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February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    CET averages and extremes for February

    The following data include all CET values 1981-2020. Warmest 13 in bold type. Middle 14 values underlined. Coldest 13 are in italic.

     

    12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

    10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

     7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
     7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
     7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

     7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

     7.0 ... 2002

     6.7 ... 1997, 2019

     6.5 ... 1995

     6.4 ... 2011

     6.3 ... 2000, 2020

     6.2 ... 2014
     6.1 ... 2017

     5.9 ... 1989
     5.8 ... 2007

     5.4 ... 1992, 2004, 2008

     5.3 ... 1999

     5.0 ... warmest 30-year average (4.96) 1988-2017

     4.9 ... 1988, 2016 ... mean for 1991-2020 and 2001-2020.

     4.8 ... 1982
     4.6 ... 1993
     4.4 ... 2001 and mean for 1981-2010

     4.3 ... 2005

     4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
     4.1 ... 2009

     4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and 2015

     3.9 ... mean for 1659-2020 (all 362 years) -- 3.89 -- and 2003
     3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and 2012

     3.7 ... 2006

     3.6 ... 1987

     3.3 ... 1984

     3.2 ... 1994, 2013

     3.0 ... 1981

     2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700 and for 2018

     2.8 ... 2010

     2.5 ... coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) and 1996

     2.1 ... 1985

     1.7 ... 1983

     1.5 ... 1991

    -1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
    -1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
    -1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
    -1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
    -1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

    -2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
    -2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

    -3.2 ... running CET by 20th 1855 (!!)

    -4.3 ... running CET mid-month 1895 (!!)

    -6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

    -8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

    _____________________________________________________________________________________

    Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Sunday 31st January,

    or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Wednesday 3rd February. Good luck!

    ______________________________________________________________________________________

     

    EWP Precip contest

     

    Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

     

    Wettest ... ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020)

    former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833)

    former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990)

    1988-2017 avg ... 73.2 mm (highest running 30-yr avg)

    ____ ____ ____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (secondary max)

    1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm

    1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

    all data 1766-2020 avg 65.5 mm

    1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg)

    ___ ___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min)

    __ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993)

    Driest ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

    ____________________________________________________________

    2020 was 169.5 mm, 

    2019 was 54.2 mm, 2018 was 52.8 mm, 2017 was 72.0 mm and 2016 was 80.0 mm. 

    2015 was 59.3 mm, 2014 was 136.7 mm, 2013 was 48.3 mm and 2012 was 32.1 mm.

    =======================================================================

    Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish. Good luck !!

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    The official numbers show that the second half (15th to end including leap years) of Feb 2021 ranks fourth in the daily data era (1772 to 2021), this is the top ten now:  1. 2019 ___ 8.81 _______

    18z GFS run is even colder and could lead to a very low CET, there's almost no mild incursion left for next weekend then renewed cold that only fades out slowly. Values down into small negatives are q

    For winter February 2021 appears to be a record.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    this is probably gonna change at the end of the month, but for now ill put 3.5c and 45mm for February

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    3.9C, 60mm.

    Only 20% of my analogue set stays cool but I do think that this month will stay chilly. I expect the best of any meaningful northerly/easterly weather to occur during the first half of the month before pressure builds during mid to late month around the UK.

    Think the first half of Feb 09/12 (diluted) and the second half of Feb 13.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    Rest in pieces 'winter' 2020/2021!  10C  😞  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C February in 2018.  Out with a mild whimper...

    Also very wet with 500mm of Atlantic garbage

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    48 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

    Rest in pieces 'winter' 2020/2021!  10C  😞  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C February in 2018.  Out with a mild whimper...

    Also very wet with 500mm of Atlantic garbage

    Would 8C not at least give you a chance.

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    The coldest February in a long time:

    1.9c and 56mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    In the last 33 years there have been 19 Decembers with a CET of 5C or greater including the one just gone.  Only on one of those previous 18 occasions has the subsequent CET for February exceeded 3.5C
     

    Much as I would love it to give us a winter wonderland this year, I'm going for the form horse..

    4.5C and  110mm      for me please

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Are you sure about that stat (are you looking at the right year column). I'm thinking 2006, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2019 were all followed by February's above 3.5C. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    On 19/01/2021 at 17:32, Lettucing Gutted said:

    Rest in pieces 'winter' 2020/2021!  10C  😞  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C February in 2018.  Out with a mild whimper...

    Also very wet with 500mm of Atlantic garbage

    Do you sell canoes?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    3.2 deg C and 95 mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    37 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Are you sure about that stat (are you looking at the right year column). I'm thinking 2006, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2019 were all followed by February's above 3.5C. 

    F fs!   I missed the important word "not" out!!!   Cheers SB......it should read...

    Quote

    In the last 33 years there have been 19 Decembers with a CET of 5C or greater including the one just gone.  Only on one of those previous 18 occasions has the subsequent CET for February NOT exceeded 3.5C

    hence me going for the 'form horse"

     

    Edited by Timmytour
    can't use f f s together!
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    In the last 10 yrs, we only really had one cold February, which was in 2018, all others have been average to mild to very mild. In that time, 5 February's had CETs above 6. I rly hope Feb 2021 delivers, would be a nice change 

    Edited by Frigid
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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    4.6C and 85mm for me please

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    Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

    5c 65mm please 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    1.3 and 46.2 mm. 

    That would be the first 1.3 C ever entered into the Feb list and one of the least extreme missing values after 5.9 Dec. It would rank 32nd coldest of all time (1659-2021). Would love to be wrong on the high side with that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Cardiff

    7.8C and 50mm please!

    Edited by Earthshine
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      5.2.C and 38mm.

     

     Not particularly noteworthy on the surface. However, there will be a brutally cold snap between 10th and 17th getting below -20.C in places with the CET running not much above freezing mid month, but an insanely warm shot of air from Africa will break records and see temperatures nudging 25.C by the close of the month (think the 2019 Feb heatwave on steroids) sending the CET soaring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny in Summer, Cold & Frosty in Winter, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport

    Think I’ll go 3.1C and 95mm 👍🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    3.9c and 69mm please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    3.6c cheers 👍

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