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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 3.9C -0.8C below normal, Rainfall 93.7mm 143.7% of the monthly average

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    The official numbers show that the second half (15th to end including leap years) of Feb 2021 ranks fourth in the daily data era (1772 to 2021), this is the top ten now:  1. 2019 ___ 8.81 _______

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.  

    The February CET came in at 5.1C: 0.2C above the 91-20 average 1.3C above the 61-90 average 1.1C above the 20th century average 1.1C above the 19th century average Compared with

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Would guess we will finish 5.3 or 5.4 before corrections but those could be fairly large, so anywhere from 4.9 to 5.2 seems most likely and see my earlier post for a summary of who said what in that general vicinity (not many went that high for CET). EWP looks to be settling in around 80 mm. The southeast has probably been considerably drier than that average. 

    The change in regime must seem even more dramatic in Germany, where I notice some readings today of 20 C, in areas that had -15 overnight lows in the cold spell, as well as 10-20 cm snow cover (I presume that's all gone). 

    The same thing has happened in Texas which had winter storm conditions a week ago and yesterday highs in the mid 20s (above normal but not record highs). Where I live it's a much more subtle change, we never got all that cold with a few days around -15 (not unusual for here) and now it's in the 5-10 C range with our deep mountain snow pack slowly shrinking away more from sublimation than melting although there's a bit of runoff evident on hilly streets around us. We had 70 cms of snow at peak depth in late January and that's more like 40 cms as of today, it looks the same outside but when you look more carefully the snow depths are definitely reduced. 

    We have quite a range in different climate zones around this mountan-valley complex, down in the Columbia valley the snow pack is only 10-20 cms, up on the alpine ski slopes it is closer to 2 metres. 

    Yes I think we narrowly missed out on another notable February warm spell in the UK with the warmer air mostly going into Central Europe. The models initially showed the warmer air heading towards the UK and we ended up with just mild to very mild air.

    Looks like Germany has had a spell similar to what we experienced in February 2019.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    No daily record, just 11.1C (0.3C shy). 

    Looks like a finish of 5.3C (5.33C) is most likely before corrections.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.1c to the 24th

    1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke
    19 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    The change in regime must seem even more dramatic in Germany, where I notice some readings today of 20 C, in areas that had -15 overnight lows in the cold spell, as well as 10-20 cm snow cover (I presume that's all gone). 

    This got me thinking, what is the record month for the difference between the lowest max and highest min?  Has this month got it?

    The range this month is 41.2c (-23.0 to 18.4).

    I don't recall December 1995 having maximum above 14.2c to get it (the difference to -27.2).  Jan 1982 i don't know about and I'm sure February 1895 didn't get that mild.

    I don't think the summer months would hold the record, but I could be wrong.

    This month certainly close if not the new record holder.

    Hope this is OK in this thread!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    59 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

    This got me thinking, what is the record month for the difference between the lowest max and highest min?  Has this month got it?

    The range this month is 41.2c (-23.0 to 18.4).

    I don't recall December 1995 having maximum above 14.2c to get it (the difference to -27.2).  Jan 1982 i don't know about and I'm sure February 1895 didn't get that mild.

    I don't think the summer months would hold the record, but I could be wrong.

    This month certainly close if not the new record holder.

    Hope this is OK in this thread!

    I think a March might be the month to hold the record. 1958 I think brought very low minima below -20 degrees and warm maxima possibly. Jan 03 also brought abnormal high in Highlands as well as a low -18 degrees correct if wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

    This got me thinking, what is the record month for the difference between the lowest max and highest min?  Has this month got it?

    The range this month is 41.2c (-23.0 to 18.4).

    I don't recall December 1995 having maximum above 14.2c to get it (the difference to -27.2).  Jan 1982 i don't know about and I'm sure February 1895 didn't get that mild.

    I don't think the summer months would hold the record, but I could be wrong.

    This month certainly close if not the new record holder.

    Hope this is OK in this thread!

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    43 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.

     

    March 1965 is going to take some beating- incredible! Hard to imagine how a bigger range is possible in the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    March 1965 is going to take some beating- incredible! Hard to imagine how a bigger range is possible in the UK.

    What about March 1958 which produced a low of -23 degrees, was there any warmth as well?

    Jan 1958 brought quite a range, -19 min and 16 degree max, not on a par with this month 

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Frigid said:

    Didn't August 2020 also have quite a big range?

    Yes, 36.8C (-0.4C to 36.4C).

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    9 hours ago, Daniel* said:

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.

     

    Awesome stats. So many in the past few years (August included as others have pointed out).

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 4.1C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    13 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    What about March 1958 which produced a low of -23 degrees, was there any warmth as well?

    Jan 1958 brought quite a range, -19 min and 16 degree max, not on a par with this month 

    I just think it's going to be very hard to beat March 1965 with that maximum of 25C. Look how far ahead it is of the nearest challengers as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.2c to the 25th

    1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Can we expect the CET to remain stable now until the end of the month, as the next few days look fairly mild by day but with some chilly nights?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The EWP tracker has reached 78 mm (24th) and appears to have added nothing on the 25th so with zero predicted on the GFS we are quite possibly at our final value. At least the preliminary value, the final value comes on the 5th when a table value is revealed and it can change slightly from the tracker. Anyway, I will wait until the 2nd when the tracker has reached the 28th to give a summary of EWP scoring for both February and the winter seasonal portion of the contest year. Only slight adjustments will be needed from the version shown a few days ago. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Breached the 5 degree mark a bit quicker than I expected. Mean temps rest of the month look above average, though some colder nights, a finish of 5.5 degrees I expect, downward corrections, perhaps final mark 5.2. Comfortably above average, all that potential for a colder than average month swiped out quickly. To see a near 4 degree rise from mid month is quite something.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 4.3C, -0.5C below normal. Rainfall 93.7mm 143.7% of the monthly average

    Looks like this will be the final figure possibly get to 4.4C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    5.2c to the 26th

    1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Breached the 5 degree mark a bit quicker than I expected. Mean temps rest of the month look above average, though some colder nights, a finish of 5.5 degrees I expect, downward corrections, perhaps final mark 5.2. Comfortably above average, all that potential for a colder than average month swiped out quickly. To see a near 4 degree rise from mid month is quite something.

    Indeed, those thoughts about this February potentially rivalling 1986 seem laughable now!  However, early in the month it was definitely feasible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Breached the 5 degree mark a bit quicker than I expected. Mean temps rest of the month look above average, though some colder nights, a finish of 5.5 degrees I expect, downward corrections, perhaps final mark 5.2. Comfortably above average, all that potential for a colder than average month swiped out quickly. To see a near 4 degree rise from mid month is quite something.

    February tuning out to be the warmest month of the winter.

    Who'd've thunk that back on the first weekend of the month!!!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    Indeed, those thoughts about this February potentially rivalling 1986 seem laughable now!  However, early in the month it was definitely feasible.

    February 1986 was actually cold right from the start - February 2021 wasn't, the first five days were actually on the mild side and the cold spell this month did not fully start until the 7th, so the chance of a sub zero monthly CET was out of the question this month right from the start.  Nontheless after the first week there was the chance that this month could have been cold overall, but was ruined by the cold abruptly fizzling out mid-month, similar in many ways to Februarys 2009 and 2012.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    20 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    February 1986 was actually cold right from the start - February 2021 wasn't, the first five days were actually on the mild side and the cold spell this month did not fully start until the 7th, so the chance of a sub zero monthly CET was out of the question this month right from the start.  Nontheless after the first week there was the chance that this month could have been cold overall, but was ruined by the cold abruptly fizzling out mid-month, similar in many ways to Februarys 2009 and 2012.

    Yes, it was never likely to be as cold as 1986 due to the milder start.  However, when the cold spell arrived it did look like it could 'lock in' and be a cold or very cold month.  This month has indeed been similar to February 2009 and 2012 in some ways, but unlike 2021, they too were cold from the start and ended up being close to average overall, rather than mild.

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