Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wow, this isn’t going NE...i

Told ya

 

BFTP

 

Wherever it goes its just more rain away from Scotland

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ties in with Darren Bett's extended BBC forecast, however, not sure about the part where he says dry, can't see how with low heights over the UK that there wouldn't be some precipitation.

Surely they aren't expecting these sliders to head into France.. 

Edited January 17, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Allseasons-Si]

Did anyone notice that the 12z gfs/p is rolling out now?

c'mon guys catch up ay!

[Roger J Smith]

Not a big rainmaker, it's occluding so fast that dry air will circulate around except that the dry air will allow for mixed wintry shower bands to form over Irish Sea and move across the Midlands. I would expect it to be largely dry in London after whatever rain falls from its Tues-Wed evolution. Passing snow showers in Yorkshire trending to blizzards over north Yorkshire, Northumberland, Durham, Pennines and southern Scotland. 

The rest of the world will be cut off from Scotland.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Surely they aren't expecting these sliders to head into France.. 

The BBC (Darren Bett) are - yes.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Surely they aren't expecting these sliders to head into France.. 

As we get nearer the time they always do,...but i wouldn't mind that as we would be more north of the southerly tracking jet,...a win win.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The BBC (Darren Bett) are - yes.

If that's the case we would be on the cold side of jet ,for a while at least.

Stagnent ? Light continental feed?

Who knows..

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Surely they aren't expecting these sliders to head into France.. 

 

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The BBC (Darren Bett) are - yes.

The first ones - yes. They’re not going to bother for the following sets - most models now have the first one to the south of the U.K. 

 

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Did anyone notice that the 12z gfs/p is rolling out now?

c'mon guys catch up ay!

we caught up an hour ago and some charts were posted ........

Edited January 17, 2021 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

The first ones - yes. They’re not going to bother for the following sets - most models now have the first one to the south of the U.K. 

 

we caught up an hour ago and some charts were posted ........

Darren Bett is saying dry well into the extended, not just dry, very dry and seemed very confident.

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

It's a wet start to the new week for many but will the weather trend change as we move closer to the weekend?

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Darren Bett is saying dry well into the extended, not just dry, very dry and seemed very confident.

North of the jet under a col?

Could also go very cold...

[Allseasons-Si]

@bluearmy,AH! sorry,just logged on...

but the parra is stuck at 228

as for the storm this Thursday,...it should be named looking at the gefs at 90 hrs.

[Man With Beard]

42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the gefs stamps have updated at day 16 now - quite a lot of interesting options .....

Interesting comparing to the mean - very few of the ensembles look anything like that!

[Gadje]

3 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Hi Gadje, 

Discussing a day 13 mean from the GFS that's actually going out of commission because of it's notorious woeful performance, especially after the Day 10 period, right during the middle of a period of time where the models haven't got a clue what's going to happen at Day 5. 

In terms of the models today, you really do have to feel sorry for the South, specifically those south of the M4. I am not hopeful of seeing snow towards the back end of the week as far South as Birmingham, so at this point I'd put the discussed areas above at no more than a 5% chance of seeing snowfall at the end of the week. Buxton north could see quite a wintry spell again from Thursday onwards. There has been a real divide across the country so far this year, more so than I can remember normally. 

In terms of realistically understanding where we go during this complex time, a point to remember whilst reading and one that is more apparent now and will be this week more so than usual, is reading the location of the poster commenting. There will be a large difference in tone of post depending on location.

It's not a perfect scenario, but we are still in a more promising, if frustrating situation than normal - there's plenty of marginal snow events on the horizon IMO, it just depends whether the exact IMBY nature of things is snow, or rain. 

 

Thanks for the positive outlook ahead but actually my 'no comment' was from incredulity from someone posting a 13 day mean to be taken in anyway seriously.

[Allseasons-Si]

The short gefs ens are trending colder later next week!

my local and London.

