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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
On 09/02/2021 at 00:09, Relativistic said:

Yes Don, I'd say anything below 5C is still possible. February 2012 was sub-zero until around the 12th, and that ended up at 3.8C.

Even this very cautious statement turned out to be wrong, albeit only just.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Snowray ... Yes, so far so good, but will make the scoring official on the 5th because they do adjust the tracker value on that date, and with so many Feb forecasts close together, the matter is probably not yet settled completely, Feb1991Blizzard has a chance to overtake. Just to let you know. If they adjust up from 78 mm, his forecast could get a higher score and yours a lower score, if the adjustment is more than tiny (he's at 85 mm 2nd entry 16th place, you're at 72.5 mm, 11th scoring level, adjusted to 10th rank because of a late penalty to 10th scoring interval -- it's all rather close at this point, check the tables on the 5th). 

Ok thanks Roger for explaining that.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

That cold spell's demise fooled even the supercomputers which wanted to prolong it through all of a second week, it ended up fading out rather quickly especially in the CET zone. In the grand scheme of things, it's probably a blessing to avoid a prolonged wintry spell given the situation with health and vaccinations. There were probably weather weenies in Texas who were overjoyed by their good fortune then had to pay the price of the dislocation caused by such unusual temperatures (for them). 

I think the bell sounded when that huge high developed over the east Siberian polar sea and started to push towards North America (around the 10th-12th), had that been all heading for European Russia then it would have surely turned into an epic month. Some of it in fact did split off and try to reinforce the first high, but the general result was just to sink the first high into Germany, once that happened the Atlantic was able to resume normal operations. And the Gulf of Mexico storm caused by the North American cold wave was too far south to track into west Greenland sector as often happens when parallel cold waves hit the two continents. (1855 and 1895 are also among the coldest on record in eastern N America). The pattern this winter has been quite odd, the severe cold over the plains states never made it to the east coast of the U.S., except in very modified form. Anomalies were around -4 C for Chicago and -1 C deg for the eastern cities, at one point it was running -7 / -2. Some of the coldest days in Texas came in around 20-25 C deg below their normal values. (note that's 36-45, not 68-77 F deg since we're talking anomalies not actuals).

With the epic snowstorms in Madrid, Athens and Texas, this will be remembered as a winter of far-reaching wintry outbreaks that overshot some areas to cause havoc where winter seldom bites. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
21 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Even this very cautious statement turned out to be wrong, albeit only just.

I know and I thought I was being cautious when I made my 3.2C guess for February!

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
On 12/02/2021 at 14:00, Timmytour said:

I'm not sure the cold spell of this past week has quite lived up to the hype in terms of the depth of cold, let alone the depth of snow! It has not really impacted as much upon the first few mild days as I imagined many thought it might, and now looks as if it won't hang around to maintain the downward trend.  I can't see the CET falling below 2C before it starts rising again.  I imagine, looking through the guesses, there will be some regretting late decisions to revise downwards.

For my part I've gone from thinking my guess of 4.5C made 10 days before the start of the month was going to be way out as "the Big Freeze" loomed to now thinking I could have done with tacking on a few more points to it!

I don't see the month playing out from here to a mild end all the way, but I think it will get springlike at times  and while I can imagine a bout or two more of continental influence, I don't really see there will be the depth of cold attached to them to make a dramatic difference to what I think will end up being an average CET month.



 

 

21 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Even this very cautious statement turned out to be wrong, albeit only just.

I know what you mean......even my early attempt at reverse psychology failed.....or was too successful!  

