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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 1.5C -3.0C below average. Reading the average temp for Jan the last few days Doh.

    Rainfall unchanged at 68.9mm 105.7% of the monthly average.

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    The official numbers show that the second half (15th to end including leap years) of Feb 2021 ranks fourth in the daily data era (1772 to 2021), this is the top ten now:  1. 2019 ___ 8.81 _______

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.  

    The February CET came in at 5.1C: 0.2C above the 91-20 average 1.3C above the 61-90 average 1.1C above the 20th century average 1.1C above the 19th century average Compared with

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    2.7c to the 11th

    1.5c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.7c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    2.7c to the 11th

    1.5c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.9c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.7c on the 11th

    From the Hadley CET page I cannot see that it has updated for the past two days.  It currently states the CET as 3.58*C to the 9th.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Another significant drop 0.5 degrees. Suspect will see a similar level drop tomorrow update and then a slightly less drop day after, so we should just nudge into the 1s at the half way mark.

    As with 2009 and 2012 though a major flip to mild about to happen mid-month, but signs cold will return last 7 days unlike those 2 years when the cold first half was cancelled out by a very mild second half. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    I'm not sure the cold spell of this past week has quite lived up to the hype in terms of the depth of cold, let alone the depth of snow! It has not really impacted as much upon the first few mild days as I imagined many thought it might, and now looks as if it won't hang around to maintain the downward trend.  I can't see the CET falling below 2C before it starts rising again.  I imagine, looking through the guesses, there will be some regretting late decisions to revise downwards.

    For my part I've gone from thinking my guess of 4.5C made 10 days before the start of the month was going to be way out as "the Big Freeze" loomed to now thinking I could have done with tacking on a few more points to it!

    I don't see the month playing out from here to a mild end all the way, but I think it will get springlike at times  and while I can imagine a bout or two more of continental influence, I don't really see there will be the depth of cold attached to them to make a dramatic difference to what I think will end up being an average CET month.



     

    Edited by Timmytour
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    Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
    59 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    I'm not sure the cold spell of this past week has quite lived up to the hype in terms of the depth of cold, let alone the depth of snow! It has not really impacted as much upon the first few mild days as I imagined many thought it might, and now looks as if it won't hang around to maintain the downward trend.  I can't see the CET falling below 2C before it starts rising again.  I imagine, looking through the guesses, there will be some regretting late decisions to revise downwards.

    For my part I've gone from thinking my guess of 4.5C made 10 days before the start of the month was going to be way out as "the Big Freeze" loomed to now thinking I could have done with tacking on a few more points to it!

    I don't see the month playing out from here to a mild end all the way, but I think it will get springlike at times  and while I can imagine a bout or two more of continental influence, I don't really see there will be the depth of cold attached to them to make a dramatic difference to what I think will end up being an average CET month.



     

    I think your guess may end up being closer to the finishing mark  than mine of 1.4C but I am not sure you needed to make it any higher especially if things cool off again late in the month.

    On your wider point I think the saturated but rather warm ground prior to the cold spell hasn't helped with the sense of depth of cold feel you mention. Strangely here daytime temps are lower today despite the bright sun with the short sea track ESE'ly than earlier in the week with the NE'ly. 

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    6 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    From the Hadley CET page I cannot see that it has updated for the past two days.  It currently states the CET as 3.58*C to the 9th.  

    A few years ago Summer Sun and myself discovered that one of us could see the updates and the other couldn't, we concluded it was something to do with different browsers and cleaning the cache issues. I can see the updated data today. 

    The provisional numbers for the cold spell show an average of --0.1 for 7th to 11th. Unless the final values are 1.4 lower it would not have made the list that I showed a few days ago. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    As with 2009 and 2012 though a major flip to mild about to happen mid-month, but signs cold will return last 7 days unlike those 2 years when the cold first half was cancelled out by a very mild second half. 

    Sadly that signal looks to be fading now with February 2021 looking very similar to 2009 and 2012.  However, if it does have a very mild second half it will end up being milder than those two months as they started very cold whereas this February started on a fairly mild note.  I think my 3.2C is looking to be on shaky ground but still just about enough time for things to turn around.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    3 hours ago, Don said:

    Sadly that signal looks to be fading now with February 2021 looking very similar to 2009 and 2012.  However, if it does have a very mild second half it will end up being milder than those two months as they started very cold whereas this February started on a fairly mild note.  I think my 3.2C is looking to be on shaky ground but still just about enough time for things to turn around.

    There are still 16 days left...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, Relativistic said:

    There are still 16 days left...

    True but the current outlook is potentially exceptionally mild.  However, that could change of course!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Looking at the 18Z where do we see the CET going. Wouldn’t be surprised if we got to 5c. Fair to say this upcoming warm spell was very unexpected. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    Precisely. It will be mild in the immediate term, but the charts showing 16°C maxima are currently over 10 days away. I'll believe it when it's within five.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down 1.2C -3.4C below normal. Rainfall 68.9mm 105.7% of the monthly average.

    With a mild possibly very mild romp to the end of the month it looks like a month of extremes. Question is will the early spring like first materialise and will it be enough to bring Sunny Sheffield above normal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    2.5c to the 12th

    1.7c below the 61 to 90 average
    2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.5c on the 12th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    2.5c to the 12th

    1.7c below the 61 to 90 average
    2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.5c on the 12th

    Lowest point of month after today before a steady rise?  I think my 3.2C guess is on the rocks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I'd have thought the 14th would be lowest in the CET zone.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    2.5c to the 12th

    1.7c below the 61 to 90 average
    2.1c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.5c on the 12th

    Mmm that seems suspect was expecting another 0.5 degree drop, only 0.2.. tomorrow will be the low point, may not now drop into the 1s.. a rapid rise next week, a roller coaster month..

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    Mmm that seems suspect was expecting another 0.5 degree drop, only 0.2.. tomorrow will be the low point, may not now drop into the 1s.. a rapid rise next week, a roller coaster month..

    We could see a final CET in the 5's if the latest model runs are to be believed!

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    I'd have thought the 14th would be lowest in the CET zone.

    Today the coldest by far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    If the warmth lasts till the last day who knows we could be going for a 6c CET. 3 years in a row with 6c+ February’s. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    34 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    If the warmth lasts till the last day who knows we could be going for a 6c CET. 3 years in a row with 6c+ February’s. 

    A finish in the 6s would probably require second half to record a mean of 10 degrees.. not beyond possibilities I guess, but a very tall order.. the last week of the month could bring quite cold nights which will bring down the mean. A finish in the 5s a safer bet, and every possibility could be the 4s if we see a more marked cool down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke
    6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    A finish in the 6s would probably require second half to record a mean of 10 degrees.. not beyond possibilities I guess, but a very tall order.. the last week of the month could bring quite cold nights which will bring down the mean. A finish in the 5s a safer bet, and every possibility could be the 4s if we see a more marked cool down.

    Yes.  Now for some reason the data hasn't updated on the hadobs page, so I cant see the figures since the 9th.  But basically 1st week of feb had a cet of 5c, this week, overall I'd guess 0c.  6c overall would mean an average of 9.5c for the next 2 weeks - so that would mean December 2015 style warmth is needed for the next 2 weeks continuously.  Cant see this happening personally but wouldn't bet against 5c being reached.

    This would still give a very slightly below average winter though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    54 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

    This would still give a very slightly below average winter though.

    If February returns a CET of more than 4.2C, that would put winter 2020/21 above the 1961-90 average, so that's looking pretty likely now.  However, it would be below more recent averages.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The EWP has reached 40 mm and will add about 25 mm more according to the 10-day GFS (days 11 to 15 may add 5 more). That would end up around 70 mm, a rather average outcome. 

    CET looks to me like it would average 6.5 for the second half so the outcome there is likely to be in the high 4s. The 1991-2020 normal will be 4.9 so that's not really all that mild by modern standards. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    11 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    CET looks to me like it would average 6.5 for the second half so the outcome there is likely to be in the high 4s. The 1991-2020 normal will be 4.9 so that's not really all that mild by modern standards. 

    True, but would still be very disappointing for what looked like a month with the potential to be very cold.

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