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Model output discussion - into the last third of January


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Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    A fresh thread as we head into the final third of January 2021. There's a fair bit happening this week, including Storm Christoph with heavy rain, flooding, gales and snow all on the nearer term agenda. Please take a look at the Christoph thread for more chat about all of that.

    Model thread rules of engagement!
    As usual, please keep it to the models in this thread, and keep it friendly and respectful of other people's views.

    • If your post is discussing the model output, then it's fine in this thread
    • If your post is mostly not about the models, briefly mentioning a model by name or putting a chart in there does not make it model discussion - the best place for this sort of thing is the winter chat thread.
    • Please use the Met Office thread to discuss their outlooks.
    • A local slant is ok as many people prefer to look at the models with a view to their local conditions
    • Local 'will it snow type' posts, or local forecast chat are not suited to the model thread though, the best place for these sorts of posts is the regional area

    The stratosphere is a bit talking point at the moment, for more info and in depth discussion around that, please take a look at the Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch thread.

    Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
    UKV (Extra subscribers)
    GFS
    GEFS Ensembles
    ECMWF
    ECMWF EPS
    NetWx-SR (3km)
    NetWx-MR (9km)
    Met Office (UKMO)
    Fax
    GEM
    GFS Hourly

    Model Comparison
    Golbal Jetstream
    Stratosphere

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    Hmmm - poor comment. Easy to pick apart too. Historic January went up the spout when the vortex didn't split - and be assured it was a very narrow margin that decided it, but even with a displacement

    Back from my own COVID nightmare, and it sounds like I haven't been the only one on here. I'm just grateful to be sitting here able to post again, so here is a chart most wouldn't mind to get mys

    Sorry, but what 'failed SSW' are you talking about? With all due respect, but I really don't get why these kinds of comments keep returning on a daily basis on this thread. - There actually

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GEM and ECM look fairly similar for the possible snow on Sat / Sun. 

    49751D76-ADE5-4433-93F9-E4230775F37F.png

    D8EDF767-7DBE-42DD-8B1C-73518EFB9B52.png

    C926D81D-9035-4741-AE0D-3859B3D3B04C.jpeg

    87D0B3F6-2B37-4995-B7DB-0CA37D8C5DDA.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Who the heck knows

    Harmonie

    image.thumb.png.6d751fe72979b6f191ca911999538b22.png

    Arpege

    image.thumb.png.d8e72f9c69e5e188e1807cf91b5cfd74.png

    Nmm

    image.thumb.png.306be23c27eaa8a641f515a8110f6f96.png

    Euro4

    image.thumb.png.e9c40df1540ef269e9aa15f5dddaffe4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    Morning.. 🙂

    you can see how the rain intensifies for wales and northern England during tomorrow, a big temperature contrast North and south of this.

    184248404_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_36(3).thumb.jpg.fd806d2c3264646e2a736b2d8e04f91e.jpg

    1076076194_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_42(1).thumb.jpg.9cc9cbe2cea569d89af4661e74d15324.jpg

    1557696964_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_48(3).thumb.jpg.9d305cef43dab0eca34cb119d1c1febc.jpg

    rainfall totals look like being considerably higher than the 80mm I mentioned..  Atleast 130-160mm altogether for parts of wales and northwest England.. the arpege for example going with around 200mm

    00_90_ukprecipratec_acc.thumb.png.16ecc990e718f56dcca6bf713c6a686e.png

    a significant low pressure area then forms with much colder air being pulled into the front moving through wales then England later Wednesday into early Thursday, winds south to southwest ahead of the front and west to then northwesterly behind with the possible formation of a squally band of rain and with colder air moving into this sleet and snow perhaps falling for a short time in parts of northern England..

    00_47_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.bffc0fabf684fe8187b1dddbd7bad265.png

    Sleet, snow showers and longer spells of snow still likely for scotland later tomorrow into Thursday some of it heavy as it moves into most likely parts of the south and east of scotland Thursday before moving away Friday..  perhaps 15-25cm on hills 5-10cm to lower levels this easing Friday with snow showers inland during friday. 🌨️

     
    Still the possibility of a low moving through central or southern parts during the weekend bringing rain and possibly snow on its northern part although some uncertainty atm and the other area of focus is on wintry showers troughs may form within the flow bringing more lengthy rain, sleet and snow further southeast during the weekend.

    Gfs..

    1909399894_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_108(6).thumb.jpg.a818c0daaf3677aed6b5aaa6bb4a7b74.jpg

    Gem..

