February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

3.6c to the 9th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st

[summer blizzard]

It would seem that for all the excitement our warm start means the first third and first half probably won't be especially notable.

Are we at least looking at the coolest opening 1st-10th and 1st-15th since 2012.

[damianslaw]

Looks like we will bottom out by Sunday, next 3-4 returns will be very cold thanks to colder minima, we knocked off 0.5 degrees last 24 hours, a similar rate, and most likely greater rate will see us into the 1s by mid-month. However, a milder spell is looming and that will probably do enough damage to see a notably cold return, but every chance we will end up below average given signs of anticyclonic conditions quickly returning later in the new week.

[Sunny76]

19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I was in London in July 1965 which I believe is one of the few occasions since 1950 when a daily CET record  min was set. It was fresh to say the least, not quite as bad as June 1972 which was unbelievably cold feeling (I spent that entire month in Britain despite having emigrated to Canada before that). 

EWP is around 40 mm at this point, I won't bother to report on projections because model guidance at the moment is about as reliable as the average Nostradamus quatrain for making a weather forecast. 

I think summer 2004 and 1980 were pretty cold at times. July 2004 was chilly at times, I remember one day only reaching 13-15c in west London. That’s very poor for high summer.

 

[virtualsphere]

10 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think summer 2004 and 1980 were pretty cold at times. July 2004 was chilly at times, I remember one day only reaching 13-15c in west London. That’s very poor for high summer.

 

June 1991 and to a lesser extent May 1996 were also chilly.  I think June 1991 may be in the top 10 coldest but that's still 30 years ago this year.  

[Roger J Smith]

6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

It would seem that for all the excitement our warm start means the first third and first half probably won't be especially notable.

Are we at least looking at the coolest opening 1st-10th and 1st-15th since 2012.

Here are all the daily CET running means for 10 to 15 Feb in the past 20 years (starting with 2001) 

YEAR___CET 10 _CET 11_CET 12_CET 13_CET 14_ CET 15

2001 ___ 5.1 __ 5.4 __ 5.6 __ 5.4 __ 5.3 __ 5.2

2002 ___ 8.3 __ 8.4 __ 8.6 __ 8.5 __ 8.2 __ 8.0

2003 ___ 4.0 __ 4.1 __ 4.1 __ 3.9 __ 3.6 __ 3.4

2004 ___ 8.2 __ 8.1 __ 8.2 __ 8.2 __ 8.0 __ 7.9

2005 ___ 6.5 __ 6.6 __ 6.6 __ 6.4 __ 6.2 __ 6.1

2006 ___ 2.6 __ 2.5 __ 2.7 __ 3.1 __ 3.5 __ 3.8

2007 ___ 2.5 __ 2.8 __ 3.2 __ 3.5 __ 3.8 __ 4.0

2008 ___ 6.1 __ 6.1 __ 6.2 __ 6.1 __ 5.9 __ 5.8

2009 ___ 0.5 __ 0.7 __ 0.8 __ 0.9 __ 1.0 __ 1.2

2010 ___ 3.1 __ 2.8 __ 2.8 __ 2.7 __ 2.7 __ 2.6

2011 ___ 7.1 __ 7.2 __ 7.2 __ 7.2 __ 7.1 __ 6.8

2012 ___-0.8 __-1.0 __-0.9 __-0.6 __-0.2 __ 0.3

2013 ___ 3.6 __ 3.4 __ 3.2 __ 3.2 __ 3.3 __ 3.5

2014 ___ 5.6 __ 5.4 __ 5.4 __ 5.3 __ 5.3 __ 5.4

2015 ___ 2.1 __ 2.2 __ 2.3 __ 2.5 __ 2.8 __ 3.0

2016 ___ 6.8 __ 6.5 __ 6.2 __ 6.0 __ 5.8 __ 5.6

2017 ___ 4.7 __ 4.4 __ 4.2 __ 4.3 __ 4.4 __ 4.6

2018 ___ 2.8 __ 2.8 __ 2.8 __ 2.8 __ 2.8 __ 2.9

2019 ___ 4.2 __ 4.2 __ 4.3 __ 4.6 __ 4.7 __ 4.8

2020 ___ 6.8 __ 6.5 __ 6.4 __ 6.4 __ 6.3 __ 6.5

_________________________

Would be difficult for this year to get colder than 2015 at any point and should just catch 2018,

so could be third coldest since 2010, in terms of coldest days regardless of date in that interval.

Looks to be in line to rank maybe 7th coldest out of 21? That is unless cold digs in longer, if every

day 10-15 averaged zero C, then by 15th the CET would be around 2.1 C. Looks more like 2.6-2.8.

[cheeky_monkey]

sunny and cold Edmonton is at -24.6c to 8th February which -17c below normal

[damianslaw]

Stats above make interesting viewing, don't recall first half Feb 15 being particularly cold, it was a mostly NW airstream, however, think its origins were arctic Canada and do remember a number of snowy days. 

Feb 12 stands out, very anticyclonic, run of low minima.

[Frigid]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Stats above make interesting viewing, don't recall first half Feb 15 being particularly cold, it was a mostly NW airstream, however, think its origins were arctic Canada and do remember a number of snowy days. 