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The official numbers show that the second half (15th to end including leap years) of Feb 2021 ranks fourth in the daily data era (1772 to 2021), this is the top ten now: 

1. 2019 ___ 8.81 _____________ 7. 1878 ___ 7.94

2. 1926 ___ 8.39 _____________ 8. 1998 ___ 7.90

3. 1846 ___ 8.34 _____________ 9. 1794 ___ 7.87 

4. 2021 ___ 8.16 ____________ 10. 1876 ___ 7.79 (7.84 16-29)

5. 1912 ___ 8.09 (8.29 16-29)__11. 2017 ___ 7.78

5. 1779 ___ 7.99 ____________ 12. 2007 ___ 7.76

You might have expected 1990 to show up in this list, some lower values at either end of the second half reduced it to 13th warmest 7.68,  then 2012 average was 7.55 for 15th place after 1945 with 7.57 in 14th). If you prefer to take the last fourteen days of leap year Febs then 1912 moves past 2021 into fourth place (from fifth as shown). 2012 moves up one place also at 7.62, while 1876 stays 10th regardless of which interval is taken. 

Several weeks (seven day intervals ending on 21st, 22nd, 24th) ranked second warmest, behind 1998, 2017 and 1990 in each case. These weeks averaged 8.86, 8.84 and 9.21 and lost out to 8.70 (98), 9.01 (17) and 9.53 (90). The value on the 23rd of 9.04 fell to fourth, and the highest weekly average 19-25 Feb of 9.27 was third behind 1990 (9.67) and 2019 (9.33). 

By comparison, the coldest seven-day interval was 7th-13th at -0.50, which for that particular interval was well out of the coldest three (1895 -5.97, 1855 -3.79 and 1816 -3.29). Modern winters can produce top three cold weeks, three weekly intervals in the late Feb early Mar 2018 spell rank second coldest (those ending 2, 3 and 4 March), and late 2010 managed ten firsts (weeks ending 30 Nov to 4 Dec, and 22 to 26 Dec, all won out over all earlier averages). Also weeks ending 29 Mar to 1 Apr 2013 finished second to 1785

This is where the weekly top three warm and cold weeks can be viewed: 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/73431-daily-cet-average-values-1772-2011/page/4/#comments

 

Meanwhile, looking once again at the remarkable warming in Feb 2021, the difference from first half (2.09) to second (8.16) was 6.07 and this ranks 9th largest with most of the larger ones being cases of more extreme cold moderating to milder than average, the largest increases of 7.8 were in 1799 and 2012, but with the exception of 2012 and 1876 in the list below, the other mild second halves listed earlier have considerably smaller increases from the first half. There was no increase at all for 1779.

Here's the top ten of Feb first to second half increases (ties broken by second decimal values not shown) ...

 1. 1799 7.8 (-1.1 to 6.7)

 2. 2012 7.8 (-0.2 to 7.6)

 3. 1773 6.8 (-0.8 to 6.0)

 4. 1900 6.6 (-0.7 to 5.9)

 5. 1803 6.4 (0.2 to 6.6)

 6. 2009 6.2 (1.0 to 7.2)

 7. 1876 6.1 (1.7 to 7.8)

 8. 1917 6.1 (-2.2 to 4.0)*

 9. 2021 6.1 (2.1 to 8.2)

10. 1991 6.1 (-1.5 to 4.6)

______________________________________

* discrepancy caused by rounding from two decimals

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Thanks, very interesting. February 2012 seems to be the exact modern equivalent of February 1799, with the same level of warming but whose first- and second-half values are shifted by 0.9C.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The EWP table value has come in a bit higher than the tracker at 79.3 mm. Pretty sure this means a switch in the top two positions annually (sorry about that, snowray) and giving Feb1991Blizzard the lead, since there were quite a few closely bunched forecasts around that range and the scoring differential was less than a three-rank transfer. Because of the number of small changes this will require in the excel file, it may be close to mid-day before I can offer that and some precise scoring numbers. Stay tuned. 

My impression from looking at the 00z GFS to the bitter end was that a long spell of cool, unsettled weather lies ahead, there hasn't been much recorded yet for the EWP (4 mm to 3rd, probably same for 4th) but the outlook is for about 25-30 mm by 15th and 50 mm by 21st. The same model run looks rather cool and unsettled for two weeks after this weekend, so would speculate only a slow rise ahead for the CET at least to the 21st, ending up around 5.0 to 5.5 by then. 

Back in a while with some final EWP scoring data. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
45 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

7th wettest winter on record for England and Wales, that sneaked up under the radar.