    1074130978_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_114(3).thumb.jpg.6d8ea4cb55a81423b087bfab9ee347d4.jpg

     

    Gfs jetstream forecast for the weekend..

    00_114_250mbjet.thumb.png.efe14eaf90e0c6fd13fc0cf4aa8cfc65.png

    Going to be a cold and frosty weekend for many especially scotland where temperatures may go as low as -10c in some of the coldest spots. 🌨️

    Into next week the jet stream running through southern parts at times.. a band of rain likely moving into the west on Monday and perhaps into Tuesday with snow on the leading edge for Scotland possibly northern England, elsewhere rain clears away, but whether this moves right through many parts with the above outcome which is the most likely one or will it less likely slow and perhaps slip southeast giving central and perhaps northern parts some snow will of course be resolved in the next few days.. but it moves through along with milder temperatures.. colder air may to stay close to Scotland and there's a possibility this may head southwest at times later on next week with further frontal systems possibly being blocked and deflected southeast of here which would increase the likelihood of snow in northern parts of England and Scotland on the northern edge of these but also increase the chance elsewhere..

    Gfs jetstream forecast Early next week..

    00_162_250mbjet.thumb.png.7c7a704858c735c1630d75013b645fbf.png

    00_180_250mbjet.thumb.png.65de6e3294740d238f2865315f970136.png

    Anyway next week low pressure is the main theme with Scotland most likely to be on the northern side of these lows and therefore further snow possibilities particularly hills.

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester

    The Arpege has the highest rainfall in areas a bit different from the metro warnings areas ? Not sure if it is the best for rainfall at high resolution?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Ec at day 9/10 likely to be sharper on the ridge just west of the U.K. with colder air adverted south .... 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Ec at day 9/10 likely to be sharper on the ridge just west of the U.K. with colder air adverted south .... 

    All eyes on mjo Nick?

    I posted last night about this but not sure where we are right now.( work constraints).

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Continual low pressure/shortwaves off the coast of Norway on the ecm 0z and other runs...something I've been alluding to for the last few weeks, warm SST's in relation to the landmass? this can't help as regards to the UK cold.

    Should add how similar day 10 is to last night...not often you get that at that range.

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ec at day 9/10 likely to be sharper on the ridge just west of the U.K. with colder air adverted south .... 

    I’m hoping air is colder then what we have had lately over uk  Especially south of uk.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

     A much better run this one, the Jet digging south leaving much of the East and North east in cold air. Slider chance here.

    B2356894-83AB-40CD-B5AC-230ECE419CCE.png

    D31FF656-0641-4DA3-AA87-7A1758EF6951.png

    FAE7F061-27CB-45A8-BA45-F108F625C88F.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

     A much better run this one, the Jet digging south leaving much of the East and North east in cold air. Slider chance here.

    B2356894-83AB-40CD-B5AC-230ECE419CCE.png

    D31FF656-0641-4DA3-AA87-7A1758EF6951.png

    FAE7F061-27CB-45A8-BA45-F108F625C88F.png

    A great set up for Scottish ski resorts, let’s hope COVID relaxes by March/April and they make some cash this year!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Aye, better this one, Tuesday looking interesting battle

    prectypeuktopo.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Tyne and Wear

    Just watching the 06z roll out.

    We have been unlucky so far this winter. The early part it was the Russian High stopping the cold now it is the high to our south the Azores High which is preventing the cold.

    There are signs that we will see lower pressure to our south but at the moment that’s all they are. At the minute we are in kind of no mans land between the cold to our north and the warmth to the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Even Day 10's losing its winter plumage: h500slp.png h850t850eu.png 😁

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    There is support by EC46. Especially after 8 February. And from CFS latest run. We all know how creative nature is in spoiling our winter weather, but there seems to be an opportunity. We have to wait and see.

    20210119082848-cc6eb463cf3d30ce62093cbf7
    APPS.ECMWF.INT

    Extended-range forecast of the NAO and blocking circulation patterns associated with high-impact temperature anomalies over Europe. At extended range the day-to-day trajectories are affected by substantial...

    Intresting comment

     

    Knipsel2.JPG

    Knipsel.JPG

    cfsnh-0-606.png

    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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     Quite a big change with the Ecm with in 24 hours, there are more likely to be more changes at short notice with this set up. so it is always best to think the output will change  quickly from day to day, and not take the output beyond 144 too seriously, as is shown below.

    Location Battersea London Gender Male.

    ECM1-168.gif

    ECM1-144.gif

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