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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run...

    Charts has been updated

    cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

    Day 10 is always low probability, but now its even lower across the board! The SSW is certainly having an effect on the models at the moment.

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp is second behind ECM. Anyone know when it’s coming back on?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    That's better than we've seen for a few years in Jan

    image.thumb.png.2b32fcdfa10427b5aecfe6f4ab6e9d0b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC for Wednesday, you can see where the rainfall energy is coming from, a clear meeting of air masses.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    FWIW the gefs mean at d13 is similar to the last few runs from a UK perspective:

    gensnh-31-1-324.thumb.png.fd9dfd7ebf88108c0fae8f18d1d754d7.png

    However changes in the NH profile. Not really much support for the gfs op, which is not a shock and the control is with the mean. Hopefully changes will show up soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    500 hpa shows the unusual nature of the broader synoptic pattern.

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Every body looking at the next cold spell starting Thursday next week,how long

    if correct will it last for and how cold.Some suggestion of lasting longer than a four or five 

    day scenario,or if not a short mild blip before returning cold.Can the mini SSW be having 

    some effect,intriguing stuff well worth keeping a close eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC att T96, again the synoptic pattern is against the norm, and looks amazing at first glance, but the 850s are to mild for any snowfall at this point...the colder air should filter down through the next few charts..

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    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Been speaking to RJW yesterday re route ahead and he mentions (as he has on this thread) that this storm day 5 now day 4 could be a pattern shifter.  It needs something of that intensity to mix it up and maybe signs of that coming in.  Deep FI 06z showed potential heights developing to NE, 12z moreso.  Way in deep FI...but the storm isn’t 

     

    BFTP

    Spot the typo....RJS

     

    Sorry Roger 😁

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Better signs early on with low pressure in Atlantic elongating slightly stronger blocking around Greenland.

    2BF4584D-BF75-4AB7-959D-FCA29899DD45.thumb.png.6f7761e33704d0e1654c9467429604e3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC 120. 

    500 and 850s, colder air coming south. Atlantic lows nicely angled as they struggle through the soup.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Each season has its own merits but, since you press me, heavy snow
  • Location: Cambridge
    10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Don't know who this RJW is, probably some sort of a blow-in or blowhard possibly? 

    Anyway ...

    The GFS now more in line with the ECM on day 4 now, and the 12z run starting to hint that such a strong low will force the next one or two further south in its wake. Everything after about day ten is just GFS desire to retun to zonality, but you can see the cold is fairly resilient even so, it doesn't get eliminated, just reduced in dominance.

    As to rating the various models, the sad fact is no clear dominant favourite really exists, they are all verifying in a rather narrow range, to say one or the other will always be more reliable is sort of like saying Germany or Brazil will always win the World Cup, in fact, even if you said either Germany or Brazil would win, you'd often not always be wrong. (but expecting any other country to win would be lower probability still). Backing the GEM though is a bit like backing England. (ouch)

    Ouch indeed 🤣 However, you’re let off as I enjoy reading your well-researched posts too much!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I found T144 a bit disappointing considering but the -5C isotherm is further south though.

    FB99A11E-679F-4173-A958-E8CB1AB1AC53.thumb.png.31491b5b74c4a69be9ec58a57a8332a7.png5242E433-AF80-40E2-883A-E3803354486C.thumb.png.1c58a549f2e9d37dd711bb77d1b9ee97.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Tyne and Wear

    Seems to be a lot of pessimism on here today.

    In my location in the north east we have had a decent winter so far, settling snow on a few occasions and falling snow on a few more. Places higher and further inland up here have had lying snow the majority of the time since before Christmas.

    Looking at the models the cold air is never far away from Scotland and it will only take a few tweaks here or there for that to come southwards.

    We have another colder episode next weekend and then moving towards Feb (lots of winter left) the models are hinting at rising pressure to our north east. Now that we have colder air entrenched in Scandy/Eurasia if we do get the Synoptics the models are hinting at we hopefully will see widespread snow even at lower southern elevations.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    1 minute ago, Snow White said:

    Seems to be a lot of pessimism on here today.

    In my location in the north east we have had a decent winter so far, settling snow on a few occasions and falling snow on a few more. Places higher and further inland up here have had lying snow the majority of the time since before Christmas.

    Looking at the models the cold air is never far away from Scotland and it will only take a few tweaks here or there for that to come southwards.

    We have another colder episode next weekend and then moving towards Feb (lots of winter left) the models are hinting at rising pressure to our north east. Now that we have colder air entrenched in Scandy/Eurasia if we do get the Synoptics the models are hinting at we hopefully will see widespread snow even at lower southern elevations.

    The NH pattern is unfavourable to allow deep cold conditions over the U.K. especially in the South. Too much cyclonic between Scotland and Norway and an established positive NAO to allow anything other than normal winters weather.

    The SSW has already failed to deliver with the vortex all set to recover during the remainder of the winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Wont bother you guys, but I think I have a major problem 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The NH pattern is unfavourable to allow deep cold conditions over the U.K. especially in the South. Too much cyclonic between Scotland and Norway and an established positive NAO to allow anything other than normal winters weather.

    The SSW has already failed to deliver with the vortex all set to recover during the remainder of the winter.

    Any chance you can post the strat charts to back this up because that's not what's currently showing?

    I suspect you're only looking at zonal winds? 

    Many thanks. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well the path ahead looks different today, the chance of the early Greenland and arctic high link up, that ship has sailed.  But after the rain midweek, there is something still on the cards although marginal, and GFS in FI looked promising for the next chase, and maybe the one with the SSW’s true finger print on...remember it can be 2-6 weeks for the effects of the SSW to be felt in the trop. 

    ECM T168:

    0D7E6D15-144B-46E3-B889-AFF6CBD758F3.thumb.png.b71fac1232c31a1c7260fedc47d22548.png061A0829-B14F-451E-90B9-7F0AD967A807.thumb.png.c499531340c5006947d5c4d502de8f33.png

    The air is colder than you might think from just looking at the heights chart - so often this winter it has been the other way around.  Interested where this run goes in the final frames...

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Any chance you can post the strat charts to back this up because that's not what's currently showing?

    I suspect you're only looking at zonal winds? 

    Many thanks. 

    Temperatures recovering towards normal after the spike.

    C148CF79-5CBC-4E2B-B84E-1A30ACBC40C9.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The NH pattern is unfavourable to allow deep cold conditions over the U.K. especially in the South. Too much cyclonic between Scotland and Norway and an established positive NAO to allow anything other than normal winters weather.

    The SSW has already failed to deliver with the vortex all set to recover during the remainder of the winter.

    Established positive NAO? It’s been negative this whole month and is set to remain so. Disruptions continue to be evident, while it’s likely it has reached a low point don’t expect vortex to be back to normal for a long while yet.
     

    18533B64-3D5C-457B-B434-18AA9815B8EB.thumb.gif.b91c9f6527fc3974bbcabea99ebce8e9.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    No snow to speak of on the ECM away from Scottish hills. Warm front ready to swing in from the west at day 7.

      Just wondering...can we get a refund on the SSW or at least a voucher to use next winter 🤷🏻‍♂️

    A5FBA794-FBAC-4923-9612-9FB63DFB48E2.gif

    2C761DEF-E90A-42CF-8745-5D707898E2C9.gif

    just a question Tim what happend to the weather post ssws through the mid to late 90s to early 00's .....think we got alot of vouchers from then we used for 2010 !

    That chart stinks by the way!

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