 

Scoring the contest I noted that Jan 2021 had been revised from the earlier 144.2 to 147.3 mm, which moved it from 12th to 9th place. This wouldn't have affected contest scoring much even if I applied it, but the policy is to go with the first table value (a lot of fiddly work to revise all scoring two or three times). Dec 2020 was not changed by as much. With any sort of really wet February that 7th wettest might have been closer to 2nd place 1914-1915 which is 37.3 mm higher than 2020-21. It would have needed a record amount to catch 2013-14 which was another 32.5 mm ahead of second or 69.8 ahead of this past winter. Back to my (re-)scoring tasks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Updated EWP scoring report

The revision from 78 mm (tracker, 2nd) to 79.3 mm (table posted value) has resulted in some changes to the previously posted scoring (which has been removed from the post for edit here).

Only forecasters with 2/3 or 3/3 contests entered are eligible for a ranking in mean error (this will now always run within 2 of total contests to end of year).

Ranking for points is based on total for any or all of three contests entered.

The entire field scoring will be made available in the excel file later today, scoring is complete but file needs re-ordering. 

In the Feb scoring below, numbers before various forecasts are order of entry (deduction 0.10) and late one day if a second number appears (deduction 0.30). Where the only deduction is late one day, the notation is ( 1,1 ). No points deducted for first entry. The late penalties can result in order not matching the order of errors, scores are calculated from scoring intervals but these only drop 0.15 on average, so a late penalty can be equivalent to dropping two ranks. For example, snowray in 15th had the 16th scoring interval minus deductions, while Cymro in t-16th had the 15th scoring interval minus deductions including the late penalty to tie with Weather26 in the 17th scoring interval.

 Max possible scoring is 10.00 monthly and 30.00 annual/seasonal to date. 

** beside forecaster name indicates 2/3 contests entered. 

FEB 2021 SCORING _____________________________________ ANNUAL CONTEST and WINTER SEASONAL scoring

Rank _ Forecaster ________ Fcst __ Err __ Pts ____________Rank _ Forecaster ________ Points __ Mean error (rank) __

 

_ 01 __ DiagonalRedLine __ 80.0 __ +0.7 __10.00 _________01 __ Feb1991Blizzard ____24.19 __ 41.70 mm (8) ______

_ 02 __ The PIT ________ (2)_80.0 __ +0.7 __ 9.90 __________02 __ snowray ____________ 23.70 __ 40.07 mm (7) ______

_ 03 __ Leo97t _________(3)_80.0 __ +0.7 __ 9.80 __________03 __ Don _________________ 22.13 __ 42.57 mm (9) ______

_ 04 __ sundog ________ (4)_80.0 __ +0.7 __ 9.70 __________04 __ virtualsphere _______ 22.12 __ 38.57 mm (6) ______

_ 05 __ Dog Toffee ________ 81.1 __ +1.8 __ 9.38 __________05 __ bobd29 _____________ 21.56 __ 47.03 mm (19) _____

_ 06 __ February1978 _____ 77.0 __ -2.3 __ 9.24 __________ 06 __ Blast from the Past__21.25 __ 44.70 mm (14) _____

_ 07 __ cawsand __________ 83.0 __ +3.7 __ 9.09 __________07 __ Relativistic __________ 20.57 __ 38.03 mm (4) ______

_ 08 __ Paul T _____________ 75.0 __ --4.3 __ 8.94 __________08 __ Jeff C _______________ 20.44 __ 44.03 mm (12) _____

_ 09 __ Don ___________ (2)_ 75.0 __ --4.3 __ 8.84 __________09 __ The PIT _____________ 19.68 __ 49.70 mm (t24) ____

_ 10 __ Nigerian Prince (3)_ 75.0 __ --4.3 __ 8.74 __________10 __ Godber1 ____________ 19.44 __ 48.37 mm (22) _____

_ 11 __ Bobd29 ____________85.0 __ +5.7 __ 8.49 __________11 __ February1978 _______ 18.85 __ 50.57 mm (27) _____

