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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Well true, but at least winter showed up for the battle in 2020-21, it was a draw in my books, which puts it ahead of many other recent winters. 

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    The official numbers show that the second half (15th to end including leap years) of Feb 2021 ranks fourth in the daily data era (1772 to 2021), this is the top ten now:  1. 2019 ___ 8.81 _______

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.  

    The February CET came in at 5.1C: 0.2C above the 91-20 average 1.3C above the 61-90 average 1.1C above the 20th century average 1.1C above the 19th century average Compared with

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    There’s definitely a 10 day mild to average window, possibilities of return to cold by last few days....I suspect there’ll be a cold Spring to pop up.  This cold spell for temps has been good...and incredible for the NH generally.  This winter is round 1

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    19 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Well true, but at least winter showed up for the battle in 2020-21, it was a draw in my books, which puts it ahead of many other recent winters. 

    Absolutely, a proper teaser winter.  Hopefully 2021/22 can go the full hog for cold/snow lovers as solar activity may still be favourable and who knows we might be in an easterly QBO?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    31 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    There’s definitely a 10 day mild to average window, possibilities of return to cold by last few days....I suspect there’ll be a cold Spring to pop up.  This cold spell for temps has been good...and incredible for the NH generally.  This winter is round 1

     

    BFTP

    Had 2 very mild springs and there was the exceptionally warm May 2018.. a colder one is due.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    On 12/02/2021 at 11:22, North-Easterly Blast said:

    From the Hadley CET page I cannot see that it has updated for the past two days.  It currently states the CET as 3.58*C to the 9th.  

    https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 0.9C -3.7C below normal, Rainfall unchanged

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    2.3c to the 13th

    1.8c below the 61 to 90 average
    2.3c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    I can't see the updated data since the 9th. Whether looking on different devices, browsers, clearing data, etc. Weird one.
    If someone with access could paste the provisional daily mean and min data I'd really appreciated it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    I can't see the updated data since the 9th. Whether looking on different devices, browsers, clearing data, etc. Weird one.
    If someone with access could paste the provisional daily mean and min data I'd really appreciated it.

    Weather history's link above works for me. Nothing else I've tried has, so worth a shot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    2.3c to the 13th

    1.8c below the 61 to 90 average
    2.3c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th

    Mmm another circumspect drop given many places struggled to reach a high of 2 degrees... expecting this will have a bearing on downward corrections.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    28th December 2020-13th February 2021 CET looks like about 2.7C for the CET, that is from the start to the end of the two coldest spells this winter.

     

    I've been comparing this winter so far on a par with 08-09 would be good to know what CET was for same period then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    I've been comparing this winter so far on a par with 08-09 would be good to know what CET was for same period then.

    I think the same period was about 2.2 in 2008-09

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest projections and probabilities:

    Feb14Project.thumb.png.0a15d2bbad7f6e8220fdff0a981a39c6.png Feb14Prob.thumb.png.eb2c021c4cc926f7481d71a8ea439083.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 47% (six days ago it was 25%)
    Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 7% (six days ago it was 5%)
    Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻46% (six days ago it was 70%)

    GFS for the 14th to the 19th averages about 6.4C, pulling the CET up to 3.6C.

    The 20th, while far off, if currently forecast to beat the daily record of 11.3C, so something to keep an eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    28 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Latest projections and probabilities:

    Feb14Project.thumb.png.0a15d2bbad7f6e8220fdff0a981a39c6.png Feb14Prob.thumb.png.eb2c021c4cc926f7481d71a8ea439083.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 47% (six days ago it was 25%)
    Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 7% (six days ago it was 5%)
    Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻46% (six days ago it was 70%)

    GFS for the 14th to the 19th averages about 6.4C, pulling the CET up to 3.6C.

    The 20th, while far off, if currently forecast to beat the daily record of 11.3C, so something to keep an eye on.

    Hmm - i would suggest a greater than 80% chance of finishing above 4 now tbh with a 50% chance of over 4.5

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Hmm - i would suggest a greater than 80% chance of finishing above 4 now tbh with a 50% chance of over 4.5

    Might well be right. For my projections I use the GFS to estimate the next 5 days, and then use the data from the CET record to project the remaining days of the month (I try my best to leave my own feelings out of it). They aren't always the best because they don't take into account the medium term trends, but then it's less likely to get caught out by models flip-flopping. 
    However, using my method, currently there's a 47% chance of finishing 4C or higher, and 22% of 4.5C or higher. These are all before corrections too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    I think the same period was about 2.2 in 2008-09

    Thanks for that. Yes seems right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield at 0.9C -3.7C below normal. Rainfall up to 73.8mm 113.2% of the monthly average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    2.3c to the 14th

    1.6c below the 61 to 90 average
    2.2c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    On 13/02/2021 at 20:08, Frigid said:

    If the warmth lasts till the last day who knows we could be going for a 6c CET. 3 years in a row with 6c+ February’s. 

    If it managed it, the period 2017 to 2022 could yet end up a repeat of the period 1867 to 1972 when five of the six Februarys were warmer than 6C and, despite the other being a relatively cool 2.8C, the average for the six year period was over 6C.  

    In order to match it however, as well as this year getting above 6C,  I think 2022 would need to come up with a value around 7.5c like 1869 managed........

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    30 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    If it managed it, the period 2017 to 2022 could yet end up a repeat of the period 1867 to 1972 when five of the six Februarys were warmer than 6C and, despite the other being a relatively cool 2.8C, the average for the six year period was over 6C.  

    ..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    As mild as the outlook is that would require the second half to average around 10C, it won't happen even before corrections.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    EWP only updated to 9th, any news beyond that please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP was 40 mm after 13 days, likely close to 50 mm as of 18z today with ten-day GFS output (to 25th) adding 25-30 on average. That would give totals of 75-80 mm. Maps for 26th-28th appear to add nothing, so our current estimate is 75-80 mm. 

    I have attached the latest excel scoring estimates based on 74.9 mm but in the annual standings, if you predicted a bit higher than 75 mm you would move up if we reach even just 80 mm as there are quite a few forecasts in that range, see the Feb column for your potential scoring increase if we do have a higher total (and the differential can be doubled because the people at the top had somewhat lower numbers and would drop points at the same rate you're gaining points). 

     

     

    EWP2020_21_Feb.xlsx

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 1.3C -3.3C below average. Rainfall 76.7mm 117.6% of the monthly average.

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