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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, MJB said:

Deepest of FI and again JFF , LP delivers snow for the UK ............

image.thumb.png.5012cde985359a34f3dc3f80cbeeff00.png

And it just goes to show that 300+ hours is still only 31st Jan. Lots of fun and games ahead yet, with Feb still to come.

Edited by Paul_1978
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snow mad Enthusiast

snow mad

Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk
Posted
12 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

And it just goes to show that 300+ hours is still only 31st Jan. Lots of fun and games ahead yet, with Feb still to come.

By the time we get there it will all be gone and we’ll be looking at the middle of February. Need to face facts every decent model run has been getting watered down as it approaches. There have been some fantastic Synoptics to view but in reality it’s been poor

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted (edited)

Why didn't the gfs para 06z run? Is that a common occurrence?

Edited by O'Maille80
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Why didn't the gfs para 06z run? Is that a common occurrence?

"30-day parallel test is temporarily stopped. Runs will be usually still available but with some missing." 

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted
51 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Given your location legritter, I'd be inclined to pitch a tent up at Crooks Peak if it's snow you're after the way things are going on

Yes quite often in these possible synoptics there's Snow up there, lets hope we can get some upgrades over the coming days from the charts cheers .

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Well well well!...

the ICON is looking much colder/better from 144>.

 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well well well!...

the ICON is looking much colder/better from 144>.

 

Any idea why the shift? (family life getting in the way of weekend model watching here ) 

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Gustywind Enthusiast

Gustywind

Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Any idea why the shift? (family life getting in the way of weekend model watching here ) 

Looks like the trough to the NE of U.K. is less deep than previous?

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Hopefully the UKMO is correct at day 4 and the low deepens further east and not sat over the UK.

The GFS looks horrible at day 4 with the low deepening rapidly over northern parts .

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Pwahhhh I love German models....iconic 12z..Ja das wetter ist gut Ja Ja Ja wunderbar! ❤️ 

038571C7-7849-4E7A-8B4C-41BF000A471D.thumb.png.2f8ecb08a255245bc71d7bd9ed55a5fe.png5460262E-D71D-4D67-9518-631E31B459EC.thumb.png.454edf91b1acd797ca636b2caac414a1.png164B7492-EEE6-485D-A52C-A10661A1C5C3.thumb.png.d279deb41af54e98abb3bb7bffe7ee5f.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted

For lovers of 6C, gale force winds and fast-moving showers, this wee stinker is for you... Enjoy!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Interesting developments upstream on the GFS.

Continuing from its earlier run its trying to re-amplify that upstream troughing by day 6.

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

For lovers of 6C, gale force winds and fast-moving showers, this wee stinker is for you... Enjoy!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Aww, it will feel much colder than 6C in those gale force winds! 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting developments upstream on the GFS.

Continuing from its earlier run its try to re-amplify that upstream troughing by day 6.

Yep, that's something I've been keeping an eye on.  Next Sunday maybe of interest to the southern contingent!

image.thumb.png.1f4c1cc193a63f028199db862b28f4c0.pngimage.thumb.png.f89e9534d945e8df069a4f2d6ce545ae.png   

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

We could be about to head into slider territory? A waste of space, over here, but inland...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, Ice Day said:

Yep, that's something I've been keeping an eye on.  Next Sunday maybe of interest to the southern contingent!

image.thumb.png.1f4c1cc193a63f028199db862b28f4c0.pngimage.thumb.png.f89e9534d945e8df069a4f2d6ce545ae.png   

 

As long as that shortwave north UK doesn’t phase with energy from that upstream troughing it could develop with a bit more interest. Day 7 it’s trying to eject a shortwave se wards .

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
20 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

For lovers of 6C, gale force winds and fast-moving showers, this wee stinker is for you... Enjoy!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Well it's not every day you can see  strong northwestly winds with Africa been the source ?‍♂️

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Pressure a tad higher to north not sure anything is going to come of it though.

D446C623-2D85-4BF0-8B2D-4347E9DAED16.thumb.png.51545340e44a6be4d79cb98b10002db6.png759EAB59-E6BB-44E5-A180-B55110B0DD1D.thumb.png.c72e81663d32918c0da9399c7e9e6783.png

The Arctic high is trying to force that troughing south , if we lose the Greenie Ridge west the only saviour after that is the Arctic high . 

Heights lifting near Iceland now ! 

Edited by nick sussex
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, IDO said:

I think the latest Met Office Warnings sums it up for next week:

1199985889_Screenshot2021-01-17at12_18_33.thumb.png.37345c5e31f4345c71d1aa8bbdaf5e03.png 114-777UK.thumb.gif.9b6b4fd52fea918077ef54cb81cd00ee.gif

For the North, rain Tuesday, Wednesday and some of Thursday. No mention of snow atm.

The south gets the worst of it on Thursday. Rain totals above for the end of Thursday! Some regions getting 125% of their Jan averages in a few days!

Surely that's summing up Tuesday to Thursday lunchtime? Not next week as a whole? Looking very very wet Tuesday to Thursday, hopefully flooding will be minimal. The colder air digs south later on Thursday, so any mention of snowfall would be into Friday and the weekend.

Edited by chris55
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Changes upstream on this run with the Pacific ridge MIA:

12z>125213688_gfsnh-0-222(1).thumb.png.06e0d92308969ff2daa65e61fc7170e4.png 06z>1071573466_gfsnh-0-228(2).thumb.png.71d905183b7fb57fc6a952282d907ae3.png

We will see where that takes us on this run? It could allow the Arctic wedge to change course? Normally I would say less amplification=downgrade, but these are unusual times!

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The only real consistency is the rise in pressure over Iberia due to a trough anchoring in the Atlantic. Beyond that I would keep an open mind on how things develop as we have the models trying to decipher the trajectory of first the Greenland cut off high, and then a second high being pushed into the pole by the Pacific/Alaskan ridge in the 5-7 day range.

The 12z GFS shows this nicely by flipping the European pattern in a matter of a couple of days with an east/north easterly setting up as WAA from the Iberian high breaks off north of the U.K.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Well, bearing in mind the FI is around day 4, the GFS 240 is even more JFF than usual.  However, it's showing some deep cold approaching from the NE

image.thumb.png.b43024299e4043266c4a0ba070a6c92b.pngimage.thumb.png.79d285eada49d1ce7fa14b2d38d1154a.png  

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Re-amplification train just departed, arrival in FI of a stonking griceland ridge, this is going to be an 80's run!

image.thumb.png.48dcfd424cb1b2d8eabfc6056779c004.png

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