_ 12 __ Feb1991Blizzard_(2) 85.0__ +5.7 __ 8.39 __________12 __ Stationary Front _____18.69 __ 49.70 mm (t24) ____

_ 13 __ J10 ______________(3)_85.0__ +5.7 __ 8.29 __________13 __ davehsug ____________18.59 __ 46.23 mm (16) _____

_ 14 __ Blast from the Past (4,1)_85.0__ +6.1 __ 7.89 __________14 __ SteveB ______________ 18.15 __ 43.90 mm (10) ______

_ 15 __ snowray ___________72.5 __ --6.8 __ 7.74 __________15 __ moffat _______________ 17.88 __ 37.03 mm (3) ____

t16 __ Cymro ______ (1,1) __ 73.0__ --6.3 __ 7.59 __________16 __ Federico _____________ 17.84 __ 47.57 mm (21) _____

t16 __ Weather26 _________ 72.0__ --7.3 __ 7.59 __________17 __ summer18 ___________17.62 __ 49.03 mm (23) ____

_ 18 __ Kirkcaldy Weather _ 70.8__ --8.5 __ 7.30 __________18 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 17.54 __ 51.03 mm (29) _____

_ 19 __ Let It Snow ! __ (2,1)_72.0__ --7.3 __ 7.19 __________19 __ Midlands Ice Age _____17.48 __ 47.37 mm (20) ____

_ 20 __ stewfox ____________ 88.0__ +8.7 __ 7.13 __________20 __ shillitocettwo ________17.01 __ 46.57 mm (17) ____

_ 21 __ Yorkshire Pudding_(2)_88.0__ +8.7 __ 7.03 __________21 __ Polar Gael ___________ 16.80 __ 36.27 mm (2) _____

_ 22 __ Stationary Front (3)_88.0__ +8.7 __ 6.93 __________22 __ Reef _________________16.61 __ 46.03 mm (15) __

_ 23 __ virtualsphere ______ 70.0__ --9.3 __ 6.55 __________23 __ stewfox _____________ 16.59 __ 54.03 mm (t33) __

_ 24 __ Godber1 ____ (4,1) _ 88.0__ +8.7 __ 6.53 __________24 __ Cymro** ____________ 16.17 __ 26.75 mm (1) _____ 

_ 25 __ Frigid ___________(2)_70.0__ --9.3 __ 6.45 __________25 __ Sleety _______________ 15.72 __ 44.37 mm (13) ___

_ 26 __ davehsug ______ (3)_ 70.0__ --9.3 __ 6.35 _________ 26 __Booferking __________15.36 __ 52.90 mm (31) ___

_ 27 __ SteveB _____________ 69.0__--10.3__ 6.12 _________ 27 __ Dog Toffee __________ 15.28 __ 56.90 mm (39) ___

_ 28 __ noname_weather __ 90.0__ +10.7__ 5.97 _________28 __ noname_weather ___ 15.16 __ 54.03 mm (t33) __

_ 29 __ Joneseye ___________ 68.0__--11.3__ 5.68 _________ 29 __J10 __________________ 14.98 __ 56.37 mm (t37) __

 

_ 30 __ seaside60 _______(2)_68.0__--11.3__ 5.58 _________ 30 __ DR(S)NO ____________ 14.82 __ 49.70 mm (t24) __

_ 31 __ Relativistic ___ (2, 1) _90.0__ +10.7__5.57 _________ 31 __ Born From the Void _ 14.77 __ 50.90 mm (28) __

_ 32 __ windysun 1 _________92.0__ +12.7__5,25 _________ 32 __ 2010cold ____________ 14.67 __ 53.73 mm (32) __

_ 33 __ Booferking _________ 66.0__--13.3__ 5.10 _________ 33 __ Mulzy _______________ 13.29 __ 55.23 mm (t35) __

_ 34 __ Sky Full _______(1, 1)_ 91.0__ +11.7__5.09 _________ 34 __ Weather26 __________ 13.19 __ 58.77 mm (43) __

