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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest projections and probabilities.

Feb20Project.thumb.png.507896d4044a863545ae7995d9c2f873.png Feb20Prob.thumb.png.9a232945a2b906db5f6840bf8ac734e8.png

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 46% (two days ago it was 65%)
Above average (>4.9C) is to 64% (two days ago it was 31%)
Below average (<3.9C) is to 0% (two days ago it was 4%)

GFS for the 20th to the 25th averages about 9.2C, pulling the CET up to 5.1C.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
23 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:


Below average (<3.9C) is to 0% (two days ago it was 4%)

How the mighty have fallen!  12 days ago it was at 70%!!!!

Just goes to show how an apparently established  pattern of weather can flip for the UK

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

No signal for anything cold to see the month out, indeed mostly mild or very mild in the CET zone. High likelihood we will reach the 5 degree mark, whether the final finish is in the 5s or 4s hard to call. I'm expecting downward corrections, some of the values for last week were circumspect. My hunch is a final figure in the high 4 mark. An above average month but not notably so, returning overall a winter a little above the average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

No signal for anything cold to see the month out, indeed mostly mild or very mild in the CET zone. High likelihood we will reach the 5 degree mark, whether the final finish is in the 5s or 4s hard to call. I'm expecting downward corrections, some of the values for last week were circumspect. My hunch is a final figure in the high 4 mark. An above average month but not notably so, returning overall a winter a little above the average. 

Yes, I think high 4's is a good call at the moment and can't really see it being any lower.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
39 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I think high 4's is a good call at the moment and can't really see it being any lower.

yeah agreed..... I mentioned back on the friday of the cold week that my guess of 4.5C could actually end up a little shy, when at one stage I was thinking it was would be way too mild a guess. Sadly, although a lot closer than I thought at one stage I would be, I think I'm still going to be a fair distance away from it! 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
41 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

yeah agreed..... I mentioned back on the friday of the cold week that my guess of 4.5C could actually end up a little shy, when at one stage I was thinking it was would be way too mild a guess. Sadly, although a lot closer than I thought at one stage I would be, I think I'm still going to be a fair distance away from it! 

No I think 4.5 won't be too far out, but probably unlikely it will end up that low.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

yeah agreed..... I mentioned back on the friday of the cold week that my guess of 4.5C could actually end up a little shy, when at one stage I was thinking it was would be way too mild a guess. Sadly, although a lot closer than I thought at one stage I would be, I think I'm still going to be a fair distance away from it! 

At one point earlier in the month, I thought my guess of 3.2C may have been too high!  No matter where the CET finishes, you're going to be far closer than me.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

One of those months where because an impending fairly locked in cold spell was looking likely in the first half of the month, it was tricky to see a quick route out, so, inevitably many went for below or close to average, alas it wasn't until around 10th it started to become apparent that it may well be a shorter lived colder spell than originally anticipated at the start of the month. 

Sometimes it's easier to be closer to the mark when either an appreciably above or below spell looks unlikely in the first half, the safe option then is to always go a bit above average, less margin for error when the eventual finish us usually comfortably above average, law of averages..

Also possibly if like me, people were blinkered by the colder spell on the horizon and didn't see the fact that the opening few days of the month were actually mild, this has had an impact on the month as well, had the first 6 days been average, then something much closer to average would have occurred, as a very mild second half wouldn't have been enough to cancel out a decent cold first half.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Personally I did venture that the cold would not last beyond mid month in the main but I expected a pressure build rather than a form of zonality so it’s hard to find any crumb.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

This month now feels very much like February 2009 and 2012 where what looked like a good cold spell in the first half could have given a decent chance of a cold month, but in both of those years it all went horribly wrong in mid February and both then saw mild second halves - this month saw a sharp cold spell in the second week; also at the start of this month's cold spell some models were predicting up to a two week cold spell, but just like in 2009 and 2012, it has just all gone belly up and fizzled out into a very mild second half.  Both Februarys 2009 and 2012 could have been cold months overall had they not gone belly up in mid-month, and now February 2021 joins this list as the third pear shaped February / winter month, in 13 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
8 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

This month now feels very much like February 2009 and 2012 where what looked like a good cold spell in the first half could have given a decent chance of a cold month, but in both of those years it all went horribly wrong in mid February and both then saw mild second halves - this month saw a sharp cold spell in the second week; also at the start of this month's cold spell some models were predicting up to a two week cold spell, but just like in 2009 and 2012, it has just all gone belly up and fizzled out into a very mild second half.  Both Februarys 2009 and 2012 could have been cold months overall had they not gone belly up in mid-month, and now February 2021 joins this list as the third pear shaped February / winter month, in 13 years.

To be honest I’d take that. Look at the winters that followed them. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.8C -1.9C below normal. Rainfall 89.1mm 136.7% of normal.

We are unlikely to make 100mm of rain. Present rate of increase if maintained in sunny Sheffield we are looking at finishing at 4.9C just 0.1C above average.

 

 

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.8C -1.9C below normal. Rainfall 89.1mm 136.7% of normal.

We are unlikely to make 100mm of rain. Present rate of increase if maintained in sunny Sheffield we are looking at finishing at 4.9C just 0.1C above average.

That would make the winter basically average as well.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
16 hours ago, trickydicky said:

To be honest I’d take that. Look at the winters that followed them. 

Yes, that's what I've been thinking too, short term pain, long term gain lol!   Obviously, that's in no way a guarantee of a better winter next year but interesting all the same.  As others have pointed out, the main difference between February 2009/12 and 2021 is the former were colder than average from the start, so had solid cold first halves, whereas the first 6 days of 2021 were mild.  That's why 2009/12 were close to average overall and 2021 milder.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.2c to the 20th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
17 hours ago, trickydicky said:

To be honest I’d take that. Look at the winters that followed them. 

Rather 2021 ended up like 2009 than 2012, without the November. Whilst summer 2009 wasn't especially up to anything it was far better than 2012. I did like the last 4 months of 2012 though. So perhaps March-Aug 09 followed by Sep-Nov 12 then Dec 09.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

4.2c to the 20th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

Another big jump and that will continue next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.2c to the 20th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

It must be odds-on to finish above 4C after corrections now. I can only see it going up with next week's outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
56 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It must be odds-on to finish above 4C after corrections now. I can only see it going up with next week's outlook.

5c wouldn't surprise me with a low correction.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

5c wouldn't surprise me with a low correction.

Who would have thought that two weeks ago?!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I think this February is bit more like February 1966 than February 2009 and 2012 as this February never started cold from the off. This winter as a whole resembles 1965-66 with the cold concentrated between Christmas and mid February

 

What was winter 1966/67 like?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I think this February is bit more like February 1966 than February 2009 and 2012 as this February never started cold from the off. This winter as a whole resembles 1965-66 with the cold concentrated between Christmas and mid February

 

It's made a refreshing change for the coldest conditions of the winter to occur in the core heart of the winter i.e. christmas to mid Feb, rather than at the very beginning or end. It's felt like a winter at least this year, despite never being particularly severe in any way. In terms of overall feel, I liken it more to 2008-2009 than any other recent winter, especially christmas to end first week Jan.

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