Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[frosty ground]

12Z a colder run

[frosty ground]

Large high out east

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

12Z a colder run

Snow chances across almost all parts of Britain and Ireland so far. Looks to be a lot more precipitation around. 

[The Northern Ramper]

Scotland and Northern/Central England firming up on Snowy conditions from Wednesday onwards.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Actually that's untrue - all the charts on Netweather are the equivalent of the 'HD' ones on Meteociel as we use the 0.25 degree data across the board. The difference is the chart type - one is lying snow, the other is falling snow. 

Yes, I was rightly corrected by @frosty ground. There was no metric or details on the screenshot and I assumed it was what was settling! It still looks a bit unlikely to me having seen the Met forecast, but the op suggests it, so we cannot ignore! 

[winterof79]

Possible snow event for Northern Britain Saturday night

[frosty ground]

So the 12Z has already corrected south from the 6z which was already one on the mildest runs in the ensembles. 

[frosty ground]

 

Wedge on this run, so may go colder in the long term.

[Man With Beard]

It's slider Saturday on the models so far - watch the little low "slide" under the big low, and into the colder air.

Snow areas vary across England

Edited January 18, 2021 by Man Without Beard

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So the 12Z has already corrected south from the 6z which was already one on the mildest runs in the ensembles. 

Think you mean corrected north on uppers

[frosty ground]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Think you mean corrected north on uppers

Sorry the 12Z is the first chart,, its colder further south than at the same time frame as the 6z.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

So the 12Z has already corrected south from the 6z which was already one on the mildest runs in the ensembles. 

Yes, I did not bother commentating on the 06z gfs at my usual d13 as it had gone a bit fishy by then and looked a worse-case scenario!

As for Darren Betts UK HP, that is possibly a forecast based on the eps enso MJO 6 composite? I am not ultra confident in the MJO lately, and gfs is backing off a bit:

source: > here <

[MR_E]

Low looks like it's creeping south on the latest run.. Could it turn some of this stormy rain in the South Wales/England into snow if its drops further south?

[frosty ground]

Day 10 but it is significantly colder that the 6z, probably the bottom end.

Also a small surface high is gonna make it feel cold

[Singularity]

  

To partition or not partition?

Yet again this question is posed regarding the key area(s) of low heights relative to the UK... and to be honest I couldn't tell you which is more likely!

Two of Tamara's scenarios on display here. Very different surface temperature implications.

[Man With Beard]

Probably best not to show people in the SE the parallel for T150, no point getting people's hopes up.

Ooops...

[Penrith Snow]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

  

To partition or not partition?

Yet again this question is posed regarding the key area(s) of low heights relative to the UK... and to be honest I couldn't tell you which is more likely!

Two of Tamara's scenarios on display here. Very different surface temperature implications.

Massive difference between 06z and 12z with the later being much colder, yes there is a chance it will turn milder next week but this keeps getting pushed back and watered down. Normally this happens with cold spells!

I am pinning my hopes on background signals and growing influence of the SSW, so grumpy GFS FI  can do one for awhile yet. The MetO are still confident in a cold outlook and I prefer to consider that rather than fantasy charts, I would do the same if GFS was going for cold and the MetO were saying staying mild.

Great spell of weather coming up and I think everyone is in with a chance.

Andy

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Probably best not to show people in the SE the parallel for T150, no point getting people's hopes up.

Ooops...

Keep um coming.  It might be closest we get. 

[Tim Bland]

GFSp is the most appetizing for the south this weekend with 10cm in a few spots. Unlikely but not impossible 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sun AM still on moving W to E

[MR_E]

Comparison of last 4 runs. Outside chance that it could clash with the rain if the trend continues? 

[Bricriu]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp is the most appetizing for the south this weekend with 10cm in a few spots. Unlikely but not impossible 

The para my new favourite model till it's showing something milder:)

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp is the most appetizing for the south this weekend with 10cm in a few spots. Unlikely but not impossible 

This is the only way the south coast is going to get anything. liking the ukmo in all seriousness.

[Battleground Snow]

25 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, I did not bother commentating on the 06z gfs at my usual d13 as it had gone a bit fishy by then and looked a worse-case scenario!

As for Darren Betts UK HP, that is possibly a forecast based on the eps enso MJO 6 composite? I am not ultra confident in the MJO lately, and gfs is backing off a bit:

source: > here <

Hi @IDO

Did you see the composite when it was filtered for a  - NAO regime

 

[Paul White.]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Indeed PSL . . . and it's always safer when we discuss what the models are actually showing, and not just what we want them to show?

Hi the mean doesn’t really get above zero with a huge scatter almost a 30c temp difference. I think that qualifies as what the model is showing