Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[snowangel32]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Go on my san

Surely if those Greenland heights link up with the Artic high then the cold air to our east has nowhere else to go but into Scandinavia and towards the UK. Much better runs this afternoon and make a huge difference towards the end of Jan potential. Come on ECM back it up now.

[Johnp]

This is the sort of chart I always imagine when I think of SSW's

[Battleground Snow]

Arctic high just big enough and towards our side of the hemisphere to get the cold over us in FI. Vortex smashed into 3 pieces.

Look for this in ensembles at 240.

 

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

That is a very nice chart over the Arctic

 

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

Certainly a better run for 850's 

 

6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

A nicer looking 12z,  should keep everyone quiet until Mornings 00z when the toys and dummys go flying once more

 

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Optimistic? We have ECM in 90 minutes which has been a source of doom consistently.. be great to see that make a move for a full house of 12z positive

Teaching cap off, chores done, what have I missed? 

So apparently the gfs still has a faint pulse? 

GEM isn't as optimistic at 162.

[Winter Hill]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge going for it again in the east after dropping it a bit earlier. Snowfall tonight Vs sat to compare below..remember is accumulates all falling snow though ...

Those snow charts are Load of old tosh.

[Djdazzle]

Nothing amazing, but a good step in the right direction. Feeling a bit more positive.

[IDO]

By d12 much more interesting with eastwards progress -v- the westerly flow. I think this sort of NH profile is what we have been hoping to show up:

That def has potential whatever way this run travels?

[ianmm94]

FL scandi high incoming?

 

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes decent attempt at Atlantic ridging at t144 by both GFS and UKMO.

GFS  then keeps the ridge going and prevents phasing of the Atlantic lows until later.This enables the jet to edge a bit further south and we keep the northerly going as the UK low clears east.Although not bitter it does begin to lower uppers from the north.

A better trend but so much uncertainty as we go into next week but trends are all we can look for at this stage.

 

And that's your lot Phil , that's about as far as any of us dare look. Mush better to that point it has to be said 

[SLEETY]

Siberian high about to make an entrance? Finally,we are getting SSW effect.

[MJB]

Collison course look left and right lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

I mean come on!  How can we NOT get frigid cold from a NH profile like this??

 BFTP

[That ECM]

Confidence is low. I reckon.

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Collison course look left and right lol

What a chart. Pick the bones out of that one!

[Battleground Snow]

If we could just get some damn amplification in the Atlantic sector we would hit the jackpot here on the para at 264.

 

[Summerstorm]

Looks the Para is interested in throwing up another ridge around D11 which would be helpful to drain heights out of Iberia and Italy Although it's all a bit academic at that range unfortunately the LP on the eastern seaboard is too strong and the ridge collapses. But I am merely speculating at this point. Also looks like @Battleground Snow beat me to it 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Summerstorm

[SLEETY]

well the trends are getting colder now andlook at that cold pool over Europe.If we do get an easterly,then we are talking some serious lake effect snow on E coast.Excited again!

Edited January 14, 2021 by SLEETY

[nick sussex]

The car crash of emotions continues for coldies after several days of downgrades the models are  trying to lift spirits .

However we do seem to be still stuck with the scraps from the buffet table.

In all honesty I’m still rather underwhelmed . The troughing stuck over the UK never relents , we need this to weaken and be forced further to the se .

Although the GFS has some slightly colder uppers later it does have a bias for overdoing the cold at the longer range .

So although the GFS and UKMO are a bit better in that they at least do manage to get low pressure further east this is from a low bar .

Marginal conditions look like the order of the day once again unless we see some more  changes . 

And we still have the ECM to come , that in particular has been very disappointing of late so hopefully that will at least clear the low bar in which it’s been stuck for the last few days .

[snowangel32]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

I mean come on!  How can we NOT get frigid cold from a NH profile like this??

 BFTP

Shortwave defences from the North, South, East and West lol. If its possible to avoid cold in the UK anything is possible lol.

[phil nw.]

10 minutes ago, MJB said:

And that's your lot Phil , that's about as far as any of us dare look. Mush better to that point it has to be said 

Although currently this is not a classic setup for cold as we first hoped Indeed as i said changes are quite likely. The basic pattern of ht anomalies to the n/nw goes on but we need a better dig south of cold so from that pov i remain positive.

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, that’s a cracking Ukmo 12h T+144 hours chart...would Shirley get colder from there judging by where the isobars are coming from?!!!!

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Phil Blake]

 

Para, icon, gem, ukmo probably not in right order but at 144

[Griff]

Ecm to follow gem? 

I hope not... 

[Cold Winter Night]

42 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

People bemoaning the 850s not being very low should consider the dewpoints.

Marginal Thu but low enough Fri pretty much everywhere.

As far as I can discern, the air behind the initial cold front starts out near the southern tip of Greenland.

Then, air from north of the UK starts to wrap around - this more efficiently done than in the previous few runs.

Curious about this, I ran it through NOAA's HYSPLIT model for a central UK location (using the available  GFS 6Z output) and found this:

On Thursday the 21st:
- Air at 10m agl would come from Taimyr Russia, through Greenland and Iceland.
- Air at 500m agl would come from the central Atlantic looping through the Norwegian Sea.
- Air at 1500m agl would come from Labrador, doing that same looping.

On Friday the 22nd:
- Air at 10m agl would come from Taimyr Russia, through the Barents Sea.
- Air at 500m agl would come all the way from the Bering Street, doing a tour along the Russian Arctic coastline and the Barents Sea.
- Air at 1500m agl would come from Ireland, moving through Greenland and back.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Cold Winter Night

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Ecm to follow gem? 

I hope not... 

Well it never followed last night or the night before.  Oh the irony..... Don't you even think about it MR E