_ 35 __ BARRY ______________93.0__ +13.7__4.96 __________35 __ seaside60 ___________ 12.91 __ 57.90 mm (t41)__

_ 36 __ Pegg24 _____________ 65.0__--14.3__ 4.82 _________ 36 __ Let it Snow ! _________ 12.67 __ 62.23 mm (47) __

_ 37 __ 2010cold ___________ 93.7__ +14.4__ 4.67 _________ 37 __ jonboy _______________12.54 __ 55.23 mm (t35)__

_ 38 __ Jeff C _______________ 95.0__ +15.7__ 4.52 _________ 38 __ cawsand** __________ 12.53 __ 43.45 mm (11) __

_ 39 __ moffat __________ (2)_95.0__ +15.7__ 4.42 _________ 39 __ pegg24 ______________ 12.51 __ 58.90 mm (44) __

_ 40 __ Summer18 ______ (3)_95.0__ +15.7__ 4.32 _________40 __ Emmett Garland _____12.48 __ 57.90 mm (t41)__

___________________________________________________________________________________

The average error stat is somewhat uncorrelated with points because of larger errors in the spread for January.

None of the above missed January to get a lower average that way, Cymro is the only top 30 points earner to have

missed a month. The top 25 error ranks not shown in the table include Joneseye (5th),  and Paul T (16th). These

both played two of three months and did not quite reach 40th place in total points.

 

41-50 Joneseye, sundog, DAVID SNOW, General Cluster, Summer Blizzard, DiagonalRedLine, Moorlander tied Leo97t,

... I RemAtl 252,  PaulT.

_ watch for the full scoring in excel file format later today or on the 6th _ 

Note that consensus is currently ranked 8.9 (19.71 points) behind the two normals

1991-2020 is ranked 2nd (1.3) at 24.04 between first and second place among all forecasters, and

1981-2010 is ranked 6.8th at 20.69 points. Decimal ranks for these non-contest ranked metrics indicate

spacing between forecaster ranks. E.g., 4.9th is just ahead of 5th. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Best combined forecasts for Feb 2021

1 __ DiagonalRedLine___ 11th CET + 1st EWP = 12 ranking points (4.0 C, 80 mm)

2 __ cawsand ___________ 6th CET + 7th EWP = 13 ranking points (4.4 C, 83 mm)

3 __ bobd29 ____________ 3rd CET +11th EWP = 14 ranking points (4.6 C, 85 mm)

4 __ weather26 _________ 8th CET + 16th EWP = 24 ranking points (6.0 C, 72 mm)

5 __ Nigerian Prince ____26th CET + 5th EWP = 31 ranking points (3.6 C, 75 mm)

The 1991-2020 average also did well with 3rd CET + 15th EWP (4.9, 72.4 mm)

... only the top three combined forecasts improved on the average from most recent 30 years.

This marks only the second time that a first ranked EWP forecast has also been best combined.

By contrast, 12 of the 39 awards to date have included a first ranked CET forecast. 

That is odd, especially because a first ranked CET forecast is not always eligible (sometimes it goes

to a non-EWP forecaster) whereas the top ranked EWP forecaster (and every EWP forecaster in the

past three years) has made a CET forecast. An asterisk might be when I allowed J10 in during the three

hour "grace period" on day four and he disqualified himself in the CET. So that's the one time we ever

had an EWP forecast without a CET forecast to go with it (although we knew what it was). 

=============================================================

The scoring excel file is now edited, it contains all scoring info including "all-time scoring" which tracks all the scores you ever had,

and our current leader is Don at 246.13 (for 39) followed by Reef with 240.30. Find out where you rank on that list. 

(you have to keep scrolling right to reach columns EQ to FC for this information). The file should open in the upper left corner from where you can follow navigation aids in the prominent yellow strip in row 16. The seasonal ranks are the same as the annual ranks but they are now preserved in the seasonal section. 

 

 

 

EWP2020_21_Feb.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Combined CET and EWP Contest Ranks __ Winter 2020-21

With three months played in the 2020-21 contest year, and the winter season in the books, these are the combined rankings of all active players in the contests.

