Storm Christoph

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I think I'd rather be worried unnecessarily than get caught out.

[Nick F]

Analysis where Christoph low is now and why it rapidly deepens when it arrives over the UK tomorrow evening

Can see the movement in the image below of the jet/trough extending south from Greenland and the westerly jet pushing Christoph over the Atlantic from Azores.

Christoph develops in the left exit of jet streak rounding base of upper trough extending south toward UK, where upper level divergence in the jet exit causes convergence at the surface and thus deepening the low.

Before Christoph deepens later tomorrow, upper trough extending south engages frontal boundary and jet becomes parallel to it across N. Ireland and N England, lifting conveyor of /mild/moist Tm air creating copious rainfall along it, with waves along the slow-moving front too, enhancing rainfall.

You can see the temperature contrast either side of the front below

 

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Virtually all of the amber warning area is dry whilst the yellow warning are is pouring down

The warning is valid through until mid Thursday. As Jo says, a long way to go.

[BurntFishTrousers]

State of play at 12pm

[Darren Vidamour]

1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

There is a danger to life crossing a road. These don't work like that.

The "danger to life" phrase used to be saved for reds but it seems to crop up more in recent years. The MO have a set of drop down lists and can chose to add "danger to life" into the warning. All 3 warn of severe weather. People shouldn't be making non-essential journeys. The weather forecast is bad and flooding is likely but you don't tend to see a Red warning until the very worst conditions are imminent (or actually occurring), then no-one should be going out.

Thank you Jo for the reasoning. I won't be crossing any roads anytime soon  Fingers crossed it stays at amber.

[Nick F]

Actual radar shows rain a little further north across Scotland than 00z GFS for same time this morning

Looking at the 12z ICON and GFS, strongest winds from Christoph appear to be associated with active squally cold front when it clears SE quarter of the UK, 80 mph in Dover Straits Weds midnight on ICON, 70mph on GFS.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Nick F

[Badgers01]

It’s actually been relatively quiet in here today which is a good thing as that must mean so far not too many impacts from the rain - I understand it’s still a way to go but it could have been worse ! Still think it’s been a miss from those weather warnings and the maps though ! 

[Ross90]

Started raining here about an hour ago, moderate with nothing overly heavy. We're just outside the rain warning area and just inside the snow warning area although i'm below 100m so expecting rain.

[matty40s]

1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

It’s actually been relatively quiet in here today which is a good thing as that must mean so far not too many impacts from the rain - I understand it’s still a way to go but it could have been worse ! Still think it’s been a miss from those weather warnings and the maps though ! 

Believe me, it's only just getting going.

[Badgers01]

22 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Believe me, it's only just getting going.

I believe it’s been ongoing all day but by looking at the radar I am yet to see anything particularly extreme - as ever time will tell 

[Osbourne One-Nil]

25.4mm (1inch) of rain here so far today. 

[Rich_T]

24 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

I believe it’s been ongoing all day but by looking at the radar I am yet to see anything particularly extreme - as ever time will tell 

Reasonably peaceful here as well,certainly nothing thats caused any issues, most of the action appeared to be to the north by quite a  bit

[Jo Farrow]

1 hour ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

25.4mm (1inch) of rain here so far today. 

2 to 3" over the tops 

[alexisj9]

Getting windy down here now.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

If it wasn't for lockdown I'd venture over to the Honister Pass - it's phenomenal the amount of rain it receives

48 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

2 to 3" over the tops 

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

Using a quadrifilar helix antenna () at nearly 40ft height, a USB dongle, laptop with fast processor and some other relevant software, here we are right into the nitty gritty of Storm Christoph as the Meteor M2 weather satellite went overhead the storm.  Can't get any more up to date (at this time).  First image 10.3mb so good to enlarge and see what's going all around. Cold air south of Iceland about to meet the storm and then head east towards UK = explosive. 

[Jo Farrow]

Snow for parts of Scotland tonight as the main rain band has edged a bit further north, up against the cold air.

 

[matty40s]

I know a lot of people are thinking  ...is that really an amber warning storm?, but the river levels are building up and that conveyor belt into Scotland is going to start dropping back down into England, with more from further South as the two masses join together under jetstream pressure.

Theres another 36 hours of this yet.

 

[pyrotech]

Predicted river level In England

That is rather serious

Here in Wales worst weather from now onwards. The rivers are responding very quickly to rainfall. 

Suspect we may see flood issues in South Wales. Parts of North wales Have already had 81mm

Maybe a severe flood alert for Northern England tomorrow

 

[Ryukai]

Had about an inch of rain here so far, been breezy with the rare 20mph gust, but nothing you'd normally consider 'storm' worthy, house hasn't even creaked once.  Temps have been going up since 6pm though .  

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 hours ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

If it wasn't for lockdown I'd venture over to the Honister Pass - it's phenomenal the amount of rain it receives

 

Absolutely stunningly beautiful up that way too

[Weather-history]

Very mild, the mildest it has felt this year so far, 10.6C

 

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The Eden went over in Appleby las night. I'm not sure any properties would have been flooded at that level of water but today doesn't bode well. 

Hopefully we'll get nowhere near the ridiculous levels of Storm Desmond (black line at the top)

 

[Jo Farrow]

Flooding - @NatResWales now has 7 warnings / 51 flood alerts up from 10 alerts Tues morning.

@EnvAgency has 45 flood warnings /171 alerts over England up from 11 flood warnings /112 flood alerts Tues morning and the wide flood alerts over southern Scotland remain. @ScottishEPA

[BurntFishTrousers]