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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    my wife has had it twice but me and the older kids didn’t contact it a second time. I think if you had it bad or you’re younger then you have a longer immune response 

    anyway, time to see if the week 2 Gfs runs find some retrogression of the Iberian ridge and a euro trough 

    Interesting you say that as I only know of females that have contracted it a second time such as my mums friend so far though im kind of of the opinion it could be that long covid tends to affect more women so maybe it takes them longer to rid the virus.

    Anyway back on topic before I get a little orange message pop up at the top of the screen telling me to stay on topic 😂-

    Ive fished out this 18z beaut for Sunday which shows wintry precip over much of the South/East and SE 1535877828_Screenshot_20210118-222904_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.aa9a2bef9b7635a2688a91d6fac57273.jpg

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    12z Vs 18z day 11 #hasntgotascooby 

    1C308D8D-2C92-4A40-9DBD-DE6F0F1A8886.png

    67C3EA7C-85FA-4640-8924-FFEFD20924E2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    12z Vs 18z day 11 #hasntgotascooby 

    1C308D8D-2C92-4A40-9DBD-DE6F0F1A8886.png

    67C3EA7C-85FA-4640-8924-FFEFD20924E2.png

    Just as much "agreement" as usual between gfs and para late on too... 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    EC Scenarios 12z

    ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-qxxkm-6  ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-jqwm9-6  ps2png-worker-commands-7745797d4-74bpj-6

     

    Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

     

    spacer.pngspacer.png

     

    So, needed blocking is with one weaker cluster around month change... bit of hope...but... mrn (more runs needed)

    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFS FI, well that was a long wait that bares no resemblance to previous... 

    gfsnh-0-306.png

    gfsnh-1-306.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    V nice looking pub run

    image.thumb.png.4b5a06b8a615fa0aebf2b6370a57f9b4.pngimage.thumb.png.5e25fd1ec4468325b0a106b55c18966d.png

    👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

    Evening all 

    Hope you are all well!

    Great January up here so far - couple of decent/surprise snowfalls, ice days, endless frosts and low temperatures! Proper Winter after that abysmal 2019/20 one! 😁 

    Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies!

    Weekly breakdown below:

    25/01 to 31/01

    D12044DF-696C-4F92-8A41-93F4741AD4B3.thumb.png.5689b596a906baae52d54ed424387134.png
     

    01/02 to 07/02

    6885DE9A-8EA4-4B21-933F-FC4664747735.thumb.png.6bd1ead3cdadfab5a3ceb06342e0eb55.png
     

    08/02 to 14/02

    D95AD8F8-B16F-4A35-8968-ED7E8E318351.thumb.png.57899e00bbe8ed0475e7878fbfaacf84.png
     

    15/02 to 21/02

    788A5775-97BF-4C21-A493-49C1687F1597.thumb.png.a35022a3847f7ced7c49ef4f37717be8.png
     

    22/02 to 28/02 

    5DB09F67-8CAB-4E26-915D-A1F322471AA3.thumb.png.a41c6636ab9271f6221cc973fdccf133.png
     

    For any new members/guests browsing the thread...any shade of blue is good, white is meh and orange/red is very bad! 😆

    Will try and catch up with this thread at some stage! 

    All the best to you all! 

    These smack of frontal snow events draped somewhere across the UK...First week N favoured, 2nd week Midlands favoured and 3rd week the S favoured. That's how I read it anyway. Would be good to see the associated precip charts

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    The strong arctic high I was tracking a few days ago has drifted northwest to around 84N 110E. From there it seems most likely to start dropping southwest into Russia near the Urals. I don't expect models to do extremely well with its further progress being that close to the North Pole where tiny changes of latitude or longitude especially get amplified quickly. 

    The central pressure has remained fairly constant around 1050 mb. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Just for a change I thought I'd look at the Icon 18z ensembles which go very cold again at the end of the run I've attached some 2metre temps as the 850HPA aren't available on Wetterzentrale, I was surprised to see max temps of around 3c here in the SE as an average by 23rd January! Barely above Freezing in Scotland, and around 4-4.5c in the SW/S Wales, cold signal for sure is Growing even on the "lesser" models

     

    PS thanks to the reply Scott I hope your mum gets all the help and care she needs ❤ 🙏

     

    Night all

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    Screenshot_20210118-233051_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210118-233108_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    2 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

    I can do sometime soon.

    My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

     scott I wish you and your mum a speedy recovery I hope you both get well soon I am sure most members here on net weather wish you the same

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Finally some decent cold being shown on the gfs op, no mucky slush, on this run, let's hope its the start of a trend and the gfs doesn't revert to mild again in 6 hours. 

    Ecm was hinting at something similar at the end of its run earlier, so let's hope that continues in the morning. 

     

    A better outlook hopefully for cold weather fans.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    A latest look at the 18z gefs ens for my local and London...

    ens_image.thumb.png.8277b5694cd27dd8ad3ae84c3154dce3.png712568646_ens_image(1).thumb.png.0edeed7f231acfab3e59d9c37dbf7ea8.png

    there is some huge rainfall spikes there(for here) but can we get that mean down toward Feb?,..it's getting there with a fair few ens following the op,...interesting times as we move into Feb.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    Hi folks this the weekly MJO discussions link from NOAA  

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

    I can do sometime soon.

    My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

    Really sorry to hear this Scott. Wishing your mum a speedy recovery! 

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