12Z Parallel - a very interesting evolution yesterday. at T+120 Christoph is even shallower to the north and east with the main LP now over south-eastern Europe. The ridge is coming into southern and western parts but a hint of height rises to the north west as well? Uppers of -4 to -8 over the British Isles at this time with milder weather approaching from the west. From there, the large Atlantic trough seeks to move east but disrupts and elongates close to the British Isles with small secondary features crossing central parts though a ridge does give a quieter day or two further south. At T+180, a complex shallow trough is just to the west of Ireland with heights to north and south. Winds remain from the SW in the south but variable further north. All parts except the very far north are in positive uppers by T+18- with +4 uppers across southern areas. From there, the pattern remains mobile and unsettled with more LP moving across the British Isles. By T+240, the main Atlantic trough is starting to move towards the British Isles as a complex and vigorous storm system. Mild air with positive uppers over all parts. 

image.thumb.png.4d53932dc3153252ca8a9d33fdb274e7.pngimage.thumb.png.8569a3afacce774967bfb2d4942c489e.pngimage.thumb.png.804ebc60fdd1a2065d5e7e7aa31e1cae.png

Both GFS OP and Parallel look mild and very unsettled with plenty of the wet stuff and little of the white stuff.

12Z ECM - by T+120 the remnants of Christoph sit off the Norwegian coast with a light NNW'ly flow over the British Isles. The ridge is approaching the south-west but the Atlantic LP seems weaker and shallower but that may be an optical delusion. Uppers of -4 to -8 over the British Isles at this time.  Moving on and the Atlantic-based regime takes over and by T+192 mild or very mild TM air is over all parts with an LP close to north-west Scotland and heights over Iberia. Positive uppers over all parts. As often happens, ECM teases in the last two frames of its output - by T+240, the Atlantic is looking much quieter and heights are building from the spouth toward the British Isles with a clack residual N'ly. Colder air is back into northern Britain but it remains mild further south.

image.thumb.png.a13a4280cc7b5fc5438efdece43a4456.pngimage.thumb.png.4883dbb75ab4fc33c34b63f97bfe7917.pngimage.thumb.png.c160fae115c6b1e1449b0b6e53d07f68.png

ECM joins the evolution to mild next week but the later stages introduce some new variables with a much quieter Atlantic than GFS and the hint of height rises to the south and north-east.  In common with all the other models, no sign of a raging zonal Atlantic or a strong PV over Greenland/NE Canada.

Looking further ahead, my usual glance at GFS OP and Parallel as we move into the first week of February at T+312 and T+384.

image.thumb.png.d0ef4d65e21dcd576b59fe79cfa5d6c2.pngimage.thumb.png.406873fb98c3dedc574555876b3628b6.png

image.thumb.png.fb905313ae3872ba80da89710a1b7fc8.pngimage.thumb.png.b4c96ca45ef3fc047f79a4a6f53fb55e.png

Well - both end with -8 uppers covering the British Isles but it's a long way off. It's not an evolution shared by Control which keeps the Atlantic in charge throughout. Interestingly, both OP and Control see the route through Greenland rather than Scandinavia so we'll see. Oddly enough, Control seems to split the PV in early February as does Parallel but OP not so keen.

Conclusion: cold fans will be hoping GEM is correct tonight but it looks on its own though JMA has a similar colder evolution by T+192. GFS and ECM nowhere near as keen at this time to go down any other route other than mild and unsettled. Some of the huge rainfall totals have eased off a fraction and both GFS OP and Parallel promise a much colder evolution in far FI as the Atlantic quietens and you'd think ECM might do something similar. The key here seems to be slowing the Atlantic and getting some amplification going - that may be indicative of the MJO moving into more favourable phases or something else. Control isn't interested which is a concern but while we look set for a milder interlude from early next week it's still far from resolved if it's a milder interlude or a more prolonged spell of Atlantic-driven weather.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM has a not bad output upto day 6 , delivers much milder weather day 7 to 9 and a not bad chart at day 10.

I still wouldn’t rule out further changes in the post day 5 output which continues to be a complex set up .

 

I agree but everyone else seems to think it's the worst run that's ever been produced.

Both GEM and JMA are interesting tonight and I don't consider either model rubbish - ECM isn't the be-all and end-all of models though again from some you'd think it was the only one worth looking at.

At day 10 it has a much weaker Atlantic and clear signs of amplification to the south. We may or may not have 7-10 days of milder weather but that's far from certain.

JMA at T+192 just to cheer up a few of the doom-mongers

image.thumb.png.a0df6908aa74eda5b6b929a9209963a3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Developing feature was just a kink in an isobar a day before so understandable uncertainty over the track and depth of the feature, as we’ve seen on the 12z model output, not sure that fax will have yet factored in the 12z models?  

Think it's the latest FAX.

It says 12z for today. I would assume it is produced on the 12z data, but not sure. Maybe we should wait for the updated Fax tomorrow morning. They are updated 12hourly I think.

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