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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest projections and probabilities

    Feb16Project.thumb.png.60965be48e38d29c4200628e95619630.png Feb16Prob.thumb.png.f7fc6ff737fc8c0ac4f018b444f678ec.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 61% (two days ago it was 47%)
    Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 10% (two days ago it was 7%)
    Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻to 27% (two days ago it was 46%)

    GFS for the 16th to the 21st averages about 7.6C, pulling the CET up to 4.1C.

    Lots of very mild days coming up, but they no longer look like threatening any daily records.

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    The official numbers show that the second half (15th to end including leap years) of Feb 2021 ranks fourth in the daily data era (1772 to 2021), this is the top ten now:  1. 2019 ___ 8.81 _______

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.  

    The February CET came in at 5.1C: 0.2C above the 91-20 average 1.3C above the 61-90 average 1.1C above the 20th century average 1.1C above the 19th century average Compared with

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    2.7c to the 15th

    1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.7c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    2.7c to the 15th

    1.2c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.7c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

    We have lift off! 😢

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    3 hours ago, Duncan McAlister said:

    Looks like the CET will not do the cold spell justice, a common theme in recent years.

    Although not cold right from the start, this month is now feeling very much like a February 2009 / 2012 style pear shaped winter month, with the switch to a very mild second half of the month, and another good February cold spell deteriorating into another very mild second half of the month, just like 2009 and 2012 did.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    6 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Latest projections and probabilities

    Feb16Project.thumb.png.60965be48e38d29c4200628e95619630.png Feb16Prob.thumb.png.f7fc6ff737fc8c0ac4f018b444f678ec.png

    The chances of finishing:
    Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 🔺 to 61% (two days ago it was 47%)
    Above average (>4.9C) is🔺 to 10% (two days ago it was 7%)
    Below average (<3.9C) is 🔻to 27% (two days ago it was 46%)

    GFS for the 16th to the 21st averages about 7.6C, pulling the CET up to 4.1C.

    Lots of very mild days coming up, but they no longer look like threatening any daily records.

    I expect the below average chance will steadily fall from here, with perhaps a small increase in the above average chance but mostly stacking in the odds in the close to average chance.

    That's based on what I think you explained a while back as your methodology of calculating these.  I don't really see at the moment any chance on a day by day basis of February being anything but over average until around the 27th......so the lack of remaining days won't reduce it too much it that does turn out to be the case.

    Really enjoy your updates BV and just want to highlight my appreciation of what you do to provide them. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    I'm predicting a very mild spell 19th February for a week ,just being silly realy ,great forum gang , bbq out this weekend, sausage baps and belly of pork ,any predictions for March on the cards if so mines 4c  below long term average with big swings and snow for all .cheers 🍻 gang .

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    Although not cold right from the start, this month is now feeling very much like a February 2009 / 2012 style pear shaped winter month, with the switch to a very mild second half of the month, and another good February cold spell deteriorating into another very mild second half of the month, just like 2009 and 2012 did.

    Strong comparisons with Feb 09, there was a SSW in January. The winter as a while very similar to winter 08-09, as said fingers crossed its followed by a winter like 09-10 when hopefully things will be much better overall than this winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Strong comparisons with Feb 09, there was a SSW in January. The winter as a while very similar to winter 08-09, as said fingers crossed its followed by a winter like 09-10 when hopefully things will be much better overall than this winter.

    Some similarities with the winter of 1965-66

    December 1965: 4.7

    January 1966: 2.9

    February 1966: 5.7

    As I mentioned before February 1966 was a cold middle, sandwiched between two very mild spells. 

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 1.6C -3C below average. Rainfall 80.2mm 123% of the average rainfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Some similarities with the winter of 1965-66

    December 1965: 4.7

    January 1966: 2.9

    February 1966: 5.7

    As I mentioned before February 1966 was a cold middle, sandwiched between two very mild spells. 

    Mean temp wise yes we could end up very similar. Jan 66 brought a snowy cold middle as well, Jan 21 cold snowy period was early on. Sounds like it was an episodic winter, in such seasons there are often swings from cold to mild, winter 08-08 and 12-13 fall in same category.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    3.1c to the 15th

    0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    An above average month looking more likely now (depending on what average you use).  Question is, how much above?  Probably not significantly and possibly close to the 1991-20 average?

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    3 hours ago, Don said:

    An above average month looking more likely now (depending on what average you use).  Question is, how much above?  Probably not significantly and possibly close to the 1991-20 average?

    If the February CET finishes above 4*C (which looks highly likely now) it would also put the overall winter CET above 4*C as well, so we are still very likely to record a close to average winter overall (possibly just above the 1961-90 mean but below the 71-00, 81-10 and 91-20 averages).   If my calculation is correct I believe that a February CET of 3.9*C would mean an overall winter CET of exactly 4.00*C.  Judging by what looks likely for this month's final CET it is looking like winter 2020-21 will not be significantly different to 2017-18 in terms of the overall CET.

    The answer is still very likely to be no below average winter overall since 2012-13 (I still think of a winter as being near average if the overall CET is 4.0 to 4.5).  For a winter firmly in the cold category overall I personally would call as an overall CET close to 3.0*C or below (like 2009-10 was).  Something around 3.5 overall is what I would call a colder winter although not especially so.

    Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Interestingly if you look at top 20 spotless years and the winters following the bias is towards average-cold in Dec and Jan and average-mild in Feb so actually a CET below 3.4C would have been anomolous and with average-cold-average this winter has backed the solar statistics.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Interestingly if you look at top 20 spotless years and the winters following the bias is towards average-cold in Dec and Jan and average-mild in Feb so actually a CET below 3.4C would have been anomolous and with average-cold-average this winter has backed the solar statistics.

    I thought that the mid 1980s was near solar minimum and saw cold Februarys in 1985 and 1986 (the latter exceptionally so).  1962-63 was near solar minimum and January and February that year were both sub zero for the CET.  1978-79 happened just after solar minimum and January and February that year were very cold.  The mid 1950s were just after solar minimum and the coldest periods at that time were in February in 1955 and 1956.  From what you say apart from possibly Dec 2010 I cannot see that the period just after solar minimum is biased towards the coldest weather occurring in any particular part of the winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
    12 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    I thought that the mid 1980s was near solar minimum and saw cold Februarys in 1985 and 1986 (the latter exceptionally so).  1962-63 was near solar minimum and January and February that year were both sub zero for the CET.  1978-79 happened just after solar minimum and January and February that year were very cold.  The mid 1950s were just after solar minimum and the coldest periods at that time were in February in 1955 and 1956.  From what you say apart from possibly Dec 2010 I cannot see that the period just after solar minimum is biased towards the coldest weather occurring in any particular part of the winter.

    I don't think its just the analogy around solar minimum as not all minimums are the same. It is the depth of cycle preceding and the depth/length of minimum that is important. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    56 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

    I thought that the mid 1980s was near solar minimum and saw cold Februarys in 1985 and 1986 (the latter exceptionally so).  1962-63 was near solar minimum and January and February that year were both sub zero for the CET.  1978-79 happened just after solar minimum and January and February that year were very cold.  The mid 1950s were just after solar minimum and the coldest periods at that time were in February in 1955 and 1956.  From what you say apart from possibly Dec 2010 I cannot see that the period just after solar minimum is biased towards the coldest weather occurring in any particular part of the winter.

    I'm only looking at top 10 and top 20 spotless years in the last 150. My statement does no apply to winters outside that (only winter 55 makes the list) as I was talking about probability (which isolated examples of the contrary don't really counter on a statistical basis).

     

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Significant jumps in the CET past couple if days, and the trend will continue. Should be closing in on 5 degree mark in a week or so time. At this stage a finish in the high 4s low 5s looks probably, upper limit probably 5.5 degrees, lower limit if we see a cool down at months end and with expected downward adjustment about 4.2 degrees. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    February 2021 the epitome of a pear shaped winter month!

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    6 hours ago, Don said:

    February 2021 the epitome of a pear shaped winter month!

    Actually, I disagree to an extent because it never started cold from the off. So the first half of this February is not going to be that particularly cold say to February 2009 and 2012 and they never contained any mild weather during their first halves. 

    Feb '09 first half: 1.0C

    Feb '12 first half: -0.2C

    Feb '21 first half about 2.3 to 2.4C

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Actually, I disagree to an extent because it never started cold from the off. So the first half of this February is not going to be that particularly cold say to February 2009 and 2012 and they never contained any mild weather during their first halves. 

    Feb '09 first half: 1.0C

    Feb '12 first half: -0.2C

    Feb '21 first half about 2.3 to 2.4C

     

     

     

    Hmm yes, you make a good point there!  Also I would rate February 2009/12 somewhat above 2021, particularly 2009!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    3.4c to the 17th

    0.3c below the 61 to 90 average
    1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

    ___________________________

    Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
    Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    2 hours ago, Don said:

    Hmm yes, you make a good point there!  Also I would rate February 2009/12 somewhat above 2021, particularly 2009!

    Interesting how 2009 often gets rated above 2012. Here it was the reverse, 2009 had just three days of lying snow of which the most was 0.5cm. There were 14 consecutive frosts but none below -2.7C and maxima were all above 2.0C. The mean in the first half for us was 1.3C.

    2012 on the other hand had a first half mean of 0.6C, 12 consecutive frosts but three were below -5C with a low of -6.7C. 6 days had maxima below 2C and we had 10 consecutive days of lying snow with two falls of 5cm and 9cm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, reef said:

    Interesting how 2009 often gets rated above 2012. Here it was the reverse, 2009 had just three days of lying snow of which the most was 0.5cm. There were 14 consecutive frosts but none below -2.7C and maxima were all above 2.0C. The mean in the first half for us was 1.3C.

    2012 on the other hand had a first half mean of 0.6C, 12 consecutive frosts but three were below -5C with a low of -6.7C. 6 days had maxima below 2C and we had 10 consecutive days of lying snow with two falls of 5cm and 9cm.

    Down to IMBY.  10 inches of powder snow on 2nd February 2009 and 3 inches of wet snow on 4th February 2012!

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