Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

What's not to like

Do we have the 850s for the UKMO charts do you know?

[ianmm94]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Do we have the 850s for the UKMO charts do you know?

[Singularity]

 

Guess I'm stepping in for the usual crew - though only partly; I'm not going to go much beyond this. 

We see more of a ridge holding on to the west and a better shape to the trough by the UK on the 12z run. Notice the slug of colder air moving just north of Norway on the 12z run and the cleaner sweep of the isobars down toward the UK from there. Might be fun to see whether that colder air can make it round or not - and if so how it interacts with the runners escaping the trough on the other side of the North Atlantic.

[sheikhy]

Any news on the ukmo for saturdays snow?!!still look good on the 12z?!

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

In what way do you feel they have improved?

I'm still seeing no chance of snow for us in the south. Even at day seven, uppers struggling to even get down to -4

The colder air is moving South on the ukmo run,so lets hope this trend continues.

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Do we have the 850s for the UKMO charts do you know?

They come out a bit after the main run

They don't look great but as we know there are more things to consider

Edited January 14, 2021 by winterof79

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Do we have the 850s for the UKMO charts do you know?

0 south coast.

-4 Lincoln across to Chester 

-6 farao islands

 

[MJB]

144 really is FI very uncertain as we move through next week

[Don]

2 minutes ago, ianmm94 said:

Hopeless for 850s for the Midlands south!

Edited January 14, 2021 by Don

[Matt H]

Much better from the GFS 12z this afternoon. At least there’s some interest again.

[Singularity]

 

Curiously, IDO's favourite model  has adjusted pretty much the entire Atlantic-Europe pattern a little southward.

That'd be a good trend to see continue for at least another few runs.

[ianmm94]

Look at that WAA heading up into the arctic high

 

 

compared to the last run it looks a lot more organised 

[IDO]

At t204 there is a better flow as the wedgy ridge remains open:

As mentioned earlier, this was a cluster on the gefs so could not rule out, as the London 2m temps suggested on the gefs.

[ALL ABOARD]

Oooo heights are being removed in this bout of runs across europe.. 

 

Interesting pattern... 

Few more adjustments and it would make a massive difference to the pattern next week. 

Come on Shannon let's go the other way now. 

[mountain shadow]

PARA Looking like it's 6z too. A swing back to good in the models today, Need better 850s though.

[winterof79]

Go on my san

[Singularity]

 

People bemoaning the 850s not being very low should consider the dewpoints.

Marginal Thu but low enough Fri pretty much everywhere.

As far as I can discern, the air behind the initial cold front starts out near the southern tip of Greenland.

Then, air from north of the UK starts to wrap around - this more efficiently done than in the previous few runs.

[MJB]

Snow across the South JFF of course 

[winterof79]

That is a very nice chart over the Arctic

[MJB]

Certainly a better run for 850's 

[Tim Bland]

14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any news on the ukmo for saturdays snow?!!still look good on the 12z?!

Aperge going for it again in the east after dropping it a bit earlier. Snowfall tonight Vs sat to compare below..remember is accumulates all falling snow though ...

[TSNWK]

Just now, 38.7°C said:

A nicer looking 12z,  should keep everyone quiet until Mornings 00z when the toys and dummys go flying once more

Optimistic? We have ECM in 90 minutes which has been a source of doom consistently.. be great to see that make a move for a full house of 12z positive

[phil nw.]

Yes decent attempt at Atlantic ridging at t144 by both GFS and UKMO.

GFS  then keeps the ridge going and prevents phasing of the Atlantic lows until later.This enables the jet to edge a bit further south and we keep the northerly going as the UK low clears east.Although not bitter it does begin to lower uppers from the north.

A better trend but so much uncertainty as we go into next week but trends are all we can look for at this stage.

 

[IDO]

So it still looks like d10, if everything goes right, for the colder uppers to progress through the country:

 

Having seen the previous gfs runs today, this could have been a lot worse, so good changes. We know the gfs overdoes the Atlantic so maybe it will edge better in the next few runs?

[Summerstorm]

The GEM at +144 looks pretty similar to the GFS except for the better ridge on the latter from the AH in the Atlantic keeping the two lows separated and creating some nice WAA up the eastern side of the low.  Overall the GFS looks better imo as can be seen from the charts being posted around Days 9-11 with some cooler air around -6/-8 in the mix. 

 

The other thing of note is the possible link of heights across eastern europe to the Arctic high on the GFS also wonder if that is something to keep an eye out for? 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Paul