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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    GEM 144...

    image.thumb.png.0b6f6a25cdbb4701560e30711dbfccb5.png

    Better than UKMO !

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    very messy at d14:

    gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.e49c9cf15f3a7d9ec6e9a97aeae18aaa.png

    With five nascent waves in mid-latitude? I would say the chances of seeing this chart repeated in our lifetimes are slim, let alone on the 18z!

    Saying that, the ecm has been less progressive with the Pacific high (MJO mixed signals?) around d8 so gfs killing it at that time frame on this run may not be out there as it looked? Certainly it looks to shake things up a bit so hopefully it will trend?

    NB: The US in Twitter-land were getting excited with the gfs forecast of the PV dropping in for a visit. This run scuppers that.

     

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  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    GEM 144...

    image.thumb.png.0b6f6a25cdbb4701560e30711dbfccb5.png

    Better than UKMO !

    and GFS, has low further north! GFS is S of M4 event, and these always trend south nearer the time

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    So far this evening GFS and GEM look decent to me.

    Not keen on ukmo though.

     

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  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Look how close we were.

    image.thumb.png.87a3fbaafc75da00f38ae42090c7eece.png

    The really annoying thing is we had no cold before when we got Easerlies, this chart below just shows you, we don't even need A1 synoptics now, this back in December would have been tame, while it is a blink and you'll miss it, it would give non marginal, heavy snow showers all down the Eastern side of England.

    image.thumb.png.8a2aac304fd6632103cba5e762f8a6fa.png

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Its round about this time every day( for the last week or so) I wheel out the come ON ecm line, with little effect so far admittedly..

    So,a change of tactic, come ON please ecm, I was always taught to use manners afterall,let's see if it works!!

    Banter aside just subtle hints of improvements for coldies, unfortunately the rain locally this week looks horrendous.

    I will cycle to work through it gladly if it means as many as possible seeing some wintry weather thereafter..

     

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  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    named storm time I think, this one cherry picked ensemble, but modeled on others too, north to be battered by blizzards and storm force winds?

     

    'gens-3-1-96.png

    '

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  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run...

    Charts has been updated

    cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales

    GFS 12z still dialling in an F10 Bomb for Thursday, support from the Jet Stream is also amplified from this mornings 06z run, MetO 12z also amplifying Thursday's Storm, but the Jet taking the Storm further east towards Denmark.  I cannot recall a Storm of 950mb located over the North Sea in my 30+ years of Storm Tracking;  Oct 87 and Jan 2007 being the most notable.   

     

    image.thumb.png.fcab47e3072024fe1f52d3643f1c0682.png

    image.png

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  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
    Just now, StingJet said:

    GFS 12z still dialling in an F10 Bomb for Thursday, support from the Jet Stream is also amplified from this mornings 06z run, MetO 12z also amplifying Thursday's Storm, but the Jet taking the Storm further east towards Denmark.  I cannot recall a Storm of 950mb located over the North Sea in my 30+ years of Storm Tracking;  Oct 87 and Jan 2007 being the most notable.   

     

    image.thumb.png.fcab47e3072024fe1f52d3643f1c0682.png

    image.png

    Would that cause a possible storm surge down the East coast, it looks frightening that chart!

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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    38 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Yes looks like we are entering a quite unsettled period Matt.Heavy rain and winds then I would imagine snowfall becoming more notable from the north from Thursday as the cold air cuts in at the rear of the low.

    Then i think we are heading for a fascinating setup with the next Atlantic lows heading across towards the UK into the cold air.It's been a while since we have seen such a setup,which could run and run.

    If you are a weather nerd then this coming period of battleground model outputs is one to enjoy.

     

    Absolutely Phill, this winter certainly hasn't been boring on the model watching front! Lots to keep us interested going through the next few weeks.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    GEM 144...

    image.thumb.png.0b6f6a25cdbb4701560e30711dbfccb5.png

    Better than UKMO !

    GEM showing snow for the south next Saturday, Sunday and Monday 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run...

    Charts has been updated

    cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

    Its not for todays run though lol

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run...

    Charts has been updated

    cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

    If you give gem an average result for that recent day which is obvs an error then it’s  doing ok since the ssw 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    21 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Second SSW in full swing right now:

     

    image.thumb.png.5dcd8d3be381197f27407a50293fcb98.pngimage.thumb.png.5b818e005464b7e260d718398b551e9a.png

     

    Things progressing nicely (strat and MJO lead - overcoming ENSO influence). Looks like a much more interesting last third of Jan & into Feb.

    😊

    A potential easterly flow could well be the next point of interest in modelling terms as we get into next week. Lots going on 🙂 

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales

    The Storm is forecast to bag out Friday as it moves further north and east, I would anticipate that the wraparound northerly will be markedly reduced in strength come Friday, to that effect minimising any notable storm surge down the east coast .... Nonetheless  the north sea not the most hospitable of places come Thursday 

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  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Its not for todays run though lol

    Come on...

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  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    Just now, Vikos said:

    Come on...

    He he😉

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  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
  • Location: Isle of Anglesey Wales
    5 minutes ago, Nath said:

    Would that cause a possible storm surge down the East coast, it looks frightening that chart!

    The Storm is forecast to bag out Friday as it moves further north and east, I would anticipate that the wraparound northerly will be markedly reduced in strength come Friday, to that effect minimising any notable storm surge down the east coast .... Nonetheless  the north sea not the most hospitable of places come Thursday, Sorry for the duplication .. I don't post often 🙂  Spent most of my forum time over the years on the GPS SpeedSurfing Site running the UK StormTrack Topic.

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  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

    GFS in deep FI shows how a Scandi-esque high can pop up out of the blue. Been waiting since the SSW for a chart like that to appear.  Also demonstrates how heights to our south aren't necessarily a problem if they can get sucked north.

    Edited by Alexis
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