Those who only enter the CET contest are found in this table at their CET ranking position. Those who play both contests are found at the average of their two ranks as shown. At  this point in the contest year, both contests have only one table, the CET excludes forecasters who miss three contests from the main ranking table so that is not yet in play. The EWP ranks are based on total points regardless of how many contests entered, and the points structure this year has been altered to provide a greater resemblance to the CET scoring system. The number beside forecaster names refers to the number of forecast contests entered. For a few, this number is different for the two contests. The first of the two numbers is for CET contests entered. One number means that a forecaster has entered both contests the same number of times. 

Somewhat unlike previous years in this combined ranking, there's quite a scatter with little correlation between rankings. That may reflect the frequent changes of regime that have been challenging all of us this past winter. Only three forecasters entered fewer EWP than CET (excluding those who never played EWP). They were Duncan McAlister, Nigerian Prince and Steve Murr; as is my usual practice, when this happens I show the EWP in brackets and don't average it in. Lettucing Gutted also missed one EWP but I found that his EWP rank improved his average so I allowed that one. 

 

Rank ____ CET __ EWP __ Avg ____ FORECASTER ____________ Rank ___ CET __ EWP __ Avg ____ FORECASTER __

_ 01 _____ 05 ____ 05 ____ 05.0 ___ bobd29 (3) _______________t59 _____ 29 ____ 85 ____ 57.0 ___ Mark Neal (1) ______

_t02 _____ 03 ____ 17 ____ 10.0 ___ Summer18 (3) ___________ t59 _____ 63 ____ 51 ____ 57.0 ___ Earthshine (3) _____

_t02 _____ 19 ____ 01 ____ 10.0 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (3) ______t59_____ 95 ____ 19 ____ 57.0 ___ Midlands Ice Age (3) _

_t04 _____ 20 ____ 08 ____ 14.0 ___ JeffC (3) __________________t62 _____ 68 ____ 49 ____ 58.5 ___ I Rem Atl 252 (3) ___

_t04 _____ 25 ____ 03 ____ 14.0 ___ Don (3) __________________t62 _____ 81 ____ 36 ____ 58.5 ___ Let It Snow! (3) _____

_ 06 _____ 01 ____ 28 ____ 29.0 ___ nonameweather (3) _____t64 _____ 59 ____(75)____ 59.0 ___ Duncan McAlister (3, 1) _

_ 07 _____ 08 ____ 22 ____ 15.0 ___ Reef (3) __________________t64 _____ 71 ____t47 ____ 59.0 ___ Moorlander (3) _____

_ 08 _____ 15 ____ ---- ____ 15.0 ___ damianslaw (3,0) ________ 66 _____ 23 ____ 96 ____ 59.5 ___ B87 (1) ______________ 

_ 09 _____ 16 ____ ---- ____ 16.0 ___Man Without Beard (3,0) _67 _____ 49 ____ 71 ____ 60.0 ___ Frigid (2) ____________

_ 10_____ 07 ____ 29 ____ 18.0 ___ J10 (3) ____________________ 68 _____ 84 ____ 37 ____ 60.5 ___ jonboy (3) ___________

_t11 _____ 11 ____ 30 ____ 20.5 ___ DR(S)NO (3) ______________t69 _____46 ____ 76 ____ 61.0 ___prolongedSnowLover (3) 

_t11 _____ 21 ____ 20 ____ 20.5 ___ shillitocettwo (3) _________ t69 _____ 57 ____ 65 ____ 61.0 ___ Roger J Smith (3) ____

_ 13 _____ 10 ____ 32 ____ 21.0 ___ 2010cold (3) _____________ t69 _____ 58 ____ 64 ____ 61.0 ____ Norrance (2) _______

_ 14  _____ 04 ____ 39 ____ 21.5 ___ Pegg24 (3) _______________t69 _____ 79 ____ 43 ____ 61.0 ____ DAVID SNOW (3) ___

