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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny in Summer, Cold & Frosty in Winter, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport

    My 3.1 has gone for a Burton 

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    The official numbers show that the second half (15th to end including leap years) of Feb 2021 ranks fourth in the daily data era (1772 to 2021), this is the top ten now:  1. 2019 ___ 8.81 _______

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.  

    The February CET came in at 5.1C: 0.2C above the 91-20 average 1.3C above the 61-90 average 1.1C above the 20th century average 1.1C above the 19th century average Compared with

    Posted Images

    On 20/02/2021 at 12:09, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Latest projections and probabilities.

    Feb20Project.thumb.png.507896d4044a863545ae7995d9c2f873.png Feb20Prob.thumb.png.9a232945a2b906db5f6840bf8ac734e8.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔻 to 46% (two days ago it was 65%)
    Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 64% (two days ago it was 31%)
    Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻to 0% (two days ago it was 4%)

    GFS for the 20th to the 25th averages about 9.2C, pulling the CET up to 5.1C.

    That’ll do nicely, my 5.2.C is rolling in, even if I lost my head a bit claiming we’d see 25.C with these African winds....

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    I think this February is bit more like February 1966 than February 2009 and 2012 as this February never started cold from the off. This winter as a whole resembles 1965-66 with the cold concentrated between Christmas and mid February

     

    There are some similarities with this winter and 1965-66 (which was a moderate to strong El Nino winter I believe, unlike this year).   Although different to this winter, 1965-66 was preceded by a notably cold November (CET 4.5) with notable snowfalls at least by November standards.  1965-66 itself saw a December not far off Dec 2020 overall; although it was cold in its closing days but turned milder again early Jan, which was a fairly cold month (CET 2.9), (slightly colder overall than Jan 2021) and then there was a potent cold spell around mid-month for a fortnight with also a fair amount of snow about (more potent than any cold spell in Jan 2021) .  Feb 1966 was actually a mild month overall (CET 5.7), with a very mild first and final third. but did become colder for a time over the middle part of the month.  From the charts for Feb 1966, the month actually had a fair amount of northern blocking for most of the month, but except for a week or so around mid-month, it was not orientated favourably or not close enough to bring cold weather to Britain, so much of the time that month the UK was left in the middle of low pressure and winds mainly from the SW, so I can imagine that the UK would have been very wet.  

    I can imagine that Feb 1966 would have been a frustrating period for cold fans for much of the time, when it could have been a cold month if the northern blocking had set up favourably.

    The winter of 2020-21 is likely to come out fairly similar to 1965-66 although I think that the cold spell in mid January 1966 was more potent than any of the cold outbreaks in 2020-21.  Even so, the way that the cold spell in the second week of this month disappeared abruptly in mid-month into a very mild second half, makes this month feel very much like Februarys 2009 and 2012, and another February like those two, that could have been a cold month, had the cold spell not fizzled out abruptly into such a very mild pattern.

    Although winter 2020-21 will come out a bit milder overall than 2008-09, I can still see some similarities with this winter and 2008-09, with the cold last few days of December and first third of January,  a cold spell in the first half of February (albeit a bit shorter than the one in the first half of Feb 2009), then the sudden switch to a very mild setup in mid-February (which is exactly the same as happened in 2009).

    Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    There are some similarities with this winter and 1965-66 (which was a moderate to strong El Nino winter I believe, unlike this year).   Although different to this winter, 1965-66 was preceded by a notably cold November (CET 4.5) with notable snowfalls at least by November standards.  1965-66 itself saw a December not far off Dec 2020 overall; although it was cold in its closing days but turned milder again early Jan, which was a fairly cold month (CET 2.9), (slightly colder overall than Jan 2021) and then there was a potent cold spell around mid-month for a fortnight with also a fair amount of snow about (more potent than any cold spell in Jan 2021) .  Feb 1966 was actually a mild month overall (CET 5.7), with a very mild first and final third. but did become colder for a time over the middle part of the month.  From the charts for Feb 1966, the month actually had a fair amount of northern blocking for most of the month, but except for a week or so around mid-month, it was not orientated favourably or not close enough to bring cold weather to Britain, so much of the time that month the UK was left in the middle of low pressure and winds mainly from the SW, so I can imagine that the UK would have been very wet.  

