February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, it was never likely to be as cold as 1986 due to the milder start.  However, when the cold spell arrived it did look like it could 'lock in' and be a cold or very cold month.  This month has indeed been similar to February 2009 and 2012 in some ways, but unlike 2021, they too were cold from the start and ended up being close to average overall, rather than mild.

What I meant to say was that this February the cold disappeared abruptly in mid-month just the same as it did in 2009 and 2012 and ruined the chance of a cold month.  I mean to say that this month could have been cold overall, had the relatively short sharp cold spell that we had lasted longer, like some computer models were predicting around the end of the first week of this month, yet unfortunately it all went downhill significantly after only a week of cold weather and the month will still end up warmer than average overall.

Edited February 27, 2021 by North-Easterly Blast

[Don]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What I meant to say was that this February the cold disappeared abruptly in mid-month just the same as it did in 2009 and 2012 and ruined the chance of a cold month.  I mean to say that this month could have been cold overall, had the relatively short sharp cold spell that we had lasted longer, like some computer models were predicting around the end of the first week of this month, yet unfortunately it all went downhill significantly after only a week of cold weather and the month will still end up warmer than average overall.

I totally understand what you mean about how the cold disappeared, in fact almost to the day it did in 2009 and 2012!  Indeed, at the end of the first week of the month, some of the models looked truly epic, yet within a day or two they had backtracked big time!

[Roger J Smith]

The provisional CET was 5.3 to 27th, 1.5 above 61-90. I think that matches earlier peaks before the cold spell.

Can report that the EWP tracker will very likely end up at 78 mm tomorrow with that value for 27th, and zero rainfall shown across the grid on 28th.

Once confirmed, I will let you know the updated scoring for EWP. 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The February CET came in at 5.1C:

0.2C above the 91-20 average
1.3C above the 61-90 average
1.1C above the 20th century average
1.1C above the 19th century average

Compared with 1991-2020 average, 17 days were above, 10 days below and 1 day equal to the average.
Five days were in the top 10 warmest, but no absolute warm or cold records occurred (although the 24th just 0.1C shy of equaling a warm record).

 

EDIT: We also nabbed a record high minimum on the 21st, with 8.5C. This beats the previous 8.4C record from 1903.

Edited March 1, 2021 by BornFromTheVoid

[North-Easterly Blast]

The CET for February 2021 is confirmed as 5.12*C, or 5.1 rounded down.  It is actually the first 5.0s finish for the February CET since 2008, which is quite a remarkable statistic that we have had five very mild 6+ February CETs since then and not one in the 5s, and gone since 2008 without one in the 5s.  Certainly Feb 2021 could have been a cold month had the cold spell lasted longer and not fizzled out abruptly into the very mild spell that we had after mid-month.

[Don]

I thought there would have been more of a downward adjustment than that.  A very disappointing month.....

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 5.1c February 2021 shares the same mean CET with February's:

1862

1894

1899

1910

1938

[Froze were the Days]

February just proves how difficult it is now to get a 'cold' month...January before showed more continuous chilly/cold conditions throughout the month particularly the further north you went with a CET of 3.1c but even that wasn't that noteworthy.

I mentioned the last time we had a -1c anomaly winter month on the 1961-90 series was over a decade ago and that wait goes on and the main problem in my mind come early winter is there is not enough cold in place, the continent isn't cold enough, sst's are too warm (around our coast and elsewhere) all the ingredients to stop frigid months.

Overall the winter 2020/21 was probably better overall for cold than expected coming into the season, don't forget the fear was for La Nina to become to strong which in effect didn't happen and the month most amateur forecasters wrote off (January) for cold actually was the coldest, remember Brain Gaze of TWO suggested the winter could be 'bookended' with cold shots...way off the mark!

[Timmytour]

February was 2C warmer than January.   Since 1800  there is around a 24% frequency of Februarys which were at least 2C greater than January.  The last thirty years have a percentage which has climbed up to 20% which  - outside of the weird 75 year period from the late 1700s  - is pretty standard fare.

A rolling 30 year record low of just 10% was reached in the late 70s and the experience of that probably colours the expectations of  quite a few on here I expect.

However it's now happened three times in the last five years which is the first time that's happened since 1883 and perhaps indicative that we are heading for rolling 30 years peak frequencies not seen this side of the Second World War!

Rolling 30 year frequency of February CETs at least 2C warmer than Januarys

 

 

 

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The CET for February 2021 is confirmed as 5.12*C, or 5.1 rounded down.  It is actually the first 5.0s finish for the February CET since 2008, which is quite a remarkable statistic that we have had five very mild 6+ February CETs since then and not one in the 5s, and gone since 2008 without one in the 5s.  Certainly Feb 2021 could have been a cold month had the cold spell lasted longer and not fizzled out abruptly into the very mild spell that we had after mid-month.

You could also say it could have been a very mild month had the cold spell not happened...

It was essentially a mild month with around a week of cold weather.

[Scorcher]

Has anyone got the stats for the 2nd half of the month?

There haven't been many spells in February that have been so consistently in double figures by day that I can remember.

Obviously 2019 and 2008 stand out but 2008 had the odd colder day and some very hard frosts in the 2nd half of the month.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 27/02/2021 at 21:12, Don said:

I totally understand what you mean about how the cold disappeared, in fact almost to the day it did in 2009 and 2012!  Indeed, at the end of the first week of the month, some of the models looked truly epic, yet within a day or two they had backtracked big time!

Just shows that when members say 'models underestimate the cold block' is normally untrue, the Atlantic will find a way in, often quicker than NW members predict

[summer blizzard]

23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Just shows that when members say 'models underestimate the cold block' is normally untrue, the Atlantic will find a way in, often quicker than NW members predict

Strictly speaking the saying was correct. Remember that people in the model thread were in despair at the breakdown coming Thursday so the event would last all of five days. In the end it was the second or third attempt.

When talking about the month your correct of course but even a few of us on the cold train did reference 09 and 12 as reasons not to get too excited.

[damianslaw]

Not quite the marked adjustment expected. Another mild February, and had we not seen the level if cold we did 7-13 Feb, a very mild one would have occured. 

The wait for a notably cold February goes on. We've had a number if Februaries that have promised such fayre such as 2009, 2012 and this year to an extent but high pressure has then moved into an unfavourable location. Always a high risk game under blocked conditions, balance between cold and mild.. 

 

[Interitus]

29 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Just shows that when members say 'models underestimate the cold block' is normally untrue, the Atlantic will find a way in, often quicker than NW members predict

Breakdowns can sometimes show a tendency to be delayed with cold hanging on, but what's amusing is that when these charts appear is the common insistence is that they are wrong and the colder output is more likely, rather than the writing's on the wall.

[Scorcher]

42 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Just shows that when members say 'models underestimate the cold block' is normally untrue, the Atlantic will find a way in, often quicker than NW members predict

I totally agree, I was warning people in the model thread that there was far too much energy coming into the Atlantic for the cold to be sustained. Most were convinced that the block would hold, as you say. The fact is that the UK default weather is heavily Atlantic influenced. That and the simple fact that the Earth's rotation is west to east so of course the odds are more often that not going to favour westerlies in a 50/50 situation. 

That doesn't mean that a block can't hold out, but the odds are always against it when there is energy being injected into the Atlantic.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That doesn't mean that a block can't hold out, but the odds are always against it when there is energy being injected into the Atlantic.

With ocean temps higher these days, I guess that also gives low pressure systems more energy now?

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Don said:

With ocean temps higher these days, I guess that also gives low pressure systems more energy now?

I think your probably right, it seems to me that this has been the case for quite some time now...

[Relativistic]

The 11th February, the coldest day of the month, was the 13th coldest on record (-2.1C) -- somewhat underwhelming. The 11th February has seen a number of notably cold days in recent decades, 2012 being the most recent (-2.8C), while the two coldest on record were in the consecutive years of 1985 and 1986 (-4.0C and -4.2C, respectively).

Winding back a little further, the 11th of February 1895 was also the first of three occasions in which somewhere in the UK recorded -27.2C; the CET for that day was -3.4C.

Edited March 1, 2021 by Relativistic

[Don]

7 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Has anyone got the stats for the 2nd half of the month?

There haven't been many spells in February that have been so consistently in double figures by day that I can remember.

Obviously 2019 and 2008 stand out but 2008 had the odd colder day and some very hard frosts in the 2nd half of the month.

What about the second halves of 2009 and 2012, they must have come close?

[J10]

Excel February 21 CET.xlsx

PDF (Summary sheet)  February 21 CET.pdf

Monthly Competition

No one got it spot on this month, however both Shillitocettwo and Bobd29 were 0.1c out.

Seasonal Competition and Overall Competition

Some changes this month in the Top 3.

nonameweather 1st from 3rd,
weatherhistory 2nd from 6th and
Summer18 3rd from 2nd.

 

Edited March 1, 2021 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

(scoring post revised and moved to 5 March posting)

 

 

Edited March 5, 2021 by Roger J Smith

[Scorcher]

12 hours ago, Don said:

What about the second halves of 2009 and 2012, they must have come close?

2009 definitely wasn't as mild here- only 2 days reached double figures in the entire month at Manchester Airport. 2012 did have a mild second half but was only really from the 21st onwards that the mild weather took over.

[snowray]

Wow, looks like I won the EWP winter seasonal, that’s a bit of a shock.

[Roger J Smith]

Snowray ... Yes, so far so good, but will make the scoring official on the 5th because they do adjust the tracker value on that date, and with so many Feb forecasts close together, the matter is probably not yet settled completely, Feb1991Blizzard has a chance to overtake. Just to let you know. If they adjust up from 78 mm, his forecast could get a higher score and yours a lower score, if the adjustment is more than tiny (he's at 85 mm 2nd entry 16th place, you're at 72.5 mm, 11th scoring level, adjusted to 10th rank because of a late penalty to 10th scoring interval -- it's all rather close at this point, check the tables on the 5th).