[Man With Beard]

Regards it being dry in the "extended", might not want to tell anyone in Wales or Northern England just yet. Goodness knows how anyone can forecast it like that:

 

[pyrotech]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Darren Bett is saying dry well into the extended, not just dry, very dry and seemed very confident.

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

It's a wet start to the new week for many but will the weather trend change as we move closer to the weekend?

 

He does indeed, but that is meteogroup not Met Office. What i think you missed in that was what was happening with the high pressure on his chart. Longer term it looked rather interesting as it ridged in from The Atlantic into Europe, it then started to move north towards Scandinavia. A few more days on that forecast and i think a boom would be added to that forecast. 

So i think everything beyond Friday is up in the air (pun intended). However many of the different offerings from the models, including whatever Darren Betts used for his graphics, are hinting a cold in February.

How many times have we watched these type of fi offerings appear in February and come to fruition late February and early March as the days get longer and solar heating warmer. This year the offering started early and we have a good month of optimum time for snowfall.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

[pyrotech]

feb1991blizzard

I have looked for closest model and run for his forecast, i would suggest it resembles the ECM 00Z closest. I am sure Mr Betts is a mildy too, can not remember for sure. I think safest bet is to see if the chief forecaster tomorrow  aligns with that forecast when they update the outlook. I think they will hedge all bets as i suspect beyond 4 days they are not massively in a better place than us. I think the rain will be the biggest concern for next few days and changing or reviewing the alerts and warnings as that evolves. 

 

[Norrance]

There are other threads to discuss the BBC forecasts. Please stick to the models here.

Thanks.

[Kentspur]

18z is Colder in the semi reliable but then milder in fi atleast its that way around, room for improvements, some small snow possibilities and I'm in the worst location for NWlies/Westerlies so considerably better elsewhere away from the SE- 24th/25th Jan a few ensembles going for it not that these are very accurate though

Edited January 17, 2021 by Kentspur

[Man With Beard]

So I think this is all anyone needs to know about the period from this Wednesday until the following Wednesday:

Southern areas: Rain at regular intervals. Possibly snow at times 

Northern areas: Snow at regular intervals. Possibly rain at times

 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

37 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

So I think this is all anyone needs to know about the period from this Wednesday until the following Wednesday:

Southern areas: Snow at regular intervals. Possibly snow at times

Northern areas: Rain at regular intervals. Possibly rain at times

. That's better

 

 

[Snowman.]

Those GEFS far FI options almost seem to be growing, nothing concret of course but either wedges north or full blow blocks.

Something to spectate, however height rises north should not be discounted with such a slow move pattern.

[That ECM]

The high is getting bigger and not as far NW? 

[KTtom]

8 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Have a look at this analysis from 18z ...

The 1050 mb high north of Siberia has moved 17 deg west since 00z (142 to 125 E). Let's say that's a bit exaggerated by analysis error, and call it 10 deg in 18 hours -- that would bring it into the Kara Sea and near Franz Josef Land by late in the week. IIRC the 2018 beast from the east had its origins with high pressure moving southwest from Franz Josef Land. (for anyone who didn't know this, FJ Land is the cluster of islands east of Svalbard/Spitsbergen. It is Russian territory. Novaya Zemlya is the double island to the east of that closer to the Russian mainland. The New Siberian Islands are the archipelago just west of the current location of the high. 

Any acceleration of this high would be a big player especially if the Poles are right about the delayed effects of the SSW. 

(note to readers, every six hours this link is likely to update to most recent 6h analysis, next update will be new 00z position available by 0400h -- I am going to keep an eye on this anyway. But if you happen to read this after 0400h, you'll probably see the 00z chart. The 18z chart shows a high at 80N 125E)

That is one noisy chart! I can't even find the UK amongst that lot! I think the name of the chart (bottom left) speaks volumes . Talking of which, an absolute stinker of a ECM for those hoping for cold weather next week to hang on

Edited January 18, 2021 by KTtom