    I can imagine that Feb 1966 would have been a frustrating period for cold fans for much of the time, when it could have been a cold month if the northern blocking had set up favourably.

    The winter of 2020-21 is likely to come out fairly similar to 1965-66 although I think that the cold spell in mid January 1966 was more potent than any of the cold outbreaks in 2020-21.  Even so, the way that the cold spell in the second week of this month disappeared abruptly in mid-month into a very mild second half, makes this month feel very much like Februarys 2009 and 2012, and another February like those two, that could have been a cold month, had the cold spell not fizzled out abruptly into such a very mild pattern.

    Although winter 2020-21 will come out a bit milder overall than 2008-09, I can still see some similarities with this winter and 2008-09, with the cold last few days of December and first third of January,  a cold spell in the first half of February (albeit a bit shorter than the one in the first half of Feb 2009), then the sudden switch to a very mild setup in mid-February (which is exactly the same as happened in 2009).

    Also had a relatively cold first 10 days to December in 2020, not on the same level as Dec 2008, but both months turned very mild in the middle month period up to christmas. Stronger similarities than any other winter of recent times. March 2009 was a fairly mild benign quiet sort of month as well from memory.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 3.2C -1.5C below average. Rainfall 89.6mm 137.4% of the monthly average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Does anyone know which Februarys had the mildest second halves? This is surely heading close to the top of the list...

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    31 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Does anyone know which Februarys had the mildest second halves? This is surely heading close to the top of the list...

    Taking the 2nd half as the 15th onward, looks like this year will be about 8.2C before corrections. That would be the 4th warmest 2nd half after 2019 (8.8C), 1926 (8.4C) and 1846 (8.3C).

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    43 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Taking the 2nd half as the 15th onward, looks like this year will be about 8.2C before corrections. That would be the 4th warmest 2nd half after 2019 (8.8C), 1926 (8.4C) and 1846 (8.3C).

    Thanks for that, quite impressive really. I had expected 2019 to be top of the list. That record will probably stand for a long time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    4 hours ago, Scorcher said:

    Thanks for that, quite impressive really. I had expected 2019 to be top of the list. That record will probably stand for a long time.

    Suspect 2012 not far behind, and possibly 2009.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    For continuity ...

     

    4.4 C to the 21st

    0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

    (0.3c below the 91 to 20 average)

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 3.5C -1.2C below average, Rainfall 93mm 142.6% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Current daily record for the 24th is 11.4C from 1846, which we might threaten tomorrow.

    Looks like remaining quite mild overnight, so a minimum above 8C seems possible. Then how high maxima reach will depend on how much progress the cold front makes during the day. If it stays further west then 14C+ could occur widely, but if it moves further inland then cooler maxima might occur in northern parts of the CET zone.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.6c to the 22nd

    1.0c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    EWP will probably come in slightly higher than the excel scoring provisional used earlier (74.9 mm) at around 78 to 82 mm. Not a big enough difference to bother with an update now, will post the preliminary value on 2nd March with the adjusted scoring file. 

    CET may manage to stay in the high 4s thanks to a combination of cool nights later this week and a fairly high probability of a significant downward adjustment on the six-day cold spell values (have the feeling that will take one quarter of the month down almost a degree so that might argue for about 0.3 correction this month? we shall see.) ... 