_ 15 _____ 31 ____ 14 ____ 22.5 ___ Steve B (3) _______________ 73 _____ 48 ____ 77 ____ 62.5 ___ matt 111 (1) _________ 

_ 16  _____ 30 ____ 16 ____ 23.0 ___ Federico (3) _____________t74 _____ 86 ____ 40 ____ 63.0 ___ Emmett Garland (3) _ 

_ 17 _____ 34 ____ 13 ____ 23.5 ___ davehsug (3) _____________t74_____102 ____ 24 ____ 63.0 ___ cymro (2) _____________

_ 18 _____ 27 ____ 23 ____ 25.0 ___ stewfox (3) _______________ 76 _____103 ____ 25 ____ 64.0 ___ Sleety (3) ____________

_ 19 _____ 50 ____ 02 ____ 26.0 ___ snowray (3) ______________ t77 _____45 ____ 86 ____ 65.5 ___ Northeast Blizzard (1)

_t20 _____ 12 ____ 45 ____ 28.5 ___ summer blizzard (3) ______t77 _____74 ____ 57 ____ 65.5 ___ AWD (1) ____________

_t20 _____ 13 ____ 44 ____ 28.5 ___ General Cluster (3) _______ 79 _____ 70 ____ 67 ____ 68.5 ___ Saint Coolio (1) _____

_ 22 _____ 28 ____ ---- ____ 28.0 ___Summer Sun (3, 0) ________ 80 _____ 69 ____ ----____ 69.0 ___ Shuggee (1) ________

_ 23 _____ 53 ____ 07 ____ 30.0 ___ Relativistic (3) _____________t81 _____ 61 ____ 78 ____ 69.5 ___ Great Plum (1) ____

_ 24 _____ 24 ____ 38 ____ 31.0 ___ cawsand (2) _______________t81 _____ 87 ____ 52 ____ 69.5 ___ john88b (1) ________

_ 25 _____ 55 ____ 09 ____ 32.0 ___ The PIT (3) _________________ 83 _____44 ____ 97 ____ 70.5 ___ hotspur62 (1) _______

_ 26 _____ 32 ____ 33 ____ 32.5 ___ Mulzy (3) __________________  84 _____89 ____ 53 ____ 71.0 ___ coldest winter (1) ___

_t27 _____ 33 ____ ---- ____ 33.0 ___Dancerwithwings (3,0) _____t85 _____60 ____ 84 ____ 72.0 ___ BARRY (1) ___________ 

_t27 _____ 35 ____ 31 ____ 33.0 ___ Born From the Void (3) ____ t85 ____ 72 ____ ----____ 72.0 ____ Kentish Man (3, 0) __

_ 29 _____ 56 ____ 11 ____ 33.5 ___ February1978 (3) __________t87 _____ 77 ____ 73 ____ 75.0 ___ syed2878 (3) __________ 

_ 30 _____ 62 ____ 06 ____ 34.0 ___ Blast From the Past (3) ____t87 _____100 ____ 50 ____ 75.0 ____ Paul T (2) ____________

_t31 _____ 54 ____ 15 ____ 34.5 ___ moffat (3) __________________89 _____ 97 ____ 54 ____ 75.5 ____ fozfoster (1) __________

_t31 _____ 22 ____t47 ____ 34.5 ___ Leo97t (3) _________________ 90 _____ 80 ____ 74 ____ 77.0 ____ Neil N (3) _____________

_t31 _____ 51 ____ 18 ____ 34.5 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather (3) ______t91 _____75 ____ 80 ____ 77.5 ____ S4lancia (1) ____________

_ 34 _____ 36 ____ 34 ____ 35.0 ___ Weather26 (3) ______________t91 _____98 ____ 59 ____ 78.5 ____ swebby (1) _____________

_ 35 _____ 09 ____ 63 ____ 36.0 ___ Mr Maunder (3) ____________ 93 _____105 ____ 55 ____ 80.0 ____ Lettucing Gutted (3,2) __

