Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[MJB]

Could this give us an E/NEly ?

[That ECM]

That’s a start.

[MJB]

Not far from being good

[Allseasons-Si]

Well i was going to say look at the heights building to our north 192>,...and this happens,oh yes!!!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Re-amplification train just departed, arrival in FI of a stonking griceland ridge, this is going to be an 80's run!

Just need it to count down to T0!  You just never know these days!

[Chesil View]

Interesting developments mid term on the 12z GFS with yet another slowing of the inroads any mild air makes after the initial cold burst later next week. 

[stratty]

All aboard!!! 

 

What could possibly go wrong?!

 

[chris55]

53 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Icon 144

 

 

Looks like the Atlantic is loosing a bit of the momentumt. Haven't checked all the charts yet this afternoon but goes along with the theme of EC this morning.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well i was going to say look at the heights building to our north 192>,...and this happens,oh yes!!!

That's why the parallel is having issues, it's been promoted to the Op! 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, snow mad said:

By the time we get there it will all be gone and we’ll be looking at the middle of February. Need to face facts every decent model run has been getting watered down as it approaches. There have been some fantastic Synoptics to view but in reality it’s been poor

Wow, that’s one of the most glass half empty posts I’ve ever seen! 

I have personally been enjoying model watching more this year than any winter for the last 5 years, and we’ve had some decent snow to boot. 

With a weaker than normal Polar vortex, ongoing SSW effects and a southerly tracking jet stream, there’s plenty to look forward to in my book. It might not give us countrywide white outs but if model watching is your hobby, there’s plenty to keep us all interested over the next 6-8 weeks. 

[northwestsnow]

Unfortunately ukmo looks flatter than gfs at 144...

Gfs is a good run to !! 

[Don]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately ukmo looks flatter than gfs at 144...

Gfs is a good run to !! 

As I said last night, it would be typical for the UKMO to downgrade today, only for the GFS/ECM to upgrade!  Will be interesting to see what the ECM shows later.

[Methuselah]

I'll have a 'P' please, Bob?      

 

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately ukmo looks flatter than gfs at 144...

Gfs is a good run to !! 

Bit like my front room, not much in it

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Bit like my front room, not much in it

Agreed.

One has to zoom in..

Ps you posted gfs twice lol.

Edited January 17, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Bit like my front room, not much in it

They are both the same charts there pal...

but i see that you have corrected it but the gfs is more amplified in the Atlantic.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[snow mad]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Wow, that’s one of the most glass half empty posts I’ve ever seen! 

I have personally been enjoying model watching more this year than any winter for the last 5 years, and we’ve had some decent snow to boot. 

With a weaker than normal Polar vortex, ongoing SSW effects and a southerly tracking jet stream, there’s plenty to look forward to in my book. It might not give us countrywide white outs but if model watching is your hobby, there’s plenty to keep us all interested over the next 6-8 weeks. 

Hi Paul it may seem like glass half empty but from my position it’s reality. Lovely model watching but on the ground here has been a wash out. I still hope we get some of the white stuff but it has the feeling of one of those years. Hope is all we have the promised land keeps getting pushed back.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

They are both the same charts there pal...

That’s why there’s not much in it changed thanks & northwestsnow

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, snow mad said:

Hi Paul it may seem like glass half empty but from my position it’s reality. Lovely model watching but on the ground here has been a wash out. I still hope we get some of the white stuff but it has the feeling of one of those years. Hope is all we have the promised land keeps getting pushed back.

Maybe next year is THE year with an Easterly QBO .........................I'm still hopeful of a decent fall of snow this Winter

[Allseasons-Si]

This is going to turn into a stonker of a run,...fl i know

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Excitement building a tad lads..

Quick one from me..Very unsettled conditions next week with a risk of serious flooding in places..so do be careful if your out and about. More of interest to me is that the Deep Low enters the North Sea on Friday.. and could bring gale force Ntlys...This will also bring a snow risk also..Marco P just gave this the possible heads up.. so there's alot going on...Could be fireworks towards backend of next week..what comes next is anyones guess..

Edited January 17, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MJB]

Interesting so far 

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

Maybe next year is THE year with an Easterly QBO .........................I'm still hopeful of a decent fall of snow this Winter

That will likely fail again. I don't trust the QBO, something looks to have changed recently with it.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Radiating Dendrite

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, stratty said:

All aboard!!! 

 

What could possibly go wrong?!

 

Our expectations that's what

[Singularity]

The 12z GFS is at long last a run that shows the sort of impact I’ve been thinking the deep cold and HLB close to our north ought to have on the upper right flank of a broad trough: The circulation gets disrupted with a secondary low developing and peeling away east and the cold air tucking in behind it.

ECM’s been close on a couple of runs but never quite made it. Perhaps it might have on D11 or 12 of those runs.

Anyway - this sort of detail tends not to show up well in ensembles past about a weeks range so if it’s going to happen we’re unlikely to know with any confidence for a few more days yet.