Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well it's a strange looking chart at 216 - not a million miles from the ECM earlier

Looks like things are slowing down across the Atlantic? 

I'll definitely get roasted for this, although not cold // starting to look mashable (?) in FI

Edit: for what it's worth, and possibly meaningless, para looks vaguely consistent... Not quite as amplified as 12z

Edited January 19, 2021 by Griff

[edo]

This run feels similar to the current period of weather, ensembles signal a return to milder weather but the mild spell actually dilutes and back into cold quickly. It has been rinse and repeat here since xmas eve with days of frost and occasional snow then a day or two warm up and i feel that is where much of the northern half of the uk is headed again. 

Currently snowing here unexpectedly and meto putting out a warning once the snow had started so perhaps the weekend worth attention as a nice feature keeps showing up for Saturday.

[heath]

Staying wet, unfortunately 

[Griff]

Just to annoy the purists... 

[Tim Bland]

Pun run FI special....

[Don]

31 minutes ago, chris55 said:

That'll do for an early Sunday morning walk..

And me!  Hoping to see some of the white stuff this weekend but not getting excited yet.  Lots of wind and rain in the meantime....

[Tim Bland]

GFSp doing it’s best to send those under Iberian heights packing ...

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Pun run FI special....

As is gfs op

[Cheshire Freeze]

Am I the only one looking at the charts tonight and thinking we could be in for some major flooding misery? Looks like low after low to me, and them slowing down won't do much to help the situation! It'll just rain for longer!

[Don]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Am I the only one looking at the charts tonight and thinking we could be in for some major flooding misery? Looks like low after low to me, and them slowing down won't do much to help the situation! It'll just rain for longer!

No, flooding certainly does look to be an issue.  Viewing the models this time last week and you would have thought amber weather warnings this week would have been for something else.....

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Am I the only one looking at the charts tonight and thinking we could be in for some major flooding misery? Looks like low after low to me, and them slowing down won't do much to help the situation! It'll just rain for longer!

Yep, January is going to be a wet month that’s for sure! Could be white at times but it will all end up in the rivers at some point !

[Griff]

Wasn't expecting such entertainment this evening 

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Am I the only one looking at the charts tonight and thinking we could be in for some major flooding misery? Looks like low after low to me, and them slowing down won't do much to help the situation! It'll just rain for longer!

Yep, whether it's wet or white, there's going to be a lot of precip around over the next 10 days by the look of things.  Just a few charts below from the GFSP showing a lot going on at the end of the month (not that these should be taken too seriously at this point).  

  

[Anthony Burden]

Very interesting GFS 18 z pub run regarding severely low Greenland Temperatures showing 

up in fantasy island,one to watch along with a continually changing final week of January blowing 

mild and cold.Lots to be interested in for the beginning of February and the next 5 or 6 days.

Not a boring scenario good watching.

[Tim Bland]

If we can get those lows this far south then an easterly could set in...perhaps a freeze of the floodwaters will help..

[Roger J Smith]

Well apparently Rome can get a slider anyway ... 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Wasn't expecting such entertainment this evening 

 

 

I wonder if on Sunday 31st at 8am, we will be saying 'Bloody hell, wasn't expecting such a massive dumping from a big unstable Easterly'

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Wasn't expecting such entertainment this evening 

Ive been saying we need a wow emoji alongside the 'thanks' and 'like' !

[Battleground Snow]

Scandi heights showing again on para

I'm hoping the MJO won't be destructively interfered by the la Nina as it's weakening all the time

 

[snow mad]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I wonder if on Sunday 31st at 8am, we will be saying 'Bloody hell, wasn't expecting such a massive dumping from a big unstable Easterly'

In a word no

[sheikhy]

And i say it again only for the 00z to bring everyone back down to earth!!love the guys commitment on here!!!defo something to admire!!❤

[Griff]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

And i say it again only for the 00z to bring everyone back down to earth!!love the guys commitment on here!!!defo something to admire!!❤

We need to petition for the return of the response/like... 

[chris55]

Didn't realise it was the para Griff was posting.... but still seeing as its late im joining in..

[Roger J Smith]

It's not a situation entirely without hope by any means. 

First of all, the models underestimated the current map features considerably as recently as 9-10 days. If they do that again maybe it will be in terms of underestimating a cold flow. 

Then there's that 1050 mb high north of central Russia, it is supposed to recurve away from Europe eventually but so far it hasn't stopped moving west and shows signs of remaining strong. So it could potentially be more help than it might seem from model runs. 

Also these Atlantic frontal waves are never all that strong or anomalously warm, and as we've seen not every one of them maintains its existence from model run to model run. 

The 18z GFS takes several weaker ones a lot further south than previous runs. 

It may all add up to very little, but it makes me faintly optimistic that come February, cold may have its day. Maybe not the best phrase there.

[chris55]

JFF

Edited January 19, 2021 by chris55