_ 36 _____ 17 ____ 56 ____ 36.5 ___ Summer Shower (1) ________ 94 _____101 ____ 62 ____ 81.5 ____ --uksnow-- (1) ______

_ 37 _____ 37 ____ ---- ____37.0 ___ qwertyk (1, 0) _______________t95 _____ 82 ____ 82 ____ 82.0 ____ daniel* (3) _________

_ 38 _____ 14 ____ 61 ____ 37.5 ___ Timmytour (3) ______________t95 _____ 96 ____ 68 ____ 82.0 ____ Walsall Wood Snow (3) _

_ 39 _____ 39 ____ ---- ____39.0 ___ Froze were the Days (3,0)____ 97 _____73 ____ 92 ____ 82.5 ____ CheesepuffScott (1) ____

_ 40 _____ 40 ____ ---- ____40.0 ___ Mark Bayley (2, 0) ___________ 98 _____ 94 ____ 72 ____ 83.0 ____ Leon1 (1) ______________

_ 41 _____ 02 ____ 79 ____ 40.5 ___ weather-history (3) __________99 _____ 88 ____ 88 ____ 88.0 ___ stratty (1) ______________

_ 42 _____ 41 ____ ---- ____41.0 ___ Quicksilver1989 (3, 0) _______100 ____108 ____ 70 ____ 89.0 ___ Yorkshire Pudding (1) __

_ 43 _____ 42 ____ ----____ 42.0 ___ Typhoon John (3, 0) _________ 101 _____99 ____ 81 ____ 90.0 ___ Windysun 1 (1) ________

_t44 _____ 43 ____(58) ____43.0 ___ Nigerian Prince (2, 1) _______t102 _____ 91 ___(94) ___ 91.0 ___ Steve Murr (2, 1) ________

_t44 _____ 65 ____ 21 ____ 43.0 ___ Polar Gael (3) _______________t102 _____ 93 ___ 89 ____ 91.0 ___ karlos1983 (1) _________

_t44 _____ 76 ____ 10 ____ 43.0 ___ Godber1 (3) _________________t104 _____90 ___ 95 ____ 92.5 ___ Captain Shortwave (2) __

_ 47 _____ 18 ____ 69 ____ 43.5 ___ Downburst (1) _______________t104 _____92 ___ 93 ____ 92.5 ___ TomSE12 (1) ___________

_t48 _____ 47 ____ 42 ____ 44.5 ___ sundog (3) ___________________106 ____104 ___ 83 ____ 93.5 ___ Sky Full (1) ____________

_t48 _____ 85 ____ 04 ____ 44.5 ___ virtualsphere (3) _____________107 ____106 ___ 90 ____ 98.0 ___ Radiating Dendrite (1) ___

_ 50 _____ 78 ____ 12 ____ 45.0 ___ Stationary Front (3) __________ 108 ____107 ___ 91 ____ 99.0 ___ seabreeze86 (1) ________

_ 51 _____ 26 ____ 66 ____ 46.0 ___ Philglossop (1) _______________ 109 ____109 ___ 99 ___ 104.0 ___ Deep Snow Please (1) _

_t52 _____ 06 ____ 87 ____ 46.5 ___ stargazer (3)  _________________110 ____110 ___ 98 ___ 104.0 ___ Thundershine (1) __

_t52 _____ 66 ____ 27 ____ 46.5 ___ Dog Toffee (3) ________________ 111 _____

_t54 _____ 38 ____ 60 ____ 49.0 ___ Surprised Weather (1) ________ 112 _____

_t54 _____ 52 ____ 46 ____ 49.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine (3) __________ 113 _____

_ 56 _____ 64 ____ 35 ____ 49.5 ___ seaside60 (3) _________________ 114 ______ 

_ 57 _____ 67 ____ 41 ____ 54.0 ___ Joneseye (2) __________________ 115 _____

_ 58 _____ 83 ____ 26 ____ 54.5 ___ Booferking (3) ________________ 116 _____

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

 

 


 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I think if the last 9 days of February had been replaced with the first 9 days of March, the mean CET for February would have ended up below 4C

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