February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[North-Easterly Blast]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Actually, I disagree to an extent because it never started cold from the off. So the first half of this February is not going to be that particularly cold say to February 2009 and 2012 and they never contained any mild weather during their first halves. 

Feb '09 first half: 1.0C

Feb '12 first half: -0.2C

Feb '21 first half about 2.3 to 2.4C

 

 

 

What I was implying is that the second week of this February saw a sharp cold spell, so to an extent this February is very much an example of a cold spell of a shorter duration than 2009 or 2012 abruptly fizzling out into a very mild second half of the month, so whilst not identical, this February does bear similarities with 2009 and 2012.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest projections and probabilities.

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 65% (two days ago it was 61%)
Above average (>4.9C) is to 31% (two days ago it was 10%)
Below average (<3.9C) is to 4% (two days ago it was 27%)

GFS for the 18th to the 2erd averages about 8.4C, pulling the CET up to 4.7C.

[damianslaw]

13 hours ago, Don said:

February 2021 the epitome of a pear shaped winter month!

Sort of, on reflection we only managed a 8 day cold spell between 7 and 14 February. The first 6 days were mild. Perhaps more akin to Feb 99 which produced a cold second week but was mild otherwise.

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Sort of, on reflection we only managed a 8 day cold spell between 7 and 14 February. The first 6 days were mild. Perhaps more akin to Feb 99 which produced a cold second week but was mild otherwise.

 

I do not think that the cold spell in the second week of Feb 1999 was as potent as the one last week.  

[Relativistic]

3 hours ago, reef said:

Interesting how 2009 often gets rated above 2012. Here it was the reverse, 2009 had just three days of lying snow of which the most was 0.5cm. There were 14 consecutive frosts but none below -2.7C and maxima were all above 2.0C. The mean in the first half for us was 1.3C.

2012 on the other hand had a first half mean of 0.6C, 12 consecutive frosts but three were below -5C with a low of -6.7C. 6 days had maxima below 2C and we had 10 consecutive days of lying snow with two falls of 5cm and 9cm.

February 2012 was far better IMO. Over a week of lying snow and a couple of -10C minima. Stretching my memory a bit but I think the snow melted very quickly in 2009 and I can't remember such low minima. (I was in Chelmsford for both spells.)

Edited February 18, 2021 by Relativistic

[Timmytour]

Personally I think, with only 10 days to go, a few nights of frost towards the end are going to be required to keep this months CET getting above 4.5C and possibly heading towards the 5C mark....

[Timmytour]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Latest projections and probabilities.

The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is  to 65% (two days ago it was 61%)
Above average (>4.9C) is to 31% (two days ago it was 10%)
Below average (<3.9C) is to 4% (two days ago it was 27%)

GFS for the 18th to the 2erd averages about 8.4C, pulling the CET up to 4.7C.

Below average has gone from 63% to 4% in the space of 10 days.  

If I was still an idiot gambler, I would have almost certainly had money on it coming in!!! 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2C -2.6C below normal. Rainfall 85.2mm 130.7% of the monthly average.

Now expecting an just above average month.

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I do not think that the cold spell in the second week of Feb 1999 was as potent as the one last week.  

Yes it wasn't but I was just trying to think of Februaries that were mostly mild with the exception of the second week. Had the cold not been as intense this month then a very mild February would be on the cards, alas it will be cold enough to pull down the mean to something closer to average.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Relativistic said:

February 2012 was far better IMO. Over a week of lying snow and a couple of -10C minima. Stretching my memory a bit but I think the snow melted very quickly in 2009 and I can't remember such low minima. (I was in Chelmsford for both spells.)

Feb 2012 was an odd one in some respects, there wasn't much snow around but what did fall around the 4th stuck around for quite some time, thanks to the low nightime minima and maxima. High pressure held overhead and allow a cold pool of surface air to envelop the country. We had a freezing rain event on the 8th or thereabouts indicative of the cold surface air sat underneath much warmer air above. 

I preferred it to the Feb 09 spell, as it gave 5 inches of snow here on the 4th, whereas Feb 09 only delivered a couple of inches on the 1st and it quickly thawed. I know other parts saw much larger totals and the snow stuck around for much longer.

The wait for a decent Feb snowfall goes on, 25 years and counting. March has probably delivered larger single snowfalls than Feb since 1996.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Yes it wasn't but I was just trying to think of Februaries that were mostly mild with the exception of the second week. Had the cold not been as intense this month then a very mild February would be on the cards, alas it will be cold enough to pull down the mean to something closer to average.

February 2019 also sort of comes to mind as although it didn't have a cold second week, the opening days were cold, more than offset by the rest of the month being very mild, particularly the final week.  I remember the models at the beginning of the month were predicting a potentially very cold spell of weather with the Metoffice onboard, but then did a total flip!

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Feb 2012 was an odd one in some respects, there wasn't much snow around but what did fall around the 4th stuck around for quite some time, thanks to the low nightime minima and maxima. High pressure held overhead and allow a cold pool of surface air to envelop the country. We had a freezing rain event on the 8th or thereabouts indicative of the cold surface air sat underneath much warmer air above. 

 

It was an odd winter because that cold spell stopped that winter falling in the exceptionally mild category, up to the last few days of January 2012, the winter CET average was close to 6.0C The winter reverted back to type, mid February.