Feb 12 stands out, very anticyclonic, run of low minima.

Feb 12 could've been a cold month if it wasn't for that very mild end. I hope Feb 2021 doesn't take that same path.

[North-Easterly Blast]

7 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Feb 12 could've been a cold month if it wasn't for that very mild end. I hope Feb 2021 doesn't take that same path.

February 2012 did indeed have a good cold spell in the first half (although didn't bring much in the way of widespread snowfall), but was obliterated by a mild second half, so Feb 2012 really is an example of where the month's overall CET did not describe the months' temperature profile at face value.  Feb 2009 was very similar in many ways to Feb 2012, with a very cold first half (but much more in the way of snow for most places), but Feb 2009's cold spell was also obliterated by a mild second half.  Both these months could have been cold overall but both went mild in mid-month.

Regarding this current month, it is slightly different to the cold spells in Febs 2009 and 2012, as the first five days or so of this month were relatively mild with the current cold spell not getting going until about the 7th, whereas in 2009 and 2012 it was cold right from the start of February.  

Edited February 10, 2021 by North-Easterly Blast

[Frigid]

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

February 2012 did indeed have a good cold spell in the first half (although didn't bring much in the way of widespread snowfall), but was obliterated by a mild second half, so Feb 2012 really is an example of where the month's overall CET did not describe the months' temperature profile at face value.  Feb 2009 was very similar in many ways to Feb 2012, with a very cold first half (but much more in the way of snow for most places), but Feb 2009's cold spell was also obliterated by a mild second half.  Both these months could have been cold overall but both went mild in mid-month.

Seems like a cold February throughout is becoming harder to get with every promising attempt being dashed away. Even Feb 1991 cold spell didn't last all that long. We have to go back to 1986 for a proper cold Feb, 35 yrs ago!

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

Seems like a cold February throughout is becoming harder to get with every promising attempt being dashed away. Even Feb 1991 cold spell didn't last all that long. We have to go back to 1986 for a proper cold Feb, 35 yrs ago!

Well the 1.5 CET for Feb 1991 was actually well below average, and it did see a phenomenal cold spell in the first half; although the cold fizzled out after about the 20th, which is the reason that it still didn't come out as a sub zero month.  You are correct that it was 1986 when we last had persistent cold throughout February.

In actual fact January is fairing just as bad; only one significantly cold January in the last 34 years (2010), and even that became closer to average after mid-month.  We have to go back to 1979 for the last time we had a January that saw persistent cold throughout the month and was sub zero for the CET .

[summer blizzard]

Good numbers Roger, it does seem that half the battle is just avoiding the late month warm up.

[Weather-history]

February 1966 was an odd month

1st-8th: ~ 8.4C

9th-18th:  ~ 1.3C

19th-28th: ~ 7.9C

A CET of 5.7C, the cold middle third stopped it being exceptionally mild overall 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 1.9C -2.8C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

[Shillitocettwo]

On 23/01/2021 at 17:42, Shillitocettwo said:

  5.2.C and 38mm.

 

 Not particularly noteworthy on the surface. However, there will be a brutally cold snap between 10th and 17th getting below -20.C in places with the CET running not much above freezing mid month, but an insanely warm shot of air from Africa will break records and see temperatures nudging 25.C by the close of the month (think the 2019 Feb heatwave on steroids) sending the CET soaring.

Wow... -22.C in Altnahaara this morning! 

   Roll on the heatwave by end of month......

[Shillitocettwo]

10 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think summer 2004 and 1980 were pretty cold at times. July 2004 was chilly at times, I remember one day only reaching 13-15c in west London. That’s very poor for high summer.

 

  I remember starting a new job July 2004 and the office being freezing!

[Frigid]

4 minutes ago, Shillitocettwo said:

Wow... -22.C in Altnahaara this morning! 

   Roll on the heatwave by end of month......

Wow. You might be onto something here

[Optimus Prime]

8 hours ago, Frigid said:

Seems like a cold February throughout is becoming harder to get with every promising attempt being dashed away. Even Feb 1991 cold spell didn't last all that long. We have to go back to 1986 for a proper cold Feb, 35 yrs ago!

At -1.3 °C, the first half of February 1991 was the coldest since 1917, with 1917 being the coldest of the 20th century (-1.9 °C). Just slightly colder than 1947 (-1.2 °C).

But it isn't true that the cold didn't last long in 1991. The last week of January averaged just 0.9 °C. from the 22nd January - 20th February all of the daily means were well below average and it wasn't until the 21st the milder air really made an impact.

The remaining 8 days of February that year averaged 6.4 °C.

[damianslaw]

Current synoptics very Feb 1986.

[Don]

31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Current synoptics very Feb 1986.

If this morning's model runs are to be believed, that will change very soon with an early taste of spring next week and not even sure if February will be below average?  However, given how volatile they have been lately, I don't think it's a done deal?

[Summer Sun]

3.2c to the 10th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 3.2c on the 1st & 10th

[damianslaw]

0.4 degree drop yesterday, probably a 0.5 degree drop next reading..

[Frigid]

CET hasn’t updated today. Still stuck at 3.6 for some reason.

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

CET hasn’t updated today. Still stuck at 3.6 for some reason.

Someone has posted 3.2 degrees.