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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Named by UK Met Office, 

    0118christoph3.jpg
    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

    This week will see a lot of rain falling over the UK and the flood risk increases. The ground is sodden and with strengthening winds and then snow, Storm Christoph has got a lot going on.

     

    Heavy rain and flooding, gales and snow

    0118rainTuestot.png

    0118thurs6amsnow.png

    Edited by Jo Farrow
    adding blog
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    Using a quadrifilar helix antenna (😅) at nearly 40ft height, a USB dongle, laptop with fast processor and some other relevant software, here we are right into the nitty gritty of Storm Christoph as th

    Current/recent   Battle of the airmasses: Atmospheric river of Tropical maritime air surging NE across England & Wales, bringing copious rain to the NW while cold polar air surges

    So this storm seems to have been named for Heavy rain and flooding but looks like it needs to be viewed as an ongoing several day event  which includes heavy rain, snow melt flooding Tuesday- Thu

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    Thanks Jo, looking pretty rough for the North. Windy but drier down here in the South.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Warnings for Rain start on Tuesday morning, with Amber running through Wednesday too. Risk of flooding continues into Thursday with yellow rain warnings over Wales and England, snow melt adding to high rainfall totals. also strong winds, strong winds/ gales widely by Wednesday night into Thursday. Then the cold air and snow, will be quite and event this week

    0118warn mo.png

    0118lowwindsthurs.png

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    The MetOffice warnings page is broken. It's causing web browsers to lock up, both desktop and mobile.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The MetOffice warnings page is broken. It's causing web browsers to lock up, both desktop and mobile.

    Extension of Amber area 

    0118warnmoAmber2A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    The MetOffice warnings page is broken. It's causing web browsers to lock up, both desktop and mobile.

    seems like the whole site is down now. Sorry Jo, delete this if not appropriate for this thread. 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

    Was wondering if something interesting was going to happen as a gritter went past the house 30 mins ago.  Talk about pre-emptive salting, it'll probably get washed away before it does any good. 🤣 Looks like it's gonna be a doozy though *rubs hands together gleefully*.

    Edited by Ryukai
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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.

    That's a long amber warning!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    A rain warning for southern Scotland and Northern Ireland to add to the England Wales rain warnings but with the mention of hill snow

    0118warnmoyellow2A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Ryukai said:

    Was wondering if something interesting was going to happen as a gritter went past the house 30 mins ago.  Talk about pre-emptive salting, it'll probably get washed away before it does any good. 🤣 Looks like it's gonna be a doozy though *rubs hands together gleefully*.

    doubtful we'll get any snow, memorable event for north, stormforce winds, then rain, then buried in snaw

    to me, this whole thing is a northern event,

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    So this storm seems to have been named for Heavy rain and flooding but looks like it needs to be viewed as an ongoing several day event 

    which includes heavy rain, snow melt flooding Tuesday- Thursday with Amber warning for Rain.

    followed by wild weather midweek into Thursday (and it will all merge and seem like one "storm" to the public) with gales and then snow.

    The purists may say it is a different low but as this is a tool to highlight severe weather, it's not the actual techical yellow/amber warnings

    then I'm happy that the next few days severe weather all gets lumped under the "Storm Christoph" banner. I don't expect Darcey

    just wonder if the heavy rain Tues/Weds would have gotten a storm name if it wasn't going to be followed by the secondary low and its wild weather?

    0118christophlow2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

    So this storm seems to have been named for Heavy rain and flooding but looks like it needs to be viewed as an ongoing several day event 

    which includes heavy rain, snow melt flooding Tuesday- Thursday with Amber warning for Rain.

    followed by wild weather midweek into Thursday (and it will all merge and seem like one "storm" to the public) with gales and then snow.

    The purists may say it is a different low but as this is a tool to highlight severe weather, it's not the actual techical yellow/amber warnings

    then I'm happy that the next few days severe weather all gets lumped under the "Storm Christoph" banner. I don't expect Darcey

    just wonder if the heavy rain Tues/Weds would have gotten a storm name if it wasn't going to be followed by the secondary low and its wild weather?

    0118christophlow2.png

    Thank you for that insight - I think in the interest of getting out a clear message to the public it’s probably  best viewed as one named storm !!??

    The met office really need to focus on clarity the way the warnings are overlayed on the website it is really difficult to decipher them. 

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    2 hours ago, Rammie said:

    That's a long amber warning!

    The East side (Trent/Witham/Nene and Great Ouse are already causing problems, flood gates on the Trent overtopped on Saturday and the Stamp End Sluices in Lincoln had to dump water downstream because Lincoln was about to flood.

    The Amber has probably been extended to this area as there are so many EA warnings already.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mansfield
  • Location: Mansfield
    28 minutes ago, matty40s said:

    The Amber has probably been extended to this area as there are so many EA warnings already.

    Was wondering why my area (Mansfield) was suddenly added to Amber area when looking at the various rainfall charts it doesn't really seem to warrant more than a yellow (at this stage at least) to my totally untrained eye.

    Thanks for the insight.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.
    25 minutes ago, Tim M said:

    Was wondering why my area (Mansfield) was suddenly added to Amber area when looking at the various rainfall charts it doesn't really seem to warrant more than a yellow (at this stage at least) to my totally untrained eye.

    Thanks for the insight.

     

    The Trent level looks like this:

    image.thumb.png.71a86459724bb0212b2e0f9d5781bb18.png

    whereas my local river, the Mersey looks like this:

    image.thumb.png.4757e6b93890ff11da9d61e602bc8f1a.png

    We always get a sharp peak like that, as the top of the catchment isn't very far east into Derbyshire, so it all drains out quickly. Most of the area of the Peak District drains to the East, and takes a lot longer to go down again. I'm guessing we'll get a challenge for the highest ever level some time on Wednesday, depending on how much of a rain shadow we get from Wales. That highest level is from the Xmas 2015 floods, I think.

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    2 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

    So this storm seems to have been named for Heavy rain and flooding but looks like it needs to be viewed as an ongoing several day event 

    which includes heavy rain, snow melt flooding Tuesday- Thursday with Amber warning for Rain.

    followed by wild weather midweek into Thursday (and it will all merge and seem like one "storm" to the public) with gales and then snow.

    The purists may say it is a different low but as this is a tool to highlight severe weather, it's not the actual techical yellow/amber warnings

    then I'm happy that the next few days severe weather all gets lumped under the "Storm Christoph" banner. I don't expect Darcey

    just wonder if the heavy rain Tues/Weds would have gotten a storm name if it wasn't going to be followed by the secondary low and its wild weather?

    0118christophlow2.png

    The amber rain warning qualifies the first low. As the amber is still there for the next, I don't know how they should run it. For less confusion for the masses, I expect they'll keep just the one name. We'll see Thursday I expect.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    Perhaps they will add the -er on Thursday.

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    1 hour ago, matty40s said:

    Perhaps they will add the -er on Thursday.

    ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    A look at GFS PWAT charts across the N Atlantic show a mild/moist conveyor of Tm air surging NE to NW Europe over the next few days.

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-pwat-1610971200-1610971200-1611165600-20.thumb.gif.eb9a51dce54e7cdd75ccd0f2f8cce5c8.gif

    By early Wednesday, the jet stream becomes increasingly parallel with the frontal boundary between Tm and Pm air, which will mean the frontal boundary lying across Ireland and N England will move little in 24-36 hours.

    loop.thumb.gif.b848a690c46dec8adbf6ff933a6d6128.gif

    Meanwhile a sharpening upper level trough will extend south from Greenland and engage the frontal boundary, increasing lift of the warm/moist conveyor - producing copious rainfall on western windward high ground exposed to the moist westerly flow, 12z ARPEGE rainfall accumulation by noon Thursday has close to 200mm over North Wales and 100mm over western Pennines north of Manchester.

    ARPOPUK12_72_18.thumb.png.55c68f39ba0ade40c45fe3a6df774422.png

    Meanwhile, a new low centre develops over Wales Wednesday evening in response to the sharpening upper trough digging south and strengthening upper level divergence in the left exit of the jet streak which runs around the base of the upper trough, as seen in jet stream animation below. The low then quickly deepens in the developmental left entrance of the jet as it is carried NE towards the North Sea. This is Storm Christoph.

    gfsgif_jet03-66.thumb.gif.c70fa44d07a6ec802374a67bba8103d0.gif

    Could be some gales for a time Wednesday night across SE England /E Anglia - as the cold front clears, then gales look to develop along North Sea coasts Thursday morning, as Christoph deepens over the North Sea

    gfsgif_gusts.thumb.gif.dbb543fe344f016d428350f5a2b6591a.gif

    Also cold air cutting in from the north, as the depression clears NE, with freezing level falling to 500m by end of Wednesday, allowing precipiation falling on the western side of Christoph to turn to snow across Scotland and northern England, more particularly across higher ground - where models are indicating 10-20cm over northern Pennines, Cumbrian Fells, Cheviots, southern Uplands and also Highlands - particularly towards the east ... perhaps 20-30cm over higher passes - which could become impassable.

    overview_20210118_12_063.thumb.jpg.082775f81061b072337db7a7af7dbd8a.jpg

    But the amount of rain falling looks to be the main issue.

    Nick

     

     

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    Wouldn’t be surprised to see some wind warnings issued either tomorrow or Wednesday once the exact track is determined as best it can be given the volatile state of the atmosphere. 
     

    A notable period of weather bringing serious flood risk, severe gales and potentially significant snow & blizzard conditions over northern Britain. 
     
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    The UKV day by day rain totals don't make for the most pleasant reading.

    ukv1.png ukv2.png ukv3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    I fear the Severn Valley is going to have a lot of problems given the large amounts of rain due over north Wales.  

    Accumulated rainfall at T+72 from GFS 12Z OP, WRF NMM and ARPEGE. 4 inches or more for north Wales and an awful lot for north-west England as well.

    image.thumb.png.7fe42fa529a2f0733f80239ddc352b97.pngimage.thumb.png.8f751da114ca4bb6b444d42be565cf32.pngimage.thumb.png.10d164169f5c729f94e746ade773b374.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrose Bradford
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Wrose Bradford

    As ive posted in the other forum ive been advised to move things higher from my mums house who has the River Aire running at the bottom of her garden! This storm has the potential to be worse than 2015 😞

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