Thinking about it is even odder because it came during an exceptionally mild period which began late September 2011 to the end of March 2012. Winter lovers bemoan that February 2012 went pear shaped mid month, they should really be happy that it occurred at all given what was so dominating that period.

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.3C -2.4C below normal. Rainfall 87.2mm 133.7% of the monthly average

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

It was an odd winter because that cold spell stopped that winter falling in the exceptionally mild category, up to the last few days of January 2012, the winter CET average was close to 6.0C The winter reverted back to type, mid February.

Thinking about it is even odder because it came during an exceptionally mild period which began late September 2011 to the end of March 2012. Winter lovers bemoan that February 2012 went pear shaped mid month, they should really be happy that it occurred at all given what was so dominating that period.

 

 

The Sept 11-Mar 12 period bucked the cold period that lasted roughly Jun 07- Jun 13, with exception winter 07-08. The first half of Feb 12 was in sync with the general cold theme of that period. March 2012 was a very odd affair, exceptional warmth but that in itself might have been indicative of the abnormal background state. April 2012 was cold and wet leading into a cold wet summer and autumn followed by a cold winter and spring. Since July 13 we have been locked in a predominantly mild period, last one lasted roughly Feb 97 to June 07, over 10 years. 

Edited February 19, 2021 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

As I was surprised to learn last month the second half of Jan 12 was actually quite cool too so it was actually a month long spell in amongst the relentless warmth.

The 2014-2020 period produced 7 months at 1C or more below the 1981-2010 average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

It was an odd winter because that cold spell stopped that winter falling in the exceptionally mild category, up to the last few days of January 2012, the winter CET average was close to 6.0C The winter reverted back to type, mid February.

Thinking about it is even odder because it came during an exceptionally mild period which began late September 2011 to the end of March 2012. Winter lovers bemoan that February 2012 went pear shaped mid month, they should really be happy that it occurred at all given what was so dominating that period.

 

 

Winter 2011-12 was a type of winter that has never been seen since - it was an example of a winter that wasn't cold overall but still managed to see a cold spell in the first half of February.  Another winter I would put into this category further back would be 2004-05 - that winter may have been a milder than average one overall but still saw some cold weather in the second half of February and there was in fact a cold snap of sorts around Christmas that winter.  I cannot think of any winter since 2011-12 that was milder than average overall that still saw colder conditions at times. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The Sept 11-Mar 12 period bucked the cold period that lasted roughly Jun 07- Jun 13, with exception winter 07-08. The first half of Feb 12 was in sync with the general cold theme of that period. March 2012 was a very odd affair, exceptional warmth but that in itself might have been indicative of the abnormal background state. April 2012 was cold and wet leading into a cold wet summer and autumn followed by a cold winter and spring. Since July 13 we have been locked in a predominantly mild period, last one lasted roughly Feb 97 to June 07, over 10 years. 

The February to May 2011 period was also a protracted very warm spell.  Apart from the summer months in 2011, it was actually a predominantly warm spell in the 14 months from Feb 2011 to March 2012.  In actual fact in 2009, after mid February temperatures were often above average until early December; with only the July of that year being close to the 1961-90 average, so between mid 2007 and mid 2013 we were certainly not without extended spells of above average temperatures at times, although that period did produce more below average periods than most of the rest of the years since 1988.

Edited February 19, 2021 by North-Easterly Blast

[Don]

38 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Winter 2011-12 was a type of winter that has never been seen since - it was an example of a winter that wasn't cold overall but still managed to see a cold spell in the first half of February.  Another winter I would put into this category further back would be 2004-05 - that winter may have been a milder than average one overall but still saw some cold weather in the second half of February and there was in fact a cold snap of sorts around Christmas that winter.  I cannot think of any winter since 2011-12 that was milder than average overall that still saw colder conditions at times. 

I'm thinking perhaps 2018/19 which was very mild overall, but with cold snaps during  January and the beginning of February.

Edited February 19, 2021 by Don

[North-Easterly Blast]

43 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm thinking perhaps 2018/19 which was very mild overall, but with cold snaps during  January and the beginning of February.

Although compared to the rest of the winter 2018-19, it did become colder for a time during the second half of January, I think that the brunt of the Arctic outbreak went to America on that occasion, and for us is was not a particularly potent cold snap and for many areas there was not much snow about, so that is why I do not think the colder weather in late Jan 2019 is remembered as much.  Although winter 2018-19 was very mild overall especially late February, you are right that we had the carrot dangled in the second half of January and the pattern tried to become favourable for cold, but somehow it did not quite lock in or set up favourably, and it completely went away by early February.

[summer blizzard]

It was cold for about two weeks, the cold was just of a north westerly nature which did little in snow terms for most. We can't always expect easterlies though.

[damianslaw]

Sorry to have started a discussion on past winters..if no-one else does, I will start a thread sometime next week winter 2020-21 thoughts and overviews, can use that to compare with more recent ones.

I'll be using the word 'episodic'.

[Roger J Smith]

For continuity ... 

3.6c to the 18th

bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

(1.0 below the 91 to 20 average)

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

=========================================

Latest EWP estimates are 60 mm to mid-day and 80-85 final value. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 2.6C -1.9C below average. Rainfall 88.8mm 126.2% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 19th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

3.8c to the 19th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th
Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th

Now breached the 61-90 average.  5C to end the month before any corrections?