    Assuming 4.8 C and 80 mm the best combined forecasts would appear to be bobd29 who had 4.6 and 85 mm ... another pretty good one was cawsand 4.4, 83 mm. Also a very good effort from a talented newcomer, 1991-2020 average, who "guessed" 4.9 and 72.4 mm (which could be exactly where we are tomorrow morning!). Well done to bobd29 and cawsand, pegg24 had a good CET guess at 5.0 but went a bit low on EWP (65 mm) to be in the running for best combined, timmytour needed his EWP to be the ISP for his guess of 4.5/110 mm. Shillitocettwo had 5.2 and just 38 mm, while two non-EWP forecasters had 4.4 (froze were the days, Quicksilver 1989) and that actually provides a complete list of all forecasts between 4.3 and 5.2 C.  If the outcome happens to be 5.2, there are only four forecasts warmer than that (6.0 being the first).

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up 3.7C -1.0C below average. Rainfall 93.5mm 143.4% of the monthly average

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    4.8c to the 23rd

    1.1c above the 61 to 90 average
    0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Minimum is 8.7C today, so a max of 14.2C is needed for a new daily record.

    EDIT: Also provisionally the mildest February night since the 6th in 2011.

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    What are we likely to finish at?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Very mild in the CET zone today. Most places above 14c with the south east in the upper teens. Who would've known this February would turn out very mild. CET probably in the mid 5s before corrections.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Might be hard pushed to get sub 5C after corrections now?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    59 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    Very mild in the CET zone today. Most places above 14c with the south east in the upper teens. Who would've known this February would turn out very mild. CET probably in the mid 5s before corrections.

    Some cooler nights ahead, so we may not quite make the mid 5s but not far off. I was thinking a high 4s finish, but a safer bet might now be low 5s. We've had a number of very mild second halves to Feb in recent years, 2009, 2012, 2019, 2020 and now 2021. Late Feb 18 seems an oddity, mind second half 2010 and 2013 were cold. It's becoming an increasingly polarised month it seems. 

    Is La Nina reason for mild?

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    In terms of daily record maxima and minima since the "Beast from the East" in 2018.

    4 low maxima & 2 low minima
    34 high maxima & 14 high minima

    Longest stretch was record high maxima every day from Feb 21st to 27th in 2019.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    Some cooler nights ahead, so we may not quite make the mid 5s but not far off. I was thinking a high 4s finish, but a safer bet might now be low 5s. We've had a number of very mild second halves to Feb in recent years, 2009, 2012, 2019, 2020 and now 2021. Late Feb 18 seems an oddity, mind second half 2010 and 2013 were cold. It's becoming an increasingly polarised month it seems. 

    Is La Nina reason for mild?

    Although Nina does tend to encourage late vortex formation and persistence it probably has more to do with the SSW timing in this case being early Jan. Getting 6 weeks out of it is a fairly good innings and high pressure spells afterterwards are not abnormal during vortex recovery.

    I'd say that 09/12 were more unlucky and anomolous because they occured in late Jan.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Would guess we will finish 5.3 or 5.4 before corrections but those could be fairly large, so anywhere from 4.9 to 5.2 seems most likely and see my earlier post for a summary of who said what in that general vicinity (not many went that high for CET). EWP looks to be settling in around 80 mm. The southeast has probably been considerably drier than that average. 

    The change in regime must seem even more dramatic in Germany, where I notice some readings today of 20 C, in areas that had -15 overnight lows in the cold spell, as well as 10-20 cm snow cover (I presume that's all gone). 

    The same thing has happened in Texas which had winter storm conditions a week ago and yesterday highs in the mid 20s (above normal but not record highs). Where I live it's a much more subtle change, we never got all that cold with a few days around -15 (not unusual for here) and now it's in the 5-10 C range with our deep mountain snow pack slowly shrinking away more from sublimation than melting although there's a bit of runoff evident on hilly streets around us. We had 70 cms of snow at peak depth in late January and that's more like 40 cms as of today, it looks the same outside but when you look more carefully the snow depths are definitely reduced. 

    We have quite a range in different climate zones around this mountan-valley complex, down in the Columbia valley the snow pack is only 10-20 cms, up on the alpine ski slopes it is closer to 2 metres. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    So funny at one point I thought my guess was too high how things turn, February one of the months which it has become extremely hard to get a notably cold CET.

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