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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I don't know, the article I shared is from Recretos/ Andrej Flis . In the past he was a regular guest at the stratosphere topic.

oh right, it might be something else then but im sure theres a severe weather site that hypes everything up, yes your right Andrej knows his stuff.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure how any snow could have fallen over Manchester by that stage when the purple missed.

Probably from these showers sun night through Monday? 

B93C9A1E-0745-4DE7-8483-0029C96DF415.jpeg

B3613E45-30EB-4115-80C9-134A278AA473.jpeg

47A7D5DA-3ACA-467A-B2CD-23CA4CAFB058.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Anyone find any positives from this ECM run? No, me neither.

AE59E806-B6B9-43FA-AE7F-D2104FBB0597.png

I do, maybe not to local (yet), but that cold pool is growing big time! If we manage to put our straws in this ice cold sangria bucket...

From spacer.png  to ---> spacer.png

 

It seems it sucks all the cold away from Canada

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Anyone got on any info on how to deal with an arctic high, it seems to me it is modelled at random, but has a massive difference down the line, on the modelled jet stream and blocks in the mid lats.  ECM T216:

A027E2BF-28A5-4A8B-A19C-AAEE1FF9DED1.thumb.png.d3fe416536d47e2cd9bb5dbef995d3e2.png

I’m not sure i would have put it ( the arctic high) there, ECM does, but still...if we are not sure at T72 - and we aren’t - who cares? 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyone got on any info on how to deal with an arctic high, it seems to me it is modelled at random, but has a massive difference down the line, on the modelled jet stream and blocks in the mid last.  ECM T216:

A027E2BF-28A5-4A8B-A19C-AAEE1FF9DED1.thumb.png.d3fe416536d47e2cd9bb5dbef995d3e2.png

I’m not sure i would have put it ( the arctic high) there, ECM does, but still...

I see this Iberia high and have the melody of "hello darkness my old friend (sound of silence" in my mind. This would be a gameover

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 hour ago, Griff said:

To be totally honest, lost track of what day it was earlier, let alone what the time is

It's always 10 days before you want it to be! :)

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Anyone find any positives from this ECM run? No, me neither.

AE59E806-B6B9-43FA-AE7F-D2104FBB0597.png

I do too.  HP over Northern Russia edging our way...it looks like it’s priming itself to cone our way...wait to see where it’s at t240

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

Following up on my post 24 hours ago, we still see changes in how EC models the same day.

Monday the 25th at +168h, +144h, +120h (today).

Atlantic and Europe very similar to yesterday, but watch the Russian High and the Arctic.

EC-168 18jan12.png

EC-144 19jan12.png

EC-120 20jan12.png

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Comparing EC 12z yesterday and today @ 29th (in the middle todays 00z)

 

spacer.png  spacer.pngspacer.png     

 

Not very good perfomance, either atm

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
24 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Anyone find any positives from this ECM run? No, me neither.

AE59E806-B6B9-43FA-AE7F-D2104FBB0597.png

Not in far flung FI no...

77FB5747-2AA0-4F60-8028-17962C7B33CA.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the ECM 12z operational..chance of a Spanish plume in early Feb?  ..   

89AC48EC-DB47-4870-812D-733EEF1C57F5.thumb.png.6f9e9df1a4b5c74cc4ff9fe846f5dd95.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z operational..chance of a Spanish plume in early Feb?  ..   

89AC48EC-DB47-4870-812D-733EEF1C57F5.thumb.png.6f9e9df1a4b5c74cc4ff9fe846f5dd95.png

Outrageous chart ....no more likely of verifying than -16 upper BFTE in FI im my opinion. That's what I'm telling myself anyway to keep me in good mental health

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM has a not bad output upto day 6 , delivers much milder weather day 7 to 9 and a not bad chart at day 10.

I still wouldn’t rule out further changes in the post day 5 output which continues to be a complex set up .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.

EC +240h not at all as bad as some make it out to be.

Heights extending from a Nova Zembla High into Scandinavia, heights lowering over East and Central Europe, Atlantic losing steam.
What's not to like about all that?

The Iberian High changes shape and location too much run-to-run to be too worried about yet. For a good spell initial heights in the Azores-Iberia area may come in handy anyway.

EC-240 20jan12.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Latest FAX keeping Saturdays low to the south.....UKMO must be an outlier, but can't be discounted IMO. Im assuming one of those troughs following behind is the snow prediction we are seeing for Sunday.

spacer.png

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