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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well @chionomaniac and @Catacol (among others) were talking up the opportunities for something notable happening around the 20-21st of January from early this month.  Whilst the pattern is not quite what was envisaged or hoped for, it's not actually been a bad call at all.  Much of the UK is likely to see some extreme weather, with many in with a chance of  snow over the next 3-5 days.  However, still not via the deep cold that many on here crave!

I think that we're just going to have to be patient, after the weekend we will probably have to endure a milder week or so before some potential interest in early Feb via the predicted follow up SSW with chances of a split PV

Lot's to look forward to, but I think we're a few days away from some FI eye candy (please make me a liar GFS!!!)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yet again, so far, the wheel of fortune where cold is released further south has eluded us. But whilst this pattern of disruption continues, there is still a chance that the wheel keeps rolling, and we can be in the firing line. ( may need the MJO to assist)

Absolutely, if we manage to avoid at least a week of deep cold before winter is out that really would be some feat, even by the UK's lowly standards!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

Must be an overwhelming factor as why the wheel of fortune has not landed well for us in the uk (for deep cold) when such a well forecasted SSW came to fruition. Is it just to down the split failure 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

Must be an overwhelming factor as why the wheel of fortune has not landed well for us in the uk (for deep cold) when such a well forecasted SSW came to fruition. Is it just to down the split failure 

I think so yes.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

Can someone tell me just how important the MJO is ?

Is it a deal maker / breaker in terms of snow for us ..................where does it stand in the " must haves" against everything else we mention for a cold Winter ? 

Might be impossible to answer 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think so yes.

Eh the phasing sega of those lows is defo a main culprit. We all saw the charts when it was on our side, the initial block set-up too far away from us due to an unlucky phase whether thats because of split vs no split can be argued but sometimes its the little things that screw us.

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Eh the phasing sega of those lows is defo a maint culprit. We all saw the charts when it was on our side, the initial block set-up too far away from us due to an unlucky phase whether thats because of split vs no split can be argued but sometimes its the little things that screw us.

I smelt a rat when that wave was still left in the Atlantic after the SSW in the upper-mid strat, knew that was trouble and thought that would transpire into Atlantic troughs at surface level, thought shortwave energy would scupper us, actually its rather larger lows than that and the Atlantic seems to have woken up,

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS 144 loving this run, my expectations are low

gfsnh-0-144.png

gfsnh-1-144.png

Less progressive at 162.

spacer.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

At 168 Atlantic front just edging the east coast on 18z..... was all the way too Norway on the 12z!

18z

spacer.png

12z

spacer.png

 

Im sure the mild air will win out eventually, ensembles look set on it, but interesting too see the slowing of the eastward progression.  

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I smelt a rat when that wave was still left in the Atlantic after the SSW in the upper-mid strat, knew that was trouble and thought that would transpire into Atlantic troughs at surface level, thought shortwave energy would scupper us, actually its rather larger lows than that and the Atlantic seems to have woken up,

We still had a ticket however, it was always a high risk one and if it did transpire we were laughing.

But I agree a split is best but we still gave it a good shot.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
37 minutes ago, MJB said:

Can someone tell me just how important the MJO is ?

Is it a deal maker / breaker in terms of snow for us ..................where does it stand in the " must haves" against everything else we mention for a cold Winter ? 

Might be impossible to answer 

MJO as it's affects for sure. In phase 5 and 6 we have some kind of blocking to our conditions, with phase 7/8 Northerly blocking with Greenland Heights become more likely, thus leading to - ve/NAO.. So colder for the UK increases.. The problem right now with the expected MJO increase to something more favourable coincides with LA Nina which could possibly be masking it somewhat. Everything is up in the air but I still feel we can get something favourable very soon. 

Edit.. Guys... All. I'm hearing is Snow possibly in the North and the South this weekend... What about us forgotten folks in the Midlands... Can we have some please

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, Griff said:

I'll probably be shot down, but if memory serves 180 on gfs and para looking less flat than a few days ago... 

gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

gfsnh-0-180 (2).png

They were indeed mate, lots more polar heights too it seems.

Interesting lets hope it actually leads to something.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

We still had a ticket however, it was always a high risk one and if it did transpire we were laughing.

But I agree a split is best but we still gave it a good shot.

GFS and GEM both modeling a split at the end of the month. 

Judah Cohen a bit concerned this evening that Europe might benefit ahead of USA... If gem is on the money. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well it's a strange looking chart at 216 - not a million miles from the ECM earlier

image.thumb.png.9b64980a28e81675105e952f79d58da3.png

Looks like things are slowing down across the Atlantic? 

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