Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Methuselah]

40 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

It looks like the GFS 06z run is almost a complete mild outlier after the 26th wrt ens.max 2m temperatures.

Around 5/6c warmer than the mean line.These for Warks.Other locations even quite far north show it as a mild run so we will see.

What is apparent now is good agreement for the cold dip days 3 to 7 then it's all down to how much influence the AH has on ridging the jet further north. 

As for the next few days the low and it's frontal systems across the middle this week will cause some interesting weather

Yes a lot of rain with this but quite a bit of snowfall north of that front as the colder air digs in.

It is worth keeping an eye on the weekend's developments as there may a secondary low show up running across the south/channel.Not sure at this stage if there will be very much precipitation involved but if there is with cold air and reasonable dewpoints in place then areas further south could get a surprise snow fall.Just a possibility at this stage.

Not sure I call it an 'outlier' exactly, Phil, but it's on the warm side of the pack (one of a warm cluster?) right enough:

    

Edited January 18, 2021 by General Cluster
Doh!

[BLIZZARDMAN]

I know I'm not the most knowledgeable on this forum but this idea of the Russian high disappearing when we need it doesn't make too much sense to me. Now I could be completely wrong but I believe it WAS the russian high that prevented real cold air from making it to us, due to the source being far south of Europe/middle east. Even then the air cooled significantly by the time it reached us leading to some very cold days and nights over the past month or so and with MANY marginal snow events in areas. 

IF that high was to gain latitude and move west we would be in BFTE territory and that is where a lot of us have placed hope in the SSW, its still not over and a resurgence of heights to our east is something I believe we will see at some point in the next 6 weeks.

Lets keep chasing!

[phil nw.]

19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not sure I call it an 'outlier' exactly, Phil, but it's on the warm side of the pack (one of a warm cluster?) right enough:

    

Yes definitely near the top end Pete on the 850 charts too. 

 

[Chesil View]

With the effects of the Jan 5th warming in the process of playing into and further warmings yet to play into the models. I'd be very wary about drawing any conclusions from any numerical model beyond 5-7 days at the moment.

[Cleeve Hill]

45 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

It looks like the GFS 06z run is almost a complete mild outlier after the 26th wrt ens.max 2m temperatures.

Around 5/6c warmer than the mean line.These for Warks.Other locations even quite far north show it as a mild run so we will see.

What is apparent now is good agreement for the cold dip days 3 to 7 then it's all down to how much influence the AH has on ridging the jet further north. 

As for the next few days the low and it's frontal systems across the middle this week will cause some interesting weather

Yes a lot of rain with this but quite a bit of snowfall north of that front as the colder air digs in.

It is worth keeping an eye on the weekend's developments as there may a secondary low show up running across the south/channel.Not sure at this stage if there will be very much precipitation involved but if there is with cold air and reasonable dewpoints in place then areas further south could get a surprise snow fall.Just a possibility at this stage.

Love your updates Phil. Voice of reason and perspective. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A strong signal for above average temperatures especially further South now showing on GEFS ensembles favouring a positive NAO with low pressure to the north and high pressure to the South. Not a great outlook with flooding becoming a major issue for some.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A strong signal for above average temperatures especially further South now showing on GEFS ensembles favouring a positive NAO with low pressure to the north and high pressure to the South. Not a great outlook with flooding becoming a major issue for some.

Indeed PSL . . . and it's always safer when we discuss what the models are actually showing, and not just what we want them to show?

[goosey007]

21 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A strong signal for above average temperatures especially further South now showing on GEFS ensembles favouring a positive NAO with low pressure to the north and high pressure to the South. Not a great outlook with flooding becoming a major issue for some.

About Par for the course then as far a recent winters are concerned ......if it was'nt for some uncertainty in peoples minds ref SSW then this would be accepted more widely as the most likely course of events. Just hope the models pick up something more favourable and consistent for cold before January is out ........ 

Edited January 18, 2021 by goosey007

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure we have had 2 actually, its a continuation of the same one, i certainly wouldn't rule out that occurrence happening before the end of winter though, first time i have said that in nearly 10 years of strat monitoring.

Ah right, i stand corrected

trouble is, its gone rather quiet on the strat forum so us mere mortals without the links to the data/time are left out in nomans land.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

35 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A strong signal for above average temperatures especially further South now showing on GEFS ensembles favouring a positive NAO with low pressure to the north and high pressure to the South. Not a great outlook with flooding becoming a major issue for some.

A stronger signal for cold weather though before hand? Your looking 59 fi calling it strong 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

A stronger signal for cold weather though before hand? Your looking 59 fi calling it strong 

But are you referring to 1947, '63 or '79, SSIB? 'Beforehand' can mean different things to different people?

[frosty ground]

Icon has a slight but distinct shift south east around the 168 mark, which has been duplicated on the last 3 runs.

 

Heights still building to the south but its getting delayed. 

[mountain shadow]

Hey up!

Thursday Morning

Edited January 18, 2021 by mountain shadow

[Fozfoster]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Hey up!

Thursday Morning

LOL if only MS

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

42 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

A stronger signal for cold weather though before hand? Your looking 59 fi calling it strong 

I’m talking about the mid term outlook as it’s fairly obvious the weekends weather is more certain with winds coming down the west side of the low giving snowfall for northern parts.

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Fozfoster said:

LOL if only MS

The colder air is cutting in from the North. If the precipitation hangs around, you never know.

[Fozfoster]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The colder air is cutting in from the North. If the precipitation hangs around, you never know.

Not for IMBY lol

Just bought a mercedes GLA 4matic ready for the snow MS

Edited January 18, 2021 by Fozfoster

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Hey up!

Thursday Morning

Sadly that is very low resolution and looking at the higher res:

So higher ground in the north and mountains. The Met week ahead only suggested snow to the NE Scotland for Thursday and Friday at lowlands, they probably do not mention mountains and such like as it is not relevant to most? The gfs may also be over-hyping it?

The low at the weekend look to be hitting France, the met and gefs suggest that although any showers through the weekend could be snowy (no major dumpings).

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A strong signal for above average temperatures especially further South now showing on GEFS ensembles favouring a positive NAO with low pressure to the north and high pressure to the South. Not a great outlook with flooding becoming a major issue for some.

despite the fact the op was a mild run at the top of the pack and lots of colder runs in their lol,so not a strong signal for your guess.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Sadly that is very low resolution and looking at the higher res:

So higher ground in the north and mountains. The Met week ahead only suggested snow to the NE Scotland for Thursday and Friday at lowlands, they probably do not mention mountains and such like as it is not relevant to most? The gfs may also be over-hyping it?

The low at the weekend look to be hitting France, the met and gefs suggest that although any showers through the weekend could be snowy (no major dumpings).

Snowfall Vs Settling snow.

Not the same thing.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Sadly that is very low resolution and looking at the higher res:

So higher ground in the north and mountains. The Met week ahead only suggested snow to the NE Scotland for Thursday and Friday at lowlands, they probably do not mention mountains and such like as it is not relevant to most? The gfs may also be over-hyping it?

The low at the weekend look to be hitting France, the met and gefs suggest that although any showers through the weekend could be snowy (no major dumpings).

Could you not have let some live the dream for 5 minutes.

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Could you not have let some live the dream for 5 minutes.

HI Res GFS

And for you

Edited January 18, 2021 by winterof79

[mountain shadow]

UKMO looks good at t+144

Still in a Northerly with the Atlantic hopefully disrupting underneath.

[Methuselah]

Mein Gott in Himmel!

Were I still living in the Scottish Highlands, I'd be passing small amounts of wee-wee, on seeing charts like these . . . But, sleet south of the M4? Not so much!

    

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Sadly that is very low resolution and looking at the higher res:

So higher ground in the north and mountains. The Met week ahead only suggested snow to the NE Scotland for Thursday and Friday at lowlands, they probably do not mention mountains and such like as it is not relevant to most? The gfs may also be over-hyping it?

The low at the weekend look to be hitting France, the met and gefs suggest that although any showers through the weekend could be snowy (no major dumpings).

Actually that's untrue - all the charts on Netweather are the equivalent of the 'HD' ones on Meteociel as we use the 0.25 degree data across the board. The difference is the chart type - one is lying snow